Member Info for potnak

It's 16 weeks plus the other tasks to collect the data, analysis, review and writ up. There are no short cuts. John Reader was pretty clear on this in the IM Q&A. I guess there could be a scenario where data is shared before publication but why would we do that. If the board have gone to the trouble to raise and dilute the shareholders. Why limit themselves to one pharma. If the data is good. Publish it so all pharma can review. I'm wit FTC here. I think Q3 25 for the publication of data, possibly Q425 before anything tangible happens. 1 year. If it is a licence. Phase 2 will start in 2026. Cash from upfront (or 737) should allow small 1b or 2a trial for 1802. However, IMO the only logical reason for us doing the tox study is to show a reduced risk ready for a buyout.

16 weeks plus admin, data analysis and report writing. JR said 6 months, sometimes longer. The slide appeared to show Q125 so assuming they start early Q1. We're looking at Q325. I don't believe those timescales would change for the better, where ever they did them. I still find the tox study a weird pivot. The only scenario where it woukd make sense is if there were offers on the table but nowhere near high enough. So the board walked away to to prove the risk is low and therefore value at this point is higher.

I'm not sure the released of the data and peer reviews will move the dial much. Not unless some high profile media outlets report the reviews. So IMO. 737 news is the next trigger for price movement.

I didn't think your posts were negative, Matt. The company has just done a heavily discounted raise. This always tempers the market. The only time it didn't was the HNWI subscriptions and they were done at a low discount or even premium to the SP. The raise offer price nearly always pulls the sp down to thest price, if not lower. I must one of the the few people here who can't call themselves an investor in sar. I have never taken part in a raise. Not even the wrap. I'm with Halifax and the wrap wasn't available to Halifax customers. In most clother raises. I just waited until the SP fell to the raise price, sometimes lower. I'm actually supprised it's held at 24p. It isn't negative to think this way. The Edison report didn't give any indication that we will get anything tangible before 737 news lands and even that isn't nailed on good news. So I can see why those waiting to buy will wait for some sort of signal before they do.

SOG you know why the extended tox study can result in a failure.

Long-term studies can reveal side effects that weren't apparent in shorter-term studies.

The drug might show unexpected toxicity to specific organs or systems over an extended period. We already know first gen TYK2 have this problem.

If a pharma really has requested this, then they want Sareum to carry that risk. Some deals are done at pre clinical, some are done at phase 1, some big ones too.

Doing the extended tox study before the drug has even been anywhere near psoriasis patients is unusual and there is a risk that it could go wrong. If there wasn't, we wouldnt have been steered to do it.

Why does it add value? It adds value because some risk is taken off the table.

MHRA is old news but yes I do still believe someone fudged up. CRO, trial design, whatever. It cost us time and the RF debacle. Puma and Co, played to the fears and profited from it but the share price plummeted because our board in their wisdom (more like desperation) decided to do a deal where the backer could not lose. Riverfort could keep selling and we'd just handover more shares at a discount until the debt was paid. Again old news.

Now we wait. We don't really know how long we wait because, true to form, they haven't been clear with start dates. All we know, from JR, is 6 months, sometimes longer. It would be nice to know when the anticipated start date is.

All I want is for the board to do what they say they are going to do. The strategy has been woeful for the last 5 years.

Not sure how I can keep away when you keep calling me back. Tell you what, I'll see you next week.

The board painted me as someone else. I suspect, I will be here long after those with really large holdings.

Hi Bobbler, I admit I'm kerping my powder dry and will buy more in to low 20's. But, and this is the truth. I would rather the sp go up. We are where we are because of finscisl circumstance and the boards historic decisions. No conspiracy, no PH trying to drive it lower for their mates. This one always makes me laugh. When are these mates going to buy in? Theyve been at it for years with no buying yet.

I believe, if tox study is good, we are heading for a mid term term valuation of around 800 million. Loosely made up of 27% of an 800 million valuation for 737 and 250 million for each tyk2. There could be a lower offers if taking all together.

However and I disagree with SOG here. If tox study throws up something that is a deal breaker. The compound

may not be finished but, essentially we would need to go back and tweak which would mean years of pre clinical and trials again. IMO, we get a few pence in a fire sale. The interested phama wouldnt ask sareum to carry the risk in proving if it was a certainty.

A nice ballance of risk/reward. All guesswork because we are in the dark. Intentionally, I believe.

Ha ha, one. I'm not insecure in the slightest. I'm a classic introvert, probably on the spectrum somewhere but not enough to get diagnosed. I sometimes don't have a filter for just nodding my head. Have floated through the last 55 years with no major setbacks if health problems. I'm fit, hopefully healthy. I've no desire to be anything else. Ive no desire to be rich and would rather give away my wealth to other whether that is cash or my time. I believe everyone should have a fair crack at life. I'm also nothing the like persona I have on here. I'm filling the slot that has been painted for me because I believe someone should.

Because keeps mentioning me! Usually In a derogatory way. "Potnak could do better, that saying something" (sic). As if the level of intelligence somehow means some posts are more valid than others. You might not see it but others here do. When you start to call the other side names, or stupid, you've lost the argument.

