Member Info for Porky9

These posts from@PM2022 are brilliant its like being at the comedy club, God loves a trier: -

201 – Its DEAD, in fact its more dead than the Norwegian blue parrot but lacking the beautiful plumage. It’s a 15-year-old peptide for crying out loud, out of patient, needs reformulation and I don’t believe there has been any work on it in the last three years. Its in a box on the shelf labelled “legacy item” no longer in service. Meanwhile, THX still don’t have a pot to pee in nor paid a bean in lab fees. DEAD

401- Ambrose is a phoenix start up, it needs cash for its own operations. IF it was able to license 401 there is zero chance of cash exchanging hands because put simply it doesn’t have any. So, if you are expecting cash from that anytime in the next few years dream on.

Stingray – Well even with a positive evolution outcome no guarantees on this that cash would exchange hands. As I understand it, Stingray Bio Limited at companies has something like £20k of capital reserves in its last filed accounts. Maybe it would raise funds that’s their business, but I genuinely don’t see them being able to chuck loads of cash at VAL. It’s needed for own operations IMO.

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/13065548/filing-history

So, in all where is cash going to come from… answers on a postcard.

Binary outcome now: either they get the discounted placing away or its administration. My call is Half a pence target by end of October or Administration and liquidators appointed.

“.......Should not invest, if they can’t stomach a five year outlook....”

LMOL you really are having a laugh arn’t You? Some have been here 15 years and counting and during that time watched a revolving door of directors all paid handsomely, whilst the best part of something like £35m of investors cash has been squandered, circa 15 odd raises and now trying for another due any moment if they can get it away, three 125:1 consolidation events and some have lost as much as 98% of their money.

Tell me exactly what has changed? Because pipeline needs rebuilding and as I said the other week, I genuinely don’t think they know what an invoice is? I believe the only revenue recorded was that £10k 3 month lab contract once and nothing since. But prove me wrong let’s see the H1 report outstanding.

No desire to sink VAL, would dearly like them to wake up and realise that investor interest is in bringing new drugs to market, not investing in labs with low margins but the damage is unfortunately already done. ME needs to materially reduce overheads back to sub £1.4m levels for sure.

As for “placing or no placing” it can ONLY be discounted placing if he can get it away as the alternative is administration, that’s the way it is, no sugar coating it.

You see you return with insults rather than actually tell us where the value is here that’s left? Kind of totally expected.

This is because the harsh reality is that unfortunately I am right. If still holding out for a result on 201 from THX is your reality then you are deluding yourself. It was IMO a totally naive business decision to do a deal with effectively a skint sharp suit from the US. You know they have strung the business along, timelines have come and gone BUT worse, had this been Directors own cash, IMO I do not believe for one moment the situation would have been allowed to continue as it has, at the very least a fee would have been paid for the lab services and to maintain that exclusivity so freely given.

The fact is, it was someone else’s cash being squandered here and well, put simply that cash was so easy come by, investor losses of no consequence to the BOD personally, they not only continued business as usual but even stuck two fingers up to investors and paid themselves nice bonuses out of placing monies at shareholders expense in the process.

Indeed we will see VERY shortly, my betting is that the cash position to end of last June, with generous pay offs could well be less then we think, they certainly won’t include settlements after June. R&D Tax credits won’t be so generous either this year because I know for a fact HMRC are tightening up on what qualifies, so where to from here? Publish the H1 report? Go on let’s see it.

The placing needs to happen for sure and quickly but even discounted to half a pence, I don’t see the compelling investment case to chuck yet more cash at this, it’s just chucking good money after bad IMO because frankly if they got the cash imo, it would likely be back to radio silence anyhow, continued contempt for investors and business as usual, perhaps even a nice bonus to reward the board for getting it over the line.

Maybe I’m wrong and someone will be daft enough to chuck money at placing number 15 or whatever it is now but investing conditions remain challenging, AIM is not a great place to invest at the moment and as I say I just don’t see the compelling investment case. That’s not MEs fault, it’s the legacy he has inherited - Prove me wrong.

Nothing left to actually invest in

Labs will require lots of cash and time to establish and the returns are small versus the capital outlay required.

Evaluations have been ignored due to Kevin and Suzy going all in on the labs and it’s like starting again. It would take lots of time and cash, probably two or three more raises to get the pipeline back to where it should be.

This is the legacy ME has before him. We don’t know yet the exact remaining cash position as the H1 results are delayed but imo they will be running on fumes now and a placing essential to survive but I still put it at 80/20 in relation to Administration/placing.

I can’t see anyone chucking more cash at placing 15 just to keep Directors in lifestyles for another 6-7 months before placing 16 - sorry

It needs a good pump to sell into for any chance to get the placing away.

