Member Info for potnak

Aye a 68% premuim on an 8 billion dollar deal though. I'd take a similar amount in cash terms.

I'm not sure anything has changed in regards to timescales but if all goes well with our TYK2 development, IMO, we can expect the same sort of interest in a few years.

Utar - it's massively relevant to SAR. We have an early stage, an untested compound for sale. BMS have just done a massive deal to take over Celgene and one of the big targets of that deal, enough to mention in the news release, was a TYK2 compound. We have one of them and Tim Mitchell thinks ours is better and we need the BMS TYK2 to progress nicely. If theirs is tolerated well, there is a good chance ours will be too. We've still got to wait and we have to fund the development of TYK2 somehow but we got a glimpse at the future last week and IMO it is bright.

Pp obviously bought on the spike yesterday and wants out. That's how most LTH become LTH.

Jeez. stop saying NDA! ha ha. I had to sign an NDA when I worked with NHS data, I had to sign an NDA when I was on a due diligence team for a big contract bid. It just means the people sat around the table can't say why they were sat around the table. An NDA doesn't make it a closed market. I'm sure there will be an NDA in place for the CHK1 deal. Might not be for anything price sensitive but it will be there between Sierra and SRI and that's probably why we don't know when the milestones are due.

ColdFish - I've said before and I'd be happy to take 5p if that's all we were going to get but I personally don't want an early deal if it means not getting the full value. I fully appreciate some shareholders may need the money but I worked hard to de-risk myself here so I'm in now a position where I'm not as exposed as I once was. I can afford to wait for the best deal.

The NDA thing is just a red herring. The "Early interest in Aurora" line will be subject to an NDA. Any early negotiations, data swapping or due diligence will be subject to an NDA. I will confidently say SAR will be adhering to an NDA of some sort. Tim could have only answered that question one way.

You can play down yesterday's news as a flash in the pan but it's not every day that a 75 billion dollar deal specifically mentions in the news release a compound, that we also have for sale, And to top it all. Early data suggests ours is more selective. We might be in for a long wait and see our shares diluted more but TYK2 could easily surpass the fabled 28p.

I think we've under an NDA for a long time. Any negotiations will be subject to Non-Disclosure. I wouldn't read that much into Tims comment. My take on it is. We've had offers on the table for TYK2 for a while, but they are nowhere near what the shareholders would see as value. We haven't got a strong hand yet. We have the IP but no patent yet. We don't have the funds and the market doesn't see the value either. Neither do the institutions. All this weakens our hand. The AGM statement was Tim and the Company giving us the worst case scenario. Setting the expectation for us shareholders that we could be in for a long wait. This will show the interested pharma's that if we have to, we will go it alone but the buy-in price goes up with every step we make. The news yesterday was massive in terms of TYK2. We have two compounds that in the next 5 - 7 years could be worth $15 billion. How much would you pay now for that kind of bet? That's the big question because even 5% of that is massive and it could be x 2!

correction. I've got 2.5 million shares. not a lot compared with some here but enough to make my pension pot look very healthy if all goes well.

To be honest, who cares if it falls back. I've got two million shares in a company that has two TYK2 compounds up for licence\sale. Another massive company believes their TYK2 compound could be worth $15 billion in a couple of years. I'll wait it out.

Nope Aber, you aren't overthinking this. Today's BMS\Celgene news validates my point yesterday. We need good news from the checkpoint\TYK2\Aurora compounds to add value to our less advanced work. Tim has always said that SAR aim to be best in class not first. If BMS thinks their new TYK2 portfolio could be worth $15 billion over the next few years then a best in class albeit less advanced TYK2 could be £100s of millions to get it off the market early. Interesting times. ha ha

Celgene bought out. Its specifically mentions their TYK2 as a potential blockbuster for Bristol. https://endpts.com/bristol-myers-inks-a-74b-deal-to-buy-out-celgene-expects-15b-a-year-from-late-stage-pipeline/

I'm not pessimistic Utar. I think sometimes this board see other drugs failing as an opportunity for SAR. I don't, I see another pharma dismayed at spunking another few hundred, sometimes much more down the draim. Once bitten, twice shy and all that. I honestly believe, if we saw a compoud make it big, others pharmas would want to be in on the act. I'd love 28p but I'd gladly take 5p if that's all what was on offer. I agree with you about some others on the board though.

There has been a few big checkpoint failures recently. Some successes too but this is the reason I don't think we'll get a mega bucks deal before we've got some concrete evidence/data. The bio world has changed a lot in the last few years and IMO, every big failure makes it less likely we will get an early big deal. CHK1 has to potential to put SAR on the map and on the shopping list of every big pharma. 2019 hinges on Sierra's progress.

Hey Jimmy, you sound like AIMs most flamboyant investor. You didn't make your fortune on 88e did you? You sound familiar.

The only entry price worth worrying about is your own.

Don't feed the trolls.

Wow, what an upbeat positive board! Can I remind everyone that nothing has changed since the summer? So what happened to all the imminent deals\takeover talk? I'm disappointed with some of the cheerleaders in changing their outlook from imminent to 5 years. On what grounds? I don't necessarily disagree with them but some of the stick they gave Honda and Utar seem a little harsh now.

My take on this week and the AGM statement is:
The NED's are not a long-term solution. they will come into play next year.
The AGM answer about milestones was rehearsed and deliberately vague. (you can't get much more price sensitive than this)
TYK2 still needs work. IMO - it isn't ready for investment yet. However, if CHK1 takes off, TYK2 will become hot. Good data from teh CHK1 P1, possibly by next summer will see the SP rise and if a milestone is reached we could be 3 times what we are today. Then hopefully TYK2 will get it's time in the spotlight.

IMO 2019 will see us start to build. 2020 will give the nervous and shrewd investors a chance to take profit.

Personally, I wouldn't wait another 6 years. If we are still in this position this time next year, I'll be looking for my exit. There are plenty of other rainbows to chase.

My advice is to log off the board, enjoy the holidays and come back in spring next year.

Firstly,. 3 to 5p would be a good outcome for a company worth less than 20 million. 10p would be immense! 28p is dreaming. It could happen though because it has happened elsewhere. Personally, I still think CHK1 is going to be worth 200 million to us in a few years. We've just got to wait for it.

Only one who thinks this mornings AGM statement was forward thinking and positive? As I see it, They are setting the company up as a vehicle to move fund to the shareholders. What was in Thoths post for it to be deemed against posting rules? I'm intrigued.

That's a nice detailed statement to go with the AGM today. Definitely leaning towards a going concern with divis rather than a takeover target though.