Member Info for potnak

Bit further ahead on Psoriasis and Lupus than SAR but are sitting on a 466 million dollar market cap.

I believe in parker and his ability to do a deal, I just don't buy the platudes he dishes out. It felt like he couldn't wait to close the AGM meeting yesterday. I wasn't in the room so critism from me but he defo wanted to be off record.

Hi Steve. Why do you think a deal will be done before we have results of ex Tox study? Genuine question. The company raised and dilluted to pay for the ex Tox study because it adds value. Why wouldn't they wait until that extra value has been realised? It feels obvious to me but I'm am genuinely interested in the opposite opinion.

Have a good one PC.

My posts are always meant for discussion. I've never had any other agenda than getting a good return on my investment.

IMO

You can post here whether you hold or not

You can post about trading

You can post your concerns

None of the above mean you have an "agenda" . And your comment re my comment just proves that others aren't interested in discussion. You could have just scrolled by or discussed. Just like I could have.

All opinions are valid.

Here's to another year of discussion.

Sector standard valuations are approx 800 million dollars for phase 2 ready compounds. If the board can prove synergies with 1801 and 2 in regards to safety, in a small phase 1, then there is no reason why 1802 shouldn't be worth 800 million dollars too. If 737 brings some value to the table then closer to 2 billion than 1. A TO offer might come with a discount but yes, 500 million would seem on the low side.

Personally, I still think the board are pursuing a licence and I don't give much credence to Parker saying "if there is a AGM next year" he is a veteran when dealing with long term shareholders and the AGM quote is no different to "form an orderly queue" or the dozens of other platitudes we've been given over the years. We've heard it all before.

I still think the appointment of Oberon is to introduce more HNWI or institutional investment into the mix just in case plan A (license) doesn't materialise. If Sareum are in a poker game (I believe they have been) then we may need some backing to win this hand.

All in all. We end 2024 in a good position and all eyes are on Jan 25 for something on 737.

IMO, we have at least another year of arguing with each other on here.

Not much the board can tell us to be fair. Also, any AGM, I been too, not many. The room, despite being vocal beforehand, goes silent. I guess because the attendees dont want to sound stupid. Which is entirely understandable. The questions when the board mingle in the room will be more telling. Hopefully, some attendees will feed back here.

The AGM statement doesn't give us anything we don't already know. I can't remember any AGM that lifted the SP. They are regulatory at best. Nice to see some sort of timescales for the tox study. Mid 2025. I reckon data will follow towards the end of Q3 maybe Q4. If anyone does get get a chance today. Maybe quiz Parker on the appointment of Oberon as joint broker. They aren't very big and look to specialise in putting clients with companies which screams fundraising rather than licensing to me. They aren't actually doing very well themselves either. I'm not opposed to fundraising for Phase 2 but I'd hope it can be done at a much higher price that today so they can minimise the dillution. And before people jump on me. That my take on Oberon. Doing phase 2 self funded, keeps us firmly in the buyout territory.

The AGM statement doesn't give us anything we don't already know. I can't remember any AGM that lifted the SP. They are regulatory at best. Nice to see some sort of timescales for the tox

Good news on the face of it but yes as Gunner points out. Multiple large holders increase the possibility of low offers. Especially if the holding is purchased cheaply. To some extent Sareum has always been I the hands of small private investors and that protected the small investors, somewhat.

Apologies for using wrong years, I just condensed everything. Depending on start of Tox study. At least 6 months to complete means a Q3 25 for data, license by the end of the year. If good data of course. P2 trial underway in 26 completed mid to late 26. P2 data in 27. Not sure where any time can be saved there. 1802, should add significant value but not until 1801 has done the groundwork. Anyway, I'm done for today. Don't have the time or energy for a pile on today.

Licence = getting into bed, partner. A TO means we take the money and run. Separated. Jeez, the anxiety a little post can generate. Imagine trawling back through posts to try and prove someone doesn't mean what they say they mean. The IM presentation was clear in what the strategy is. Parker hasn't done anything wrong.

Licence

I must admit. I'm a bit perplexed with all the TO talk. The ones talking TO's must have watched a different IM presentation to me. Parker was pretty clear on the strategy. Ex Tox study adds value, then we go to market for a licence. Whilst I know that offers can and could be made. I am prepared for a late 26 or early 27 licence deal.

I don't think the release of 1801 P2 data is price sensitive anyway. We already know the phase 1 trial was successful. The peer review is just that, an unbiased review of the results.

Also in agreement re buyouts or licences. IMO, we won't get either or chase either until extended tox study completes. Why enhance value if you don't wait until it has enhanced value? 737 is the key point. As Sareum are just beneficiaries of any deal, then they could argue, they wait for news like the rest of us. The NOMAD will have advised accordingly.

Taking options now, probably means open market which also means. No known price sensitive news due and no official negotiations. I guess, they could argue that 737 news is an unknown though. Parker spoke about this on the IM. There aren't many windows of opportunity for directors to but or take options. We are obviously in one of the windows now.

Carter, you are playing a MMORPG and you don't even know it. Finding information that backs up your beliefs and discounting information that doesn't. Piecing together puzzles, trying to get to get other onside. Those that don't get onside are asleep. I watched my brother almost descend into mental illness with Qanon, Trump, vaccines from 2018 to 2023. He's much less intense now. But the rest of the family are worried because he's now latch onto the the drones thing. We all do it to some extent and there is a good book the Idiot Brain by Dean Burnett that delves into why our brain does this. The Irrational Ape by David Robert Grimes is a good read too. If you call yourself a critical thinker, you should read one or both of them.

Sareum are hopefully, about to get into bed with big pharma.

Carter, it "dissappeared" because we're weren't mixing with each other.

It does make me wonder why modern science deniers would invest in modern science, especially in a compound as complex as the TYK2 family. There is nothing natural about Sareum's compounds. It's pure science.

When my dad was in the early stages of his lung cancer, my brother (anti vac, Trump fan) bought him, all sorts of seeds and powders. When the consultants found out, they gave him a proper dressing down and so they should. Family or not, it's idiotic. Chemo and radiotherapy have home and extra 12 months.

I hope you are OK PC. I have direct family who work in the NHS so I know how hard it is. The NHS is underfunded by a long way. It isn't just bad management. I used to work for a company who supplied software to the NHS and unfortunately, it is seen as a cash cow. We need to improve the bidding process for all suppliers. We know the fix, we need to pay more in via tax but this is unpalatble and a vote loser. National institutions and utilities need to bi partisan, you can fix things in a 5 or 10 term. Everyone here is invested in compounds that if they get to market will probably cost £1000s per treatment cycle. 1 illness in your lifetime will cost more than most are paying over there lifetime.