Member Info for Porky9

I amazed there are any buys at a premium to .20 I find it odd that some have topped up in full knowledge that 1.4bn of shares at .20 are about to hit this that will need to churn for sure. Just shows you.

Still if bid can hold at .25 that’s a nice 25% profit to flip for those in the issue once it completes. Nice work if you can get it

Ohhh Fredd1boy... it’s Lottie..... let me show you how different your returns would look had you avoided this share that made you miserable......wooo woooo

1.4bn of new shares - wow that is a lot to churn going forward. Wow.

Just shows you i was expecting a .50 or at worst .40 TBH but .20 good grief.

Discount so high to the already lowest share price point ever, timing everything i guess

Shame wider existing holders had no chance to support

Options triggered in the event of a takeover - big issue with that for me is if they fail and take it private SH paying above .20 would get shafted.

Bottom line though is £2.83m before costs enough for this cash guzzler? Time will tell i guess.

I really hope you guys get a positive outcome here albeit the media reporting has been harsh and outlook to recovery looking grim. This is a great company make no mistake and a dam loss to the U.K. should it be broken up.

John Wood didn’t set out to fail, the market conditions to both issue equity and raise finance has been dam ugly and remain so. Russell Downs Meanwhile is effectively an asset stripper, more likely to put the group into administration and sell off the parts cheap. Hate to say that but highly likely.

Bloody ironic that the our new government are about to spunk 10bn on public sector pay rises that will deliver FA productive output above the status quo but cost us a load more in tax whilst won’t give a £200m loan guarantee which would have a) resolved the immediate financial situation at HARL and b) enabled a share issue to facilitate the growth plans and support major contracts.

Anyhow, nothing more to be said, if this goes into administration it will be a dark day for industry per sae

@Valju

Your post got my rec

I never expected the thread here to go all philosophical :)

12p gives an MCap at £60m EV plus the £6m cash at Bank

Its not unrealistic @Muminr, you will get the traders in and out along the way but either way, clearly plenty of scope from these levels to be visiting the 9-12p range, interesting seeing this one run.

Money doesn’t buy happiness. Hence, why you have some lottery winners that are very unhappy. Happiness is what personally brings you joy. I agree with Ice on that point.

Money does enable you however to make choices to increase your commercial worth, Buy that villa aboard you want, explore the world, experience things that you can’t do unless you have money. Make better choices for your family. Eat at some of the finest restaurants in the world, share a bottle of wine with a loved one at an overseas romantic destination etc, etc - all material but build experiences that bring joy imo. But it’s still a state of mind. Let’s face it you can go somewhere with a low expectation and end up having an amazing time yet go somewhere you expect to be great and it disappoints. State of mind.

I recall chatting with a senior lady who came to an event a while back. A loverly woman but In my perception, this lady had achieved next to zero in her life, a few part time jobs, zero contribution to any kind of success, breadline, skint on and living on basic pension. Certainly had never experienced some of the material things I had. However, she was absolutely full of it, so cheerful loving life. She told me, if she died tomorrow she would be totally satisfied and happy with her life, she had two children and five grand kids and one great grand child. She said when she was 16 she was asked what she wanted out of life and said two children, one of each. Well she had achieved that and more and could die very happy. I pondered on this and thought, interesting, despite all my own achievements i can’t say the same as I still strive for more.

Maybe this is why you have people at one end of the scale like Elon musk with billions and it’s still not enough, they quest for more as they are unfulfilled hence probably not as happy as the women above who had low expectations but exceeded them all.

Still another bag and some in this to go by the look of it short term then onto serious levels.

Just need the NICE news to drop due any moment to supply the NHS for the second boost, a US license deal to drop following the FCA clearance would also add to the SP value.

Wouldn’t be surprised if these bounce back to 6 to 7p or more very quickly. That’s what £30m MCap with £6m of it cash at bank.

Rampers and shortens out, high trading activity but NICE news I would say VERY imminent which is sure to boost the SP and facilitate large NHS contracts and associated license deals stateside following the FDA clearance.

More pointing to a bullish outcome than a Bear one imo

Have fun guys, don’t get nasty :)

But totally different businesses:-

PYC = Consultancy business that by now should have approached EVERY biotech to offer consultancy modelling services. High churn as a constant need to find new business to replace lost/ expired contracts. A client acquisition cost (CAC) so high that they have continued to lose money year on year since practically when they started. CASH at bank since last raise of £400k remains minimal.

