Member Info for Porky9

it’s been through an extensive r&d early stage process having only recently secured nice recommendation, it’s fda breakthrough and moreover its first commercial order of this product for strokes.

end of october marks the end of a current nhs evaluation period, it was going to be 17/10 but moved by two weeks so we will hear more in that regard either way fairly soon.

imo the current revenues are not relevant it will either a) make impact on its own by securing sizeable nhs or worldwide orders to reach the target valuation b) partner/ agree license deal with a bigger established medical devices partner to make said impact c) end up being sold/ merged into bigger entity, likely stateside that would pick up the ip now it’s proven and run with it, ceo has extensive experience of this or d) the tech proves to be a bag of ****, nobody interested, they run out of cash and it goes into admin. take your pick.

with this specific penny share i’m in the bull camp, i rate it’s odds better than some but it’s not for widows or orphans

@Laura2022

Sure, it has two proven accredited products. It has £6m of working capital providing sufficient window to secure orders and its recent offering is one of a kind/ groundbreaking.

Also the ceo has extensive experience of building and exiting 250m+ value businesses and has the skills to do same with this one and has recently invested heavily his own cash at 3.1p and has confidence in the business.

To reach a £200m+ value we need revenues of £20m for a x10 revenue value. They could more than break that with one strong NHS roll out order or one decent stateside or partnership order.

It’s a high risk penny share sure, no guarantees and could go tits up like a lot of penny shares on AIM but I rate the chances as reasonable, it’s a very high risk reward ratio if they get it right - time will tell.

Saving the NHS £160m a year with nationwide roll out not to mention significantly improving patient lives, what is not to like.

And that is before we even consider the US and global markets.

This is a £250m company in the making, 50p SP Target.

@Uncanny

For all I know @Northern Hero could well be bang on with his analysis. My own OPINION differs slightly (Only my opinion so ignore):-

401: I actually think that Ambrose WILL continue with it However, I can’t see how they can afford to pay anything down and I’m not sure if they would be able to raise enough cash to fund trials BUT from a commercial perspective it is logical in my mind that they could offer a milestone led deal in exchange for a few more shares (no cash) continue to work on 401 and over the next couple of years try and find a partner to fund trials / license it on. In other words a slow burn but try and retain the asset for no upfront cash - Obviously I could be proved wrong but that feels realistic to me in this climate.

201: On this one I can’t for the life of me understand why a line in the sand hasn’t already been drawn. I can only assume ME doesn’t want to call time on THX for fear it could damage the placing and thinks it’s better to leave HOPE on the table than kill it off. There are two main issues from my own notes: a) it needs reformulating and new patents as far as I know and this means more work to get it into position to be licensed b) I can’t get away from the fact that even if EUDA wanted to back THX surely they would want to renegotiate terms with VAL as a new entity anyhow. Phase trials would require significant investment. Based on recent events my view remains that 201 via THX is absolutely DEAD as a result - Again happy to be proved wrong but based on their form to date this is my opinion. ME shoulda draw a line under it and decide if the work and investment to get it up to speed is worth it and try and find a new partner or if after 15years it isn’t just close it down.

We have to accept that not all projects would work out - this is why I have been an advocate for them spending cash taking on lots of evaluations NOT on building a biobank lab. Unfortunately, because pipeline was neglected ME has inherited this position hence why his position is now so difficult to recover from.

That’s how I see it, just my two penny's Worth but maybe I will be surprised. Anyhow, good luck guys, take care.

Pork’s

Interesting - buying into the close

At 4p it’s a £20m valuation, very interested to see what the position comes out with the FDA stateside. This tech over there would make significant impact - CEO might be better off taking GDR into a US listed entity on a share swop - maybe that’s the plan.

Next week could prove to be a decisive week for this stock

Profit is king indeed however, occasionally you can hit that multi bag which really is what aim is about, risk reward, nothing worse than taking 20% to miss on 500% - I tend to take the view if I double my money, sell half and then I’m in for free and I’ve had some amazing wins using that method to offset against some ugly losses.

