Member Info for potnak

depends what you mean by rich. If they make money, so do I. If I felt that way, I'd sell my shares. Apart from a couple of false starts, the company has always been clear to shareholders. I think Aber and Cerus what they read on here and what they want to happen with what the company clearly tells us is happening.

Personally, IMO, I don't think we a ready for a full buyout yet. We need to get TYK2 into clinics so we can start rattling some cages. I think if we get a deal for TYK2 it will be a low upfront with backend high milestones. I've always thought 2020 will be our cash out.

Having said that, I can see where all the speculation is coming from. Something is brewing so the acronym wtfdik comes to mind. Maybe 2018 is our year??

So yes, that's me sat firmly on the fence.

Yes, agreed. I think stoneys 1 billion figure is at the high end of any potential buyout. Today, with what we currently know. I'd say

minimum - £70 mill for CHK1 (crystalized milestones)
SKIL - I've no idea but the patent alone must be worth £100 million
TYK - £200 mil x 2
Aurora - ???

Would I consider £300 mil? of course but i'd definitely vote for £500 million. That figure goes up the further down the road we get. We know that and so do any potential buyers. We also know the risk of failure ramps up with each stage. yes, i'd like the chance to be rich but i'd rather definitely be wealthy.

The fact is that Novartis thinks that 2.1 billion is a good price to pay to get their hands on one drug.

Not related but proof that big pharma will throw cash at small bios to get their hands on a potential blockbusters. https://endpts.com/from-zero-to-hero-endocytes-little-deal-a-year-ago-spurred-a-comeback-capped-by-2-1b-novartis-buyout/

From another LTH. Here's hoping you won't become a long-term holder DG1. It's a funny old share SAR. I've very rarely been in the red here but twice I have cashed in on spikes. The market does like to see us around the 0.7 to 0.8 range though.

Utar - I've stopped pointing out that this won't do a PYC. Let them think it will and take advantage of any unsustainable spikes.

Never have I been in more agreement with Utar! Monday we were worth 1.5 billion, today Parker is lazy and living it up on our money. We'll get news, when there is news.

I completely disagree. SAR have built a company that potentially could be worth hundreds of millions and they've have done that with approx £12 million of PI money. A CHK1 milestone or 2 will break even. The rest is Shareholder value. IMO we are not far off from break even.

Pointless thread, it's not going to happen anyway. I'm a bit concerned that everyone is getting ahead of themsrlves again. Yes, there is potential but we are not going go from a company worth 20 milllion to one that's worth a billion overnight. I'd be over the moon with 5p right now. I'd probably derisk a bit too. If the market thought that 33p was a possibility, we'd be much higher than we are right now, trust me.

A more likely scenario would be CHK1 being sold on separately. I don't buy this buyout theory anyway. Not yet, not for another year IMO.

That's kind of my point and the great dillema of buying shares on AIM. We just don't know. If we could predict what will happen, we'd all be rich. Companies float on AIM to raise money, so IMO, that fact always has to be on your radar.

To be fair Aber. I believe there is huge potential here but I'm not sure I'd buy more until the threat of a placing has passed. You'd get a lot more for your money if the sp was 0.6p. Short of a milestone payment, I don't know how the company can convince buyers to start buying.

The 0p risk is unlikely IMO. there would have to be a catastrophic sequence of events for that to happen. I'm not saying today's SP is the bottom but give or take 20% and were not far off. The risk will come when CHK1 nears the end of P2. I'm hoping we are long gone by then.

Yes, most of the deals mentioned are backend loaded with big milestones though. We have the potential to get the same but we'd have to wait 5 years minimum. Preclinical, I think Stoney40 valuation of £1.6 billion is about right for everything but so many things would need to fall into place for that to happen and I'm not sure Parker could pull that kind of deal off but that is the potential. So, again, what are our compounds worth unproven in the clinic? I don't know but it's definitely multiples of today's SP, could even be 10 or 20 x today's SP.

Keiny - I won't speak for Thoth but my take is that's the valuation if, IF, TYK2 gets to market. I'd loosely agree with him but we're talking 5 - 7 years before we see divis. I've always said, I don't think we'll get that far. We'll be taken out before then. So the question is, how much is big pharma prepared to pay for a potential 20 billion a year sales? 1 billion? On a 20/1 shot?

The one, if you had to, you would punch?

Or, the issue has been sorted and we are in the final stages of licence deal negotiations. It would make sense of the recent confidence seem to have found. I'm still expecting a raise but in second place it's a deal to licence out Aurora or TYK2 cancer.

I'm still expecting a raise but I have yo admit. The positive language SAR are using recently seems to suggest otherwise. I don't think we'll have long to wait before we know either way.. Possibly even th8s week.

Just thinking our hands are a bit tied and we aren't in a good position to negotiate. Low up front could be 10 mil or more. Add that to a CHK1 milestone and we'd be good until the end of a P1 on TYK2. I know people want to cash out here but I don't believe we are there yet, at least at the levels we all want.