Member Info for potnak

I am waiting for 20 - 22p before I buy more. And yes, I will exit at some point. The silly thing here is I will probably be holding long after other LTHs here as I believe we can see £5 or more. This is why I've stopped posting this last week. I seem to get questioned on my strategy but others dont. I know what I believe will happen here in the next 12 months and until just one of the experts here are correct, just once, I will go with what I believe.

I disagree, The dumb money isn't as dumb as it used to be. Lots of influencers out there pushing trading strategies. Essentially, the old ways of doing things. Add to winning positions, set stop losses to catch the losers. The best way to avoid AIM losses is to hold for the shortest amount of time possible. Yes, you might miss the chance of really big gains but you will be protected from what fundamentally what companies float on AIM for. To raise cash via dillutative funding. The game is the same, the players have changed. I will hold my SAR shares until I see an exit but I would never buy and hold AIM stock ever again.

It's just market mechanics, Nav. A baseline of 20 to 22p has been drawn. There will be lots of traders out there looking to buy in at that range. Couple that with some clear ish timescales where tangible news might land and the fact that SAR nearly always fail to meet self imposed timelines and you will get cautious trading. Either something gives or the MM's will take the SP down. Kept out of the conversation here for the last week. I do find it amusing that for all the positivity around the Final results statement giving some clear timescales that some LTH are still worried about the intra day prices. We should get some tangible news in Jan 25. Not sure the release of data thus year will do much unless publicly endorsed by the industry and sector media outlets.

Yes, I thought that the 'institution' could be private equity with an interest of purchasing more. No TR1 though so all investors must be under 3%. If this was the case, they could stay below the 3% until time to show their hand. On SP's decision tree, going over 3% might be the point where a new ceo is appointed.

Yep, Hopkirk. There is no need to go through the studies if licensing. The licensee, takes the risk and only pays the big bucks if and when successful. I now think buyout is the preferred option, plan A. Plan B would be to raise and do P2 themselves.

SOG, you are answering questions, I didn't ask. I'm litterally not interested in the science at this stage. Manipulation is used here as though it is something sinister, it isn't. Market Maker's, make the market and use various tactics to do so. Without them, there would be no movement at all. When you accept this. The ups and downs mean nothing. The diagrams appeared to show 737 news and the Tox study starting in 2025. John R stressed that the tox study, including analysis and writing reports would take 6 months, sometimes more. That's puts us into Q3. If an interested party has steered us down this route, would they not wait until the published data? If yes, then the company will need cash to see them through to a signed deal. IMO, unless we get cash from 737, the company will err on the side of caution and either save costs via shares in lieu of salary, the warrants and or a raise. Otherwise a low ball offer might be the only option. I think the board have just gone through this very scenario. Next time, they will be ready for it. I hope.

I'm pretty happy with my holding and I'm happy with the timelines but not kidding myself that a deal will be done before the published data. So a year it is. The sp can stay at 24p until the deal for all I care.

Hi warthog. I really want to believe him this time but I can't remember one commitment from Parker that actually came to fruition so my strategy is to take everything with a pinch of salt and just go on the RNS'd information.

Morning celtic. Just going on what the board tell us. Cash for one year. If we get to next spring without a cash injection or deal. They will need to raise again so the pot isn't empty when negotiating terms. Again, this is standard stuff and has happened loads of times here.

"The Directors consider that the cash held at the year-end, together with that received after the year end and projected to be received, will be sufficient for the Group to meet its forecast expenditure for at least one year from the date of signing the financial statements. If there is a shortfall the Directors will implement cost savings to ensure that the cash resources last for this period of time."

It isn't.

If a sizable order is placed, buy or sell. In an illiquid market, the MM's have to get creative to fill that order. It's how the market works, especially on AIM where there can be long periods of inactivity. No one ever complains when the Mm's manipulate the SP up. This is just normal AIM activity.

Take the emotion out of the stock and you can see what's happening and try to see sell points (or buy) to reduce risk.