It’s trying to sort the wheat from the chaff, with this penny share play it could go tits up and tank but then again if those stateside orders roll or the CEO gets an offer the returns would be substantial, on balance worth a punt, even at 4p it’s a 20m value - the ceo has completed deals in the 200m to 250m range so have the experience not to mention skin in the game at 3.1p so on balance odds look good to me but time will tell

Traders will always trade

If this rumour that it’s being lined up to be sold has any legs then probably makes sense to do it now before the likely increases labour are going to bring in relation to CGT in the budget end of this month. Especially as the CEO holds so much stock personally at 3.1p

Any truth in it we can expect an explosive week IMO - Interesting

Well that’s the gamble isn’t it

If they land contracts from the NHS tenders or stateside FDA awards this will absolutely fly from here, if they don’t it will be back down again.

They certainly have the tech to do it and experienced management team that know how to exit which is half the battle.

absolutely brilliant, this deserves a full fca audit, i would be careful what you wish for @riddler.

specifically the events surrounding jwallows posts here and the £60m on deposit talk should be looked into. a lot of people lost a lot of money over that whilst the stock was being sold into a placing that “wasn’t going to happen” yeah right.

but in any event, you can keep requesting removal of posts you don’t like that dare to question anything here but fact remains:

this is now a binary play: either me secures support for the discounted placing or he doesn’t. it’s that simple.

what i think, doesn’t count for ****, for what it’s worth i think the position me has inherited is god dam awful. the guy needs a miracle to turn this around from here but that’s between him and the brokers if they want to chuck more cash at it or not.

time will tell

sorry this message is after 5.00 so your post removal requests won’t get answered until tomorrow. do you think this board should just be a constant stream of your rampings - ridiculous. like i say, many are onto you anyhow.

@DarthInvestor - Is that because its a load of fanny? LMOL

@PM2022 - Keep telling yourself. I see no difference. Suzy was involved back then. They started in good faith post George and Satu by getting costs back under £1.4m a year, they did well to do that but unfortunately quickly reverted back to type. Spend Raise Spend Raise Consolidate cycles with costs back up closer to £2.4m again to where is was prior to bust.

201 won't result in any cash -you are totally deluded, not a hope in hells chance. And as for 401, well it could get licensed by Ambrose BUT there would be little or more likely ZERO cash on signing, it could only be a 100% milestone led deal as i see it and that's because Ambrose don't have the cash for anything else. IF they got their current raise away it would be enough to keep Ambrose going not enough to fund phase trials of 401 through to commerciality, that's years off.

So where is your cash going to come from @PM2022 - i will tell you: good old charitable shareholders again digging deep to fund raise 15 IF ME can get it away - i'm not convinced he can pull it off again. Serious risk of this going into Administration IMO - Will know soon enough.

I consider that there is nothing left here that can deliver a decent ROI because the pipeline has been neglected and will take years to rebuild and position again, not to mention several more placings to do it meanwhile, the labs business per sae, isn’t a sector exciting enough to give a higher risk AIM investor the sort of ROI they need to make putting their hard earned cash at risk. Sorry but it’s the position that ME has inherited

IF and it’s a massive IF they can secure support for the October placing at half a pence the days of invest for a quick flip and cash out are long gone on AIM, they will need to pre-sell a heck of a high volume of stock from here to make it happen and realistically, any investor going forward would just get hit with more dilution from yet more future raises.

I stand by 80/20 Administration/Placing, simply because I don’t see where the appetite would come from for raise 15, a decent ROI potential is not there, certainly not in the next three years anyhow it would just be more of the same

I would argue that there is next to nothing left here now of any value other than CLX. The labs are still loss making and it’s no good hiding the true costs by excluding the BOD costs it’s all part of it. Meanwhile 201 or 401 won’t result in any actual cash coming in what so ever: 201 because THX should have been cut years ago and IMO have lost all credibility and on 401 Ambrose are also skint members and even if they later raised cash to fund phase trials for testing, they would need that cash for dev work and their own boards payroll not give it to VAL. In this market a no cash up front and long term milestone deal is more appropriate for both peptides. They need a lot of cash to develop them.

Due to the pipeline being neglected it will takes years and lots of cash to rebuild and the margins that labs can make due to the high labour costs, this is a high touch business model we are talking about, are just not attractive from an investor ROI perspective - this is the key problem and what ME has inherited.

I don’t doubt for one moment that ME will be thinking he can try and get support at .9 or a penny raise but seriously the fully diluted mcap doesn’t justify even a half pence raise. I don’t see how an investor would make a return at half a pence with costs remaining so high and the prospect of a follow on raise 7-8 mths later looming.