@PM2022

Well had they invested during the last three years in adding new evaluations rather than playing build a lab, they would now have a strong pipeline in play. As it stands the entire pipeline now needs rebuilding from scratch and that is the legacy that Suzy and Kevin have left for ME.

I do agree with you that it would cost millions now to rebuild that pipeline, not to mention a few years time to do it - opportunity lost and a big capital outlay to get it back.

So it now come down to if you think chucking more cash at a lab start up is a good investment or not. I see no evidence that there is enough demand for a biobank frankly. I just don’t. Imogen couldn’t make it work so why should it be different for VAL?

FYI as a side, Natalie has a massive biobank over at Biograd in Liverpool from donated samples and they run that as a charity concern. It’s a great facility does a lot of scientific good but it makes FA money. I see VALs biobank as much the same, probably a half decent facility and they enjoy working on it but, it’s not one there is a big enough potential customer demand for, that’s the problem. No sales in three years other than a £10k 3 month project kind of illustrates the point don’t you think? Massively labour intensive work at low margins.

Probably could do with another fund raise top up, say another £350-£400k should help. We already know the full FY will likely come in at less than £650k of revenue, no idea losses guessing £400k be interesting to see what it comes in at. Good luck

Well the SP back to where it was pre the NICE award, FDA, commercial sales at the first NHS and now has cash at bank practical equal to it’s market cap. Just shows you markets remain brutal and I don’t see floods of cash coming into AIM anytime soon especially once the budget lands in October and they stiff us all for CGT tax increases. Marvellous.

Well at the pitching event he will need to demonstrate:

a) a massive reduction in the cost base ideally back to more manageable cash burn level of £1.4m a year (£350k per quarter) or less.

B) offload dead wood, needs to call time on Mark Trehrane the useless BDM that hasn’t brought a sale in 15 years, - I’m sure you would agree @PM2022 :) likewise the NEDs not adding value and others.unless he shows at least 1m of cost savings he is toast imo. Ditch anyone on payroll working from home not doing a full 35 hr week.

C) significantly improve fiscal control, probably time to ditch Gerry the FD as he has resided over two crashes and clearly no control to date until it’s too late.

D) more importantly a clear plan to break even NOT just to the next placing event on another 6-7 months time.

Personally, I think it’s too little now too late. I can’t see anyone mad enough to chuck yet more cash at this. They have had best part of £35m to date to make this business model work, 15 raises and 3 consolidation events. He has now inherited a position that is unworkable, Suzy and Kevin have left him with a bloody mess frankly. It’s like starting again and probably need two or three more raises from here, it’s uninvestable imo

The Tcro concept is busted having failed to secure any business, Imogen failed with its biobank after millions chucked at them so why they think they can make money from biobank services is beyond me. There is not enough demand for the cost and outlay required. Another £2m will just go on feeding lifestyles for another 7 months before they hold their hand out again for more.

I think he will have his work cut out at the pitching even to sell this and if he does pull it off, I just think it will be back to radio silence again, until the next raise.

The thing is markets have changed now, there are better investments. I put odds of Raise v Administration at 20/80 - he needs a miracle frankly.

Yeah right

Either they get the placing away at 75-80% discount to todays share price after the pitching event or it goes into administration.

They must be running on fumes now. IF they published the H1 results overdue we would know exactly what the cash at bank position is. My estimate is that to end of June it will be £700k to £750k and annual cash burn at £2.4m or £200k per month. Hence it doesn't take Einstein to work out that they wont meet end of October payroll. If they are lucky and get an R&D Tax credit maybe string a couple more weeks out of it but they will need you to dig deep again that's for sure.

Sorry but this looks like its being positioned to me for a raise for sure and whilst many here know i'm bearish, i cant see Sanderson backing this again i just cant not without a serious cash burn reduction and even then who is going to invest just to extend the cash runway and keep directors in salaries for another 6-7 months before yet another raise?

I am interested in earlier comments though from Jason on the other site - why he thinks ME would consider buying assets with Suzy out of a liquidation - that intrigues me, what brings him to that conclusion? But expect a flurry of more fluff news because to get a placing away a high volume of pre selling will be required and they need buyers for that.

I put chances of raise v administration at 20/80 based on where they are today. I don't blame ME for that, its the unfortunate position he has inherited frankly.

I know I’m 100% right when you revert to insults

The rude vulgar comments made by @Paternostpauper, @PM2022 and@Riddler AKA Laura2022 to try and ridicule / discredit me say it all. Really totally out of order to be honest. This board should be about this stock and nothing else.

