Member Info for potnak

I liked Ahfam, I think it was the RF fiasco that finally did it. He spent years saying it was the month of the rerate. He was right in a way. We 're rated' to 10p. He also had to sell half his holding when his father died. Looking back,he got an amazing price compared to today's SP.

nice post, damion. so going on those numbers between 1 and 2 million for the trial . i believe running costs are between 3 and 500k a quarter. 16 weeks plus a month, say 21 weeks minimum from start date. back of *** pactet calculations for cash burn, using the higher figures would suggest we'll have £1mill left in q4 25. we'll know more in the march financial update. it's going up be tight though.

Hi Gunner, it was 800 million. There was nothing to deny though. There was a question someone asked and Tim said they shared some sector valuations, one of them being 800 million, Tim said something like 1801 would be in that region. This was for a Phase 2 compound though. Can't remember which one. Ahfam used to have a handy list of sector deals that he usesd to post here too. It was on that list. If you search back through the RNS's. You will find The values the company shared. The figure is kind of irrelevant until we get into phase 2. Tim never said the compound was worth 800 million, he just pointed out that, if all goes well, by the end of phase 2,other compounds are worth 800 million. Everyone here (including me) then joined the dots but they made a few up to change the picture.

IMO, 737 holds no value until we are told otherwise. If shareholders think there is value in 737, we'll take another hit, if it gets shelved at the end of March. The way I see it is. The compound looks like it has potential as per the science posts but the costs to prove it doesn't add up for smaller biotechs.

Ha ha, double teamed by the sanctumony brothers. I read Sog's reply and broke my cathartic policy of treating his post of no value to me, just me. I'm sure others get a warm glow from them. Yes, sog, I have only ever bought on the open market. Mainly because the sp has historically always fallen below the placing price. I sold up fully once on a spike and bought back in a few days later once the ramping has stopped. Managed to increase my holding by 30% and it only took a couple of £9.50 trades to do so. I've traded a small percentage of my pot on spikes but always said so here, much to the derision of posters here. Then I find out loads of others did too. Not one if you came forward at the time though. Says a lot. Ive said before, I will be here long after the large holders have sold out. I still buy on payday. Basically what ever is left my current account, disposable income. Usually between 300 and £500. I do this, just in case something stops. However, and I dont think, you can why anyone would do this. If I were new to sar, no way would I put cash in right now. Too risky until we have something to prop up the sp.

You guys are litterally arguing with someone who holds shares, think there is massive potential and is regularly buying. He also isnt afraid of questioning bullish narrative of some here and pointing out the risks involved. Do what I do. Scroll past the posts that offer you no value. No need to insult, just jog on.

PC - Just like sog, you can't help but be condescending. You make a comment, which invites other comments then you throw your hands in the air, not me guv, you're supposibly intelligent, you need to chill. Like I said the other day. A small group here have killed off the discourse. There is no discussion, just veiled and not so veiled insults. The hand ringing sycophants will be watching with glee. Well done.

I have very rarely critised Parker or the board. It is however the boards responsibity to run the company in a way that add value for the shareholders. It isn't critism to point out where they might not have done that.

It's is also the boards responsibility to communicate strategy and where possible deliver what they say they will. Again, it isnt critism to point out where they didn't do this. As a shareholder, all I want is a plan and for them to stick to it. They're not amatures in this AIM game but the outcomes and backlash from shareholders always seem to suprise them. In reality, If they had stuck to the 1a, 1b in psoriasis patients strategy, it would be completed by now and if successful we would be sat on a higher SP now. It isn't critism to point out that by pivoting, they didnt deliver on what they said they would. Yes, we'd still need to do the tox study but sentiment if shareholders and the wider market would be more upbeat than it is right now. I don't do I told you so and I'm not really that interested as in my mind it's already baked in. But I believe, if we don't get anything from 737 in the short term. they will need to reduce costs or raise anywhere between now and the summer. We will know more when the finance results are released in March. Aldi, the longer we go without a start date for the tox study, the longer it is until we get data. If the AI summary of cash burn is close. We'll have burnt thfough another £500k in a few weeks time. The board have a tough job, not least trying to get to a deal before running out of cash. But, at the end of the day, that us their job, they are paid well for it and have done chunky options, should it go well.

The buck stops with them though. Not market manipulation. It's now two months since p1a data was signed off. Is that enough time to spin up a tox study. I don't know. Genuinely, I don't know.

There is an awful lot of stuff posted here about the business side of things. IMO, the board didn't do a great job back when shares in circulation and SP were more favourable. However, that is water under the bridge,we are where we are. The science means nothing if we run out of cash before we can get a deal. There are loads of posters here who eoukd rather blame Mm's, PH, spivs but the truth is the Share Price refects the sentiment of potential investors. Not those who already hold. Anyone looking to buy here will know there is a risk of a discounted raise and dillution. The last raise, HNWI and institutional has already lost a combined £600k since Oct. Yeah, Sareum got the cash but the investors are now out of pocket and it isn't the first time. Not sure how many more times this can happen. We need news and or a deal. Otherwise, we all face more dillution.

Just asked for a comprehensive report on the last financial results and compared to previous year's, make an estimate for future cash burn. The full report is to big and can't be posted here so I asked for a summary, which below. The point is, if you belive the earlier chatgpt put the you woukd need to believe this one.

