True Enterprise Value (EV)9 May 2024 02:49
MCap was previously £2.25m in April 21 at the last restructure. Back then the business was far better positioned and had a more manageable cash burn < £1.5m p.a. They will soon be out of cash again and need your support. Mcap now is bloated at £ 4.2m but market conditions have changed materially in that time. The business now has more shares in issue, still never invoiced a thing in15 years and to put this into perspective even using the April 21 valuation that’s an SP of about 1.5p.
But no matter which way I cut this I can’t even get back to the previous valuation because put simply: where is the value here now?
1. 201 is going nowhere, neglected, and likely superseded, 15 years old and needs reformulating and new patents, the BODs managing of this asset has been a total disaster, still locked in with a worthless agreement with a stateside start up. Meanwhile, 301 off same tech is also doing zero. The new BOD need to come clean with investors, drop THX and put the work and investment in to try and reposition it and connect with a well funded biotech, either that or cut losses and close it down – Valuation Minimal.
2. 18mths ago they should have added more evaluations to ensure more pipeline coming through. By neglecting this area of this business in favour of the labs they now have next to nothing in progress. A total failure IMO and needs the pipeline rebuilding which will take time.
3. 401 was moved to another start up trying to get funding for itself to survive being a Phoenix business so little chance of any value there in next 12 months IMO again Valuation Minimal.
4. CLX - this one has potential value. It needs at least another year development and £400k more investment to try and position it. So, Jam tomorrow for 2025 but won’t be contributing to keep VAL alive short term – Valuation I put at £1m top side.
5. Labs - what a farce, zero paying customers, decision to buy cell samples sitting in freezers from Imogen that couldn't make its business viable even with 32 staff at its height and the current BOD want to chuck more of your cash at it. I put lab assets at £500k top side if they could find a buyer. The lab business itself has ZERO value as it stands as it has no business, is incredibly labour intensive and IMO a total liability until it can break even.
So in all, I calculate about £1.5m of assets and a cash burn requirement of £2.5m to feed directors to maintain lifestyles hence why I can't an EV even anything remotely close to where it is today or was previously.
With a new BOD and a penny raise if they can get it, this remains high risk investment. They are certainly in a worse place than before and a heck of a lot of work will be required to turn this around now, that’s If Adrian pulls it off and can secure the support and financial backing to do so.
If he can’t, it’s the end of the line IMO once the cash runs out in a few weeks time. I genuinely think its touch and go now.