GDR = Breakthrough Product, only one of its kind worldwide finally granted FDA for use in the USA markets and a likely NICE approval any time soon enabling it to directly supply NHS in the UK. Likely to get licensed deals for worldwide roll outs, North of £6m cash at bank to support ongoing operations.

So yes @Laura2022, similar revenue but that is all that's similar, two businesses are completely different. I notice you didn't pick DEST or one of the other small biotech's that recently got delisted due to lack of funds as a comparison with PYC?

Personally, i think the AIM market for Biotech's still fairly dire frankly and could get worse should CGT get hammered shortly but you have constantly ramped this one practically since the day they started trading. I have to admire you tenacity here.

@ 4p its a £20m market cap with £6m of CAB, fairly cheap.

Whilst i don't consider todays breaking news will convert quickly into orders stateside they are potentially filling a GAP in the market and i'm sure other US firms will want to License it. Makes total sense.

As such, its a total gamble as with many on AIM but they have sufficient cash runway for now and with the likely revenues from this i don't think a signifcantly higher value that where we are today is unreasonable. Once the NICE news update finally comes in i can see that also boosting the SP.

Lets see, but my view is that its a better punt at this level than some... Good luck to you

It is absolutely ridiculous that a business actively wants to delist from the junior market because they think they have a better chance of raising capital privately.

WTF is that all about, businesses have historically been busting a hump to jump through all the regulatory hoops to get listed on the AIM in the belief their shares will have greater liquidity and more opportunities to raise capital.

Just shows you what a mess this market is currently and if Labour whack CGT on profits from shares I can see investment in this market falling even further. Joke

@DH81

Well it’s worked before :)

But, I think more are catching on now, it’s been a traders stock for a while, punters buying at 2.5/ 2.6 to try and sell on a small uplift, mm’s playing a blinder maintaining a decent spread and with the clock ticking, it’s a big risk betting on a spike now when you are likely to get hit with further dilution from the placing at any moment.

Amazing no posts from Kevin, sorry I mean @PM2022 now on these boards, just shows you.

I’m impressed the SP opened higher on just £850k of actual invoiced and collected revenue for the year confirmed being materially down on the projections for the year, just shows you.

Be interesting to see what the placing can come in at.

Well if they hit capital gains tax shortly, frankly it will make investing sums in the AIM even less attractive than it already is. No doubt we will know in the next few weeks.

Physiomics (PYC) just raised £300k for working capital and had to give 50% discount to the SP to secure it and you think VAL are going to secure £2.5m working capital for a years running costs, not a chance.

Adrian needs to get cash burn back down to a more manageable level and still needs to sort the CEO role. I think todays move is so that the CSO role that Cathy had can now go to Suzy probably on the same salary and benefits package - watch this space.

@Sean

With respect I don’t doubt it’s an excellent lab with lots of equipment, I don’t doubt the high standard of work that both Cathy and Zai do, I have zero concerns in that area whatsoever hence I don’t need to visit the lab.

But this isn’t the concern is it. The concern is if this business model as it stands can be made financially viable or if it needs continual hand outs from SH to stay in business. SH did not come here to invest in a lab start up, they are now due to the direction of travel from the existing BOD

Amazed the SP pumped on this, probably why the spread is 15%.

Is this more FREE work they are doing to try and prove concept that SH are paying for or are AZN contributing anything to the cost of doing it?

@Sean

Yes, I don’t doubt the lab MIGHT be able to work quicker on evaluations than if they were outsourced to other labs, depends on the manpower available as it’s all labour intensive work. The issue is how you pay for it. If you can get the lab to pay for itself with commercial work and use the unused capacity left on own evaluations fine but that’s not what’s happening, they keep spend spend spending and the cash burn is worse than ever. I await any plan from Adrian to outline getting the lab to break even, let alone profitability.

Also, I thought Cathy was already on the board as CSO, hope this doesn’t mean they have done this to switch roles with Suzy on the same pay, so the status quo remains,

I watch and wait

As for clarification Jason:-

Something is only worth what someone will pay you. Ambrose is a start up, its a phoenix business out of a previous liquidation. Nothing wrong with that but it has limited funds hence why the original agreement was settled by a token number of shares, not cash. It needs to complete a raise to fund dev work, hopefully they can secure some but it wont be in a position to make meaningful payments to VAL, certainly not in the short term and certainly not before VAL is out of cash runway. I can't really be much clearer than that.

Appreciate though that you want to ramp the SP to try and get out on a spike. But you would be better off supporting Adrian's raise frankly. Nobody is going to want to buy at this price knowing a discounted placing is due are they.