So I remain completely convinced that either one of two things will happen here next imo either 1) he manages to get a discounted placing away before October is out at a 75-80% discount to today’s close or B) he lets it sink completely, it goes into admin and he and Suzy bid to pick up any assets worth having for a token value. If the accounts get published I can tell you exactly what that token value would be.

Watch this space. As for the insults, care not. it won’t change the inevitable outcome here, it’s already in play imo.

Half of good philosophy is good grammar.

Just for you @OB - Some Rex Harrison:-

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EAYUuspQ6BY

Take Care

Pork’s

Don't try and distract..

I and many other here will remember you the last TWO raises spouting the same BS that the cash runway was longer than it was and that NO raise was in play. You even argued with me on the point despite me proving the financial position from the previous accounts and reports issued. You attempted to discredit me then, even having my posts removed in order to hide the real position. You know what you are doing, you are busted - many here are also fully onto you. Like they have cash runway to mid next year, utter nonsense.

The placing is coming 100% for sure, ONLY providing they can get it away, if they can't its lights out and administration. IF they can it will be at a material discount. There is no alternative.

So you are trying to convince us that a) the H1 won’t show the losses and cash at bank estimate I calculated to 30th June of £2.4m loss and CAB of £700k to £750k and B) that there is no chance of a placing early October because they have enough cash runway to end of Q2 2025. This is what you are saying?

Because I really do not believe you think that for one moment. I believe you are here to pump the SP, exaggerate the position to sucker trade buys in to enable those behind the scenes to offload ahead of the proposed placing by selling into those buys.

It’s difficult to offload big amounts without crashing the SP with volumes this low and they will need for high volumes to be offloaded in view of the extent of dilution. IF and I believe a massive IF he can get yet another discounted raise away after the pitching event for working capital it can only be if a) they agree to a massive reduction in costs to a more manageable level ie sub £1.4m a year b) a clear business plan route to profitability NOT just to another raise in 6 or 7 moths and C) at least a 75% to 80% discount to the current SP.

If he gets a placing away at .4 or .5 it will be nothing short of a miracle imo.No doubt they will be trying for a penny raise but it would be utter madness to support that without a handle on costs.

Finally, if @PM2022 I’m so far out, let’s see the H1 report - why is it still not published?

Still going to tell us @PM2022 the cash runway will run into Q2 2025 are you?

Looks like conversations have started based on the trading activity. Perhaps they need to complete the placing before the H1 figures are released. Same old game.

They best hope they can vet any questions that might be asked to avoid embarrassment, otherwise someone might ask:-

Hi Mark, over the last 15 years the business has achieved next to zero revenue and had the best part of £35 million chucked at by private investors via about 15 raises and had 3 consolidation events, if Investors give you another 1.5m pounds for this next placing, what will be different? Will you be back again in another 6-7 months when that’s spent asking for a follow on raise?

Keep pumping @Riddler

Oh why are there sells, where are they coming from, who would sell stock at these low prices, why would they even do that, I'm just a girl called Laura.

Yeah right, pre selling doesn't go on either does it Riddler?

What annoys the hell out of me is that retail that don't understand the ways of the market get taken in by this. Needs stamping on frankly.

I still think the 24th is going to be a tough call for support - 50/50 if it can be done again IMO

Same Game, Same tactics some just not paying attention or blatantly in denial of the situation before them.

Again, deliberate ploy here to big up something to more than it is:-

Ambrose is a Phoenix business, it went into administration and then restarted up again as a new company. No issue with that, that’s the business commercial world we live in however, it still has to raise cash as a new company for its own purposes. That’s their business.

Meanwhile, the deal that Suzy did with this start up was to offer an option to license 401 in return for what later turned out to be £5 of shares at par value. 75k of shares of 11m in issue or less than 1%.

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/14409383/filing-history

Now we can’t know if they will license it or extend the option, likely license it imo on milestones why not but one thing is certain, there won’t be any cash on exchange, if there is it would be derisory because put simply Ambrose don’t have any. If they ultimately did raise funds to move 401 to trials which is a big ask in this market, they would need the cash for that, not to give to VAL.

So if you are expecting some short term big cash pay day from 401 to save the day you are seriously deluded it’s not going to happen.

Imo, the original concept of VAL was to take fledgling biotech from university’s to position them packaged and ready for big biotech to then advance them forward, in return for a decent upfront fee and milestone fees on success for that work. In reality especially in the case of 201 they have just given them to yet another start up that frankly has proven to do practically no more with the compound than VAL could probably do themselves.

It’s like they have got into bed with middlemen that are skint that want someone else to fund trials and cream a bit off for themselves in the process.

My view is not all deals are good deals; the dev work VAL does to try and position costs money hence, they should only work with partners that are in a financial position to pay actual cash upfront and advance these compounds, otherwise what’s the point.