Short Term Pain, Long Term Gain.... Maybe1 Jun 2024 12:58
Personally, I think this stock could come good long term if the right deals ultimately get struck however that will take significantly more time, not to mention there is a massive lag between a secured win and payments actually hitting the business. That is clear as day from the H1 results report.
I also find it both shocking and concerning how much business they have lost, revenue in H1 as I have previously posted was less than my local sandwich bar, how any business can tank from doing close to £6m of revenue to next to FA is a concern whilst still burning eye watering amounts of cash each month is beyond me, although I don’t doubt measures are in play to try and turn things around.
However, Short term I can see the SP tanking significantly especially when the raise gets sorted, and it will do, because they did not hit the required revenues they forecast. I think they have done well to put out spin, to sex up interest and pump the SP from .5 back to .8 but talk is cheap and it doesn’t pay the bills, that's the reality.
They are less than 4 weeks now from the Year end and from a cash runway perspective must be running on fumes so the raise imo is bolted on and my call is .4 or .5 on a good day. We will know soon enough.
Will one more raise be enough? Hopefully, if they can secure it and they gone on and shore up the business wins after but, as I say, the top line order potential value doesn't convert quickly to bottom line cash in the business, it would not surprise me if the income for H2 proves to be as dire as H1 due to the delays, so I think it essential that next raise is the last one with a clear route to the break even delivered.
People will only buy into Jam tomorrow for so long, they are great at the talking the talk, they now need to walk the walk...
I'm 50/50 on this one, short term SP is going south IMO especially after the placing dilution, longer term could be interesting if they start to deliver.
Good luck