AI outout

Sareum Holdings PLC, a biotech company focused on developing treatments for autoimmune diseases and cancer, is in a delicate financial position. As of June 30, 2024, their cash balance was £1.4 million, while their operating loss for the year was £4.6 million . However, it's important to note that operating loss includes non-cash expenses like depreciation. A more realistic estimate of their cash burn rate, based on historical data, is around £0.5 million per quarter .

This means Sareum has a cash runway of roughly 11 months based on their current cash balance and estimated burn rate . They will likely need to raise additional capital within the next 6 to 12 months to continue funding their operations, particularly the clinical trials for their lead drug candidate, SDC-1801 .

There are a few factors that could significantly impact Sareum's cash situation. Firstly, the costs of clinical trials can vary greatly, and as Sareum progresses SDC-1801 through different phases, their burn rate could increase . Secondly, they have a history of licensing their technology, which can bring in upfront payments and milestones, but this revenue stream can be unpredictable, as seen with the recent termination of their SRA737 license agreement . Lastly, Sareum has raised capital through share issues in the past, and they may need to do so again in the future, which could dilute existing shares .

Despite the need for funding, Sareum shows promise in the autoimmune disease and cancer treatment markets with its drug candidates . Their lead candidate, SDC-1801, has shown a favorable safety profile in Phase 1 clinical trials and has the potential to address significant unmet medical needs . Investors should keep a close eye on Sareum's progress in clinical trials, their ability to secure non-dilutive funding, and their overall financial performance .

Hi Laz, like all LLM's the chatgpt output is a direct result of the prompt. They can be useful in summerising large amounts of info but you have to be careful not to input your own bias or it just becomes another echo chamber. With small subtle changes to the prompt, I could could get a bullish or bearish output. I use gemini mainly because it comes with my phone. There is a deep research tool include abd I created my own report on sareum. It search 55 websites including LSE and the output was essentially like somthing you would get from Edison. Nothing new. But if I were to ask it to point out the positives or negatives, It would bias the report in the way I ask.

i'll tell you what else is cathartic. coming here as a lth and one who is still holding and will possibly hold way past the point where other will sell up. posting a couple of posts then living rest free on the heads of the self appointed protector of the board. it warm my ****les. see you all in few days, if i can be bothered to be 'owned' made me laugh that one.

And Meg, seriously. Nobody says owned any more.

A tiny lapse.

I dont disagree About SOG's knowledge but the discourse on this group has all but gone. SOG and a few others here have been instrumental in killing of what used to be a good board. There is also a small group of sycophantic followers who revel in the put downs, seemingly oblivious to whether the information is factual or not. I haven't read one onr of SOGs posts for months. He's not blocked but I have this cathartic system of when I see his name, I scroll past, never to look again. Now the work woke has be uttered, it may well be the end. Sad really, because it used to be good here.

I'm with PC. We already know all the news that is due. There isnt anything the board can shout about. So why spend cash trying to do so? We know what the plan is, we know the timescales for those plans. I've no idea how long it takes to spin up tox study on animals but by my reckoning, they've had a good 6 weeks now.

We know the 737 is going back to ICR/CPF, the market has largely discounted that for now. For 737, IMO, the can will be kicked down the road again. In the guise of "reviewing the data". Possibly until Q3 when hopefully, it won't matter to us shareholders so much. On cash burn. If the board are confident on a positive outcome to the tox study. I'd hope that a salary sacrifice in leiu of share options is considered. Personally, I think that would be seen as a positive move by the shareholders.

I will say, it isn't frustrating, if you frame the timescales to what we know. Q3 for me, could extend into Q4 if the tox study doesn't start in Q1. It's as simple as that. Until we know more, we wait, as has always been the way.

I don't have an opinion on whether it will pass or fail the study. Just that if there was no risk, we wouldn't need to do it.

Parkers comments from final results below. Essentially, we can't sell it as a Phase 2 ready compound until the study is done.

Feedback from potential commercialisation partners was that they didn't see the benefit of a short validating Phase 1b trial because the TYK2 target is now clinically validated, and saw more benefits in taking the programme straight into Phase 2 trials. We are therefore going to get the programme Phase 2 ready for positive reasons rather than any negative reasons arising from the Phase 1 trial.

Parker said something like"we were advised". So maybe not asked. Risking a sanctimonious reply pointing out my ignorance here but Someone wants proof that next gen TYK2 dont have the associated risks of legacy TYK2 and any deal will be dependant on a positive outcome of the study. The only reason to deal now is to get in at a lower price. With nothing (known) to hold up the sp, an unknown cash burn and a risk, however small that the study fails to deliver means an uncertain wait until late summer at the very least. I will hold my hand up, if something does come along but for. I'm ok with the timescales.

Parker said something like"we were advised". So maybe not asked. Someone wants proof

I'll eat my hat, if there is any trigger pulled before we have preliminary Tox Study data back. If it is important that we do the study, have been asked to do the study and it adds value. Why would any trigger be pulled before we have some data? The only scenario where a deal could come before is if we dont start the study and someone wants in at a discount. This could still happen but once we have confirmation of trial start then we are locked in until Q3.