Ah, the old backhanded insults again. Trying to assert intellect. Noboday cares, SOG. A few people keep using my story of me being thrown out of meetings. I mean, it's true but in most cases. They eventually ended up where I said they would. I dont work within service management anymore but the way SM work is very much like the situation we have here. When you have a P1 incident the SM team will report the keys facts to the stakeholders (shareholders). They dont, however report the sometimes insurmountable odds for resolution to the stakeholder. They give positive updates, saying things like "on track" or pointing out the level of expertise working on the incident. They give a time for the next update but not say what will be in the next update. They know it's reputational damage type stuff so are they are ususly scrambling around for anything whilst ignoring the glaringly obvious, if, unpalatable, resolution.

Maybe it is my 20 years being spent in SM that allows me to spot BS when I see it. I've been forced to lie to customers knowing that there is a resolution but it means admiting a failing or mismanagement.

The best post for weeks was the one from Basil, yesterday. We are past, Science and platitudes. It's time to show us some business progress and maybe be honest with the shareholders. Would it really hurt that much to give us an anticipated start and end date for the tox studies?

Yes, and I apologise to SOG for that.

You don't have to use the word could or might. I'm saying, I do. We have the same opinions but I get attacked because I point out that it could all go the other way too. Seems some here don't want to hear that or stupidly think that any who does point out the negatives must have an agenda.

I don't attack SOG, either. It is those that blindly follow him. It the same posters that hung on every word that WIP posted here. SOG is a comfort blanket to quite a few here. I make up mind with the RNS's and even that has taken a hit lately.

Ah, so same as Enki and I. Interesting. Makes me wonder why you would to like or enjoy trying to discredit those that have similar opinions? The only difference is the word 'will'. I would use 'possibly' or colloquially 'might'. As others here would put it, nothing is certain. They never say what that actually means though. Doing the tox study first means a binary outcome. It means success or failure and if the study didn't go the way the board hope it will. It's the end of sareum as we know it. All my stocks, not just SAR have been bought and sold based on the risk of failure. If acknowledging that makes me two faced, so be it. I've been in a bio stock that got that got a "did not meet primary endpoint" RNS. It was sh*t. 95% of value gone in an instant. I'd rather not go through that again so I will continue to question the boards decisions and voice my opinions on here.

Hmm, so same as me then? Price prediction in run up to news?

Meg, what a melt. This isn't a competition although the sycophancy surrounding your god makes it seem that way. I've nothing against SOG but I'm sure he gets a nice warm feeling from those that want see him humiliate others with his superior intellect. It's laughable that you think anyone cares. It's childish and the reason this board has gone from one of the better boards on LSE to being just the same as everything else. Us and them. No one is getting any value by coming here. Just reinforced views they already have.

SOG, I'm saying no one here questions what you write. Just like they never questioned WIP, Thoth and loads of others over the years. They just nod along with you.

You state Puma, he might have had an agenda but he was spot on with the predictions. You guys fought it all the way to 10p the the penny dropped that it was company that caused the drop, not Puma.

PC asked what I thought about your posts being removed. How can I care about something I didn't see on here or Advfn? I have no opinion and no desire to go and find out either. Im not ignorant of the science but admit I don't understand it. There are very few here who do but in fairness, I don't know how to drill for oil, mine for gold or what levels of spodumene yield high amounts of lithium. All industries where I have seen good gains. I would never be arrogant enough to post that I do know. I invest and trade on what the RNS's state. Sareum's record on delivering what they said they would in an official RNS has been woeful for the last 3 years, possibly more.

I only commented yesterday because the conversation was around the 'devious' Mm's driving the price down. They can only do that because there is yet another change in strategy that mean more waiting, contrary to what the board officially told us as recent as March this year. Hopefully we'll get an Edison report with clearer timescales. If no deal comes before, then Jan 25 will be the first nervous wait for news, then it will be late spring/summer 25 for tox study data.

I've nothing against you SOG but maybe someone else can answer the list of questions you ask of me.

Every post is valid. I don't have anyone on my block list. I don't even visit Advfn so not even sure what the beef I'd. Also never saw the deleted posts so I'm about as uninterested as anyone could be. Off now. Will be back when I have another opinion.

Aber, the progress diagram was intentionally vague. It didn't even state the study start, Q1 was just 1801 drug product or something like that. Q2 is the first time the tox study is mentioned and again, no actual detail if that is results or an update. We can only guess as to the reason why. Not sure why we can't be told the start and anticipated end though. We know it's likely to be a six month process, JR went out of his way to stress this point. If the start is Q1, then I guess the study will take a few weeks to design and setup and by then it'll be nearly Christmas so no point in starting until new year. It's all guess work.

Not sulking. Haven't said anything negative either. I believe the company could be worth at least £800 million in the next couple of years. More if we can keep hold of it. HBD talked of low key bullying the other day but there is a small group of posters here who are cult like in their support of SAR. They never question those they agree with though. I've the sane behaviour on VAL, PYC, HEMO and multiple other AIM companies that have yet to deliver. I will fully admit that I have no idea if what SOG types is true or not but you all nod along with him but then question those that have been correct on multiple occasions. I have got to the point where I couldn't care less. I'm not picking on sog BTW, before anyone accuses me of having his posts removed. He is just one of those who posts lots.

Like I said. I will keep my powder dry in until the low 20's. If I'm wrong, I win anyway.