The second half of the presentation was a good insight into what might happen in the next year. And if a deal doesn't come before then, it will be a year and maybe a scramble for some cash if 737 doesn't bring something in.

All good for now, I can do another year, if needed.

Updates on 1802, yes but what more can it be? I'll take anything that moves the dial but I don't think we'll see much this year.

Aber, FTC. The start of the study isn't clear but John stressed a minimum of 6 months, sometimes longer before publication. If the tox study starts in Jan 25, then we are looking at Q3 2025 before we see publication of results. This is what I thought anyway so I'm on with that. They pinned 737 news into 2025 too. So I guess all that time will be used and we might even get an RNS on the anniversary of the RNS this year. "Hopefully positive" in Stephen Terms. For the rest of this year, the full data publication might move the dial a bit if they shout about it. Other than that, we'll be in hibernation mode. For what it's worth, I don't think the discussions so far have been for licencing, IMO. They are for buying but the term sheet wasn't favourable, again to paraphrase SP. Cash will be a worry going into Q3 next year and RNS does state the cutting costs options again. I would be surprised if we see. Shares in lieu of salary reductions in spring next year. Possibly once all the legwork has been done on the tox study.

OK not sure we will see 2 billion now. Personally, I think it will no longer be in our hands by then. Maybe 1 billion though. Id rather the sp goes up but I think we'll see 20p in the next couple of weeks. That's great, a good buying opportunity. What's not to like. Again, doing the tox before efficacy brings the end game nearer, good or bad. So the type of buyer will change. No more trading, its buy and hold and accept the risk of failure or wait it out and accept the risk of missing out.

Gauteng, exactly. Not sure why some here think I'm negative on the potential. I think we will all make money here. I also think there is a bumpy ride to get there. Doing a tox study before efficacy is unusual and is a binary outcome. It brings the end game nearer. It may stop new investors going all in. So, again in my opinion. Unless we get something tangible comes along. We will hover around these prices until nearing the end of tox studies. I'm fine with that BTW.

I will, Bailiff. Hopefully some of my submitted questions will be answered too. Can I remind you of your comment about doing your own research at a later date?

That's great, Gauteng. I'm pleased you are confident. You won't mind opposing views then. IMO, without a trigger the SP will drift down until a news event. Why?, because it always does.

Didn't watch, celtic. Was in the pub. Sounds OK as as others have said, a requirement of P2 partner. Will watch the recording. Any timescales given? When does the study start, timescales for data readout? Judging by the comments here, there will still be a drift downward until 737 news is anticipated.

I'm sure Billy will make at least a couple of million profit. Within the next 18 months. Good luck to him and all others who hold here. I like Billy's posts. He says he's going to buy and then buys. No ramping, no pretending. He is playing the game perfectly.

Yes, celtic. The HNWI might have had a private call, where they spoke direct to someone from the board but won't have been given anything that isn't in the public domain. Question for you though. Do you think the HNWI were told about the extended tox studies and given some sort of indication they would be successful?

The SP will drop to last placing price of 22p, maybe even 20p before this goes up again. Why do I think that. The company set the baseline and the millions of new 20p shares are sticky for now. 737 news could drop but we now wait for the data from new tox study. I honestly think next summer is a good shout.

Anyway. I'm on holiday and going out for a late breakfast. Have fun on the IM call.

If the board have given the HNWI anything other that what is already in the public domain. Then it is insider trading. Billy, who put 6 figures in has already stated he does not know any more than we do. Do you not recall a HNWI or two buying in at 5p then watching a consolation and a massive loss on value. Do you think they were told something that we were not? Some here have watched 7 figure profits disappear, they didn't know anything, they were just hoping the rises would hold.

Bailif, institutions might fall under different rules where data can be shared, I don't know, but an NDA will certainly be in place. So I guess we will never know.

Gauteng. What makes you think the HNWI know anymore than we do? If they did, that would be insider trading. It would be blatant too. The 27% discount is why they bought, hoping for a lift, just like we are. As it stands, it's likely we will all get to buy at 20p anyway. Good news is SAR have cash to deliver this latest piece if the puzzle.