Member Info for potnak

I find it strange that quite a few of the cheerleaders here, those that mock the anxious investors. Would be willing to take a lie ball offer. A pound is a £135 million market cap. That's less than the all time high here. If the science is as good as all the armchair scientists say it is then if by some miracle all compounds got to market, they would have a combined valuation of around 12 billion dollar possibly more. And thats on only 1 indication for each compound. You can work back from that figure and apply discounts for valuations at each milestone stage. The high valuation for 737 at this stage is £2 per share and if 1801 goes through the tox study, ready for phase 2, that adds another 2 to 3 pound. Get 1802 through phase 1 and you have another £1. At the end of a successful phase 2, these figures could be double or triple that. Personally, I'd like the board to push into phase 2 but any offers before then would need to compensate for the potential upside. IMO, TO talk should be starting at £500 million. You can take a pound I'd rep, when the time comes, some will but I want tolhecboard to see this through and I'm willing to be patient. However, none if the above can happen unless Sareum are funded. That is and has always been the thing that hold them back.

Everyone talks of what they would take, even grab but hardly ever talk of fair value. Let's leave sareum out of it, for now. A compound, any compound at the end of a successful phase 2 would be worth around £800 million. John R even pointed us at done deals as evidence

We had a director buy, less than 2 weeks ago and we're likely still in a closed period. I think the bed and isa trades will follow in the next few weeks as no immediate rush. All IMO of course.

Yep, Laz. I will kerp buying too.

No explanation from me, PC. The timer is reset. No major SP movement until Q4 this year. Until yesterday, I hadn't been here for days. Only came because I spent a couple of hours looking at valuations and how a value might be arrived at. Something else I found out yesterday. In valuation terms, a successful extended tox study doesn't really add value but does reduce the percentage of the discount applied by a little.

I will pop in here as and when I get the urge but my plan is to have a nice spring and summer I start to think about sareum.

They have indicated they will publish the results in a peer reviewed journal. That doesn't mean it will BE peer reviewed. I'm not sure what benefit this will bring. I think it is something to keep the shareholders happy whilst not really bringing anything to the table.

My father in law was a specialist welder. Tungsten and other hard metals. The firm he worked at was one of the suppliers on the channel tunnel boring. Despite being flown all over the UK and offshore Rigs, his salary was a pittance. But I also know an NDT engineer, litterally the guy who tests the welds and his salary was triple my father in law. Never made sense to me.

Sareum Asset Speculative Valuation (Broker Analyst - UK - April 1, 2025):

Based on a simplified risk-adjusted NPV approach:

* SRA737 (Pre-Combo Trial - 63.5% Sareum): Speculative Value Range: £95M - £381M

* SDC-1801 (Post-Phase 1a - 100% Sareum): Speculative Value Range: £36M - £288M

* SDC-1802 (Pre-Clinical - 100% Sareum): Speculative Value Range: £10M - £80M

Combined Speculative Value Estimate:

The combined speculative value range for these three assets is estimated at £141 million to £749 million.

Key Points:

* Highly speculative and relies on significant assumptions (trial success, market size, etc.).

* Reflects potential upside but significant risks of drug development, especially at early stages.

* Not financial advice; further research is essential.

Disclaimer: This is a highly speculative analysis based on limited information and should not be taken as financial advice. Drug development is inherently risky.

I spent an hour talking with AI about sareum this afternoon. Correcting some incorrect assumptions and asked for min/max valuations using industry standard valuation techniques. My next post is the summary of the value right now. It's about right, I'd say and will only increase with data. Hopefully, Parker is aiming at the max value estimate.

Mm's can't hold shares. They try to ballance the books each day. A broker for the insti may trickle shares in though.

I dont know Aber, would they have raised if they really thought they could sell before they needed the cash? I said yesterday, that 737 shouldn't be the mechanism that 'could' provide fund the progress everything else. IMO, 737 should be a seperate strategy. If it pays off, great. If it doesn't then there is plan in place for the TYK2 regardless.