I still put this at 80/20 Administration/Raise ratio - ME will have his work cut out for sure trying to get placing 15 away. Market conditions are harder than ever, where Will appetite for this investment come from? Far too many burnt over the years IMO

@Granger345

You do not not need to account for yourself or justify your own integrity on these chat boards. For what it’s worth IMO you post like a well reasoned decent individual making some quality thoughtful comments in contribution here. This forum being here to discuss the stock not to create a Ramping echo chamber. They only go on the personal attack and try and discredit posters as a way to distract when they can’t counter or make any logical reply to points raised.

Meanwhile, even the perma bulls left here can now see from last weeks pitching event and the financials put out that they are now running on fumes and the October placing practically bolted on. So the bigger question here is : Can they get placing 15 away and sucker more cash in to keep Directors in lifestyles or will investors say enough is enough and not chuck more good money after bad? We will know soon enough.

@Grainger

I would agree. many can’t comprehend John’s state of mind in taking such drastic action and what his family will have also gone through as a result, it’s deeply upsetting frankly, just awful, no words.

If this wasn’t an AIM play and was in the private sector there is no way in a million years it would get £35m chucked at it over 15 placings, delivered next to zero revenue in that time and be back again now for another couple of mil on top. You couldn’t make it up.

I tend to agree with on your FCA point, specifically the events around the JWallows postings and false posts about £60m being on deposit whilst the BOD were actively working to get an inflated priced placing away for the last placement whilst stock was being shorted and pre sold. SH took another smack then. Disgusting really.

It is what it is

CAB to end of June was £59k more than I estimated but of course Suzy pay off would have come post those accounts I believe.

No actual invoiced revenue again

Not sure why they are trawling for US business, millions of labs competing stateside but perhaps U.K./Europe market exhausted? That won’t be an easy market to crack.

October placing now essential as expected but can they find support for that, this is the million dollar question.

That will be interesting

I have them pencilled in as £2.4m loss for the year and CAB at end of June £750k - will be interesting to see how close/ far out my estimate is. Will be interested to see IF they did get any lab revenues in.

Nonsense, you post to try and pump the share price - that is your objective.

For ME to stand a chance of getting this placing away, even at half a pence, they need suckers to buy at this price to enable pre selling into any volume created. Its a set pattern we are already seeing in play hence, today you had some suckers this morning buying and just before close in came the sales on the back of them.

But this time with so many people burnt here the game is up IMO. As i say i put it at 80/20 Administration/placing, ME will have his work cut out for sure due to the legacy inherited.

Lets see how it unfolds.

These posts from@PM2022 are brilliant its like being at the comedy club, God loves a trier: -

201 – Its DEAD, in fact its more dead than the Norwegian blue parrot but lacking the beautiful plumage. It’s a 15-year-old peptide for crying out loud, out of patient, needs reformulation and I don’t believe there has been any work on it in the last three years. Its in a box on the shelf labelled “legacy item” no longer in service. Meanwhile, THX still don’t have a pot to pee in nor paid a bean in lab fees. DEAD

401- Ambrose is a phoenix start up, it needs cash for its own operations. IF it was able to license 401 there is zero chance of cash exchanging hands because put simply it doesn’t have any. So, if you are expecting cash from that anytime in the next few years dream on.

Stingray – Well even with a positive evolution outcome no guarantees on this that cash would exchange hands. As I understand it, Stingray Bio Limited at companies has something like £20k of capital reserves in its last filed accounts. Maybe it would raise funds that’s their business, but I genuinely don’t see them being able to chuck loads of cash at VAL. It’s needed for own operations IMO.

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/13065548/filing-history

So, in all where is cash going to come from… answers on a postcard.

Binary outcome now: either they get the discounted placing away or its administration. My call is Half a pence target by end of October or Administration and liquidators appointed.

“.......Should not invest, if they can’t stomach a five year outlook....”

LMOL you really are having a laugh arn’t You? Some have been here 15 years and counting and during that time watched a revolving door of directors all paid handsomely, whilst the best part of something like £35m of investors cash has been squandered, circa 15 odd raises and now trying for another due any moment if they can get it away, three 125:1 consolidation events and some have lost as much as 98% of their money.

Tell me exactly what has changed? Because pipeline needs rebuilding and as I said the other week, I genuinely don’t think they know what an invoice is? I believe the only revenue recorded was that £10k 3 month lab contract once and nothing since. But prove me wrong let’s see the H1 report outstanding.