It's amazing to see posters flip from negative to positive in the blink of an eye. Its like a twice yearly event for us shareholders. I'm not convinced and my expectation will stay low until we see something tangible. Parker was rumoured to say, thus will be the last AGM. And now it appears he said SP will be higher by the next update. Or something like that. He can't help himself, it's along the lines of form an orderly queue. He can't help himself. IMO, with delays, there is a high probability that there will be another AGM as the tox study data is needed to progress. We wouldnt be doing it otherwise. And a higher sp by the next update. Should be dead easy from here. The next update with be year end results. 6 months from now.

Like I said, I'm ok with this. I've got 2026 for proper news as my expectation.

I had to take a customer call just as the Q&A started, typical but will wait for the recording. I thought preamble tonthd Q&A was more science oriented than usual. I guess to get us not to dwell on delays elsewhere. I'm not sure if I believe the dirty/clean compound scenario. I believe that they needed to manufacture more but surely the risk assessment was done very early on? Something about this doesn't ring true. Especially as they have given themselves another 3 months to deliver it. How long does it take to manufacture a few grams of the compound? My guess is there was a f*ck up and they didn't realise they needed to manufacture more until we were well into their timescales. This last few weeks has been an exercise in damage limitation.

All done now. Back to sitting on our hands.

It's the blind faith that triggers me. The RNS first started talking about taking TYK2 into trials in 2018! Its 7 years and we still only have 1a in the bag. I think the board were over reliant on 737 bringing something up the table but it never quite got there. For me, it's always been the about cash needed to progress. As in there has never been enough so we move from placing to placing at a snails pace. 737, even now shouldnt be look at as the mechanism to progress 1801. The TYK2 compounds need to stand on their own two feet. If they can't monetise them after the tox study. Then questions will be asked if they ever will. It was clear when 737 was handed back and looking at the final results that a raise would be needed. But staying that here, just gets you derision and claims if an agenda. I get it. I was was on that side of the fence until a few years ago. But if you are too attached to the share, you can't see the wood for the trees. You only have to zoom out a little and it's all there for you to make more reasoned decisions.

For me, forget 737. We can't afford to do anything with it right now. If Parker can get something for for it great but it shouldn't be part of the TYK2 strategy. We've got around 15 months of cash runway. The board need to use that wisely. And whatever the plan is. Stick to it.

Hi JD. Go here, register, find Sareum, the register for the call. https://www.investormeetcompany.com/

To be fair, Bailiff. There isn't a reason for the sp to drop. We are exactly where we were yesterday. Without second RNS, the update is just a formality that they are required to give. Too many unanswered question but I think we may get further RNS's in the coming weeks, once the regulatory bits are done.

Except, it wasn't, Parker it was Reader and that isn't what he said and it wasn't in that context, mrdigit. But I get what you are saying. 🙄

Who said it was a donkey, celtic. All I'm saying is somehow. The board have ended up at the point where they are forced to give an update and they don't appear to have anything by way of progress to report It's almost as though we shouldn't listen to anything they say. Let's see what they tell us tomorrow and what they say regarding timelines.

Yes, agreed, Aber. GF asked today, why do I stay invested. The simple answer is, I go on what board tell me. In Dec, they said tox study should start early next year. 'Should' doing some heavy lifting there but nethertheless, I thought, well that's not long to wait. Now we are nearly on Q2 with no update do that gets me thinking why. The The binary outcome thing in the Edison report is new, they've never included that before. Yes, we all know what it means but it's something that the board wanted to get out there. Setting the expectations of a bumpy ride. I only care if I'm right for my own investment. Couldn't care less about what everyone else does. I don't say on told you so. I said we'd need to raise way back in January, got derided for it. Truth us, I was expecting it, so when the RNS landed, It was just a shoulder shrug from me.

I haven't sold any shares here since 2022.

Yes, I have low expectations re immediate value. I think the "be patient" window might be stretched a bit but if Parker and the board can steady the ship with some confidence, not bs, then 12p might actually be the bottom. I've bet another £3k this month that I'm right.

The 250k is defo a buy. It's a higher price than my buy. Anything over 12.3 is defo a buy. The early morning sells were probably buys too.