Member Info for Porky9

@Hillseeker
Thanks for taking the time out to precis, I also own this book, your research and evaluation was brilliant.
Lets smash this....

@Jackin36
Have 7 on watch list. One other I'm currently in on that i like and building a position on, but as far as i'm concerned there is NO opportunity in this market that offers better upside potential from here than Novacyt.
I am absolutely convinced this is going to multibag from here. Time will tell.

Well we know with Novacyt Inc created and boots on the ground stateside this is certainly a key target market.

As Kaeren's USA post and link some regions even have testing shortages over there!!! The market is absolutely huge. Also, in the background they have been securing all the licensing, all the validations for stateside government contracts so they are positioning themselves for MAJOR contracts over there.

I am really expecting big things from this region. Yet another positive.

Onwards and upwards

Pork's

Is it just me or does anyone else think this now has acquisition written all over it before we reach the fair value?

I did ask the question if the listing in France in anyway protected them against a hostile or other takeover risk and the question was ignored. These are my reasoning: -

1. Full published accounts can be viewed, likewise the H1 and a potential suitor now has following last Wednesday’s presentation a complete forward picture to table an offer subject to due diligence, no problem.

2. The DHSC dispute will be resolved shortly but reserves are stated so again an indicative offer can be made subject to outcomes and earn outs.

3. The CEO is retiring hence if you are going to strike surely now is the absolute perfect time to do so before the new CEO takes over.

4. Share price is still materially undervalued and starting to recover but an acquirer could still secure this business on the cheap and likely shareholders would agree.

5. The company has machinery in situ and is embedded with the NHS, has contracts with UNICEF and the WHO. Has World class R&D and Bioinformatics so surely this makes them an absolute red-hot property to want to own for any major Bio wanting to expand?

6. Diagnostics sector growth is massive going forwards and M&A in this sector is huge and red hot at the moment. This business is a perfect fit for GSK or AZN or Abbots, Thermo and so many others.

I must be honest and say, if they haven’t had an approach yet I would find it most strange frankly?

Anyhow, in the meantime they are pushing ahead strongly increasing market share that’s the main thing. We should be in for a great week here.

Pork’s

As a side bit of information:-
On Thursday Numis restated their BUY rating for Novacyt.
We are awaiting the updated broker note, not seen it yet myself but they previously had fair value at £ 5.70

No broker note out yet from S P Angel either but they have historically rated Novacyt significantly higher.
Nothing from ODDO - hopefully they are on their way out???

IMO i believe that we will break the £ 6 line VERY soon i.e within days on our way to breaking the previous ATH line
GLA

Pork's

England’s coronavirus reproduction number has risen to between 0.9 and 1.2 in the latest Government figures.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-uk-cases-coronavirus-daily-death-toll-b951661.html

“Israel is responding with a vigorous programme of booster jabs and I believe our experience may have several implications for Britain and other countries. Firstly, countries must redouble their efforts to persuade vaccine-refuseniks to get their inoculations"

“Secondly, a policy of booster jabs must be considered for the elderly and those with underlying health conditions. It would be wise to act now to prevent a deadly wave in the UK.”

WE need to LEARN from the impact in Israel.

Also as a side issue, on Friday Reuters reported on the financial Impact on the stock market:
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/london-stocks-drop-oil-mining-stocks-weigh-2021-08-19/

"A theme that has developed across markets is that the spread of the Delta variant is a larger economic issue"
"A jump in global COVID-19 infections and fears that rising inflation would lead central banks to adopt a more hawkish tone have capped the index's gains"

Clearly to me, the worldwide impact of Covid continues and there is no quick fix, with still many challenge ahead diagnostics, genomic mapping and big reliance on Bioinformatics to adjust and support vaccine modifications is here to stay for some time, if not forever frankly.

Very concerning

@troublesome
Just total madness, got to live with it and adjust to that different way of working
Stay Safe
Pork's

The more I research this Biotech the more I like it.

I fully accept there has been past disappointment mainly driven by shareholder dilution from fund raising. Not to mention that there is always uncertainty when a new management team takes over, but I have to say the work they are doing is bloody phenomenal, no other words to describe it.

For me to invest, I must like the company and what they do, like the management team behind it and from an investment case I need to see a high growth opportunity with a Share Price below its underlying value. With Valirx it fully meets all my criteria.

Tonight, we sit at an Mcap of £ 15.7m and a Share price of 24.5p BUT we only have 65m of shares in issue, so it doesn’t take much buying to really move the share price.

Now I follow SP Angel, they are also house broker to another stock I’m heavily backing, and I rate this broker. Now in some notes I read from them they state that the group’s market capitalisation is far less than its peer-group median, which stands at £ 52.1 million, and they consider this price discrepancy is unjustified, considering the two clinical stage drugs and its pre-clinical programme.

So, even at a Share price of 80p it would only be at the market average for this position. IMO the stock is clearly unloved and has been lacking support and coupled by the dilution and management uncertainty Is why it’s been just coasting flat at these levels.

Now I accept there has been a previous false dawn when it was rumoured a deal might be imminent and the share price rallied to 73p and this has also added to investor concerns but, its hardly surprising with a share price this low and the upside potential so high if a deal is struck.

Sareum Holdings (SAR) as a direct comparison is currently at £ 237 mcap that is 15 times our closing price tonight and the main difference is validation. IF Suzy can get a license deal over the line, it will be a “Transformative Year” and I now believe this is what the company means.

Further research showed me that even the smallest license deals are around £ 40m with royalties. Valirx have two on the brink of signing. So, in my considered opinion my price target here of £ 2 (£130m mcap) probably needs revising upwards in line with SAR i.e., £ 3.60

WE will see how events unfold, I fully accept the downside risk of another placement end of Q1 but fair value 80p without a deal and upside to £ 3.60 with deals looks like a cracking risk/reward ratio to me and they have enough cash and time to secure a licensing deal before we need to worry about a further raise and dilution.

As market awareness to Valirx increases I believe the Share Price will climb. We are starting to see that now and these next few weeks could prove to be material to the companies position on the world stage and its associated value.

For the above reasons I’m feeling very positive here and that’s why I’m adding to my position.

GLA

Pork’s

@Kitzie
Totally agree
And what a push further north that will be on the share price as updates follow.
Looking really good..
Take Care, Have a great weekend.
Pork's

Yes, good end to a positive week
New interest created, long may it continue.

Well positioned to build on this into next week, obviously as soon as the licensing deal signed its a whole new ball game but in the meantime happy to see us building on current position and very much looking forward to the H1 Report, presentation and Q&A out shortly.

Onwards and Upwards
Pork's

Yep, we have had worse weeks guys...

Great to off load a few traders as well into the close, that's a few more that will need to buy back in at higher levels next week. Looking very positive, beautify position for continued run next week.

Great to see positive sentiment has returned, a few will be trying to sabotage that no doubt over the weekend but we are hardened to by now, here's to an even greater week next week.

On that note i think a few sherbets are in order. There is a pint with my name on it getting warm...
Take Care All

Pork's

Onwards and Upwards

Like i say...
First License deal over the line and seriously i can see £ 2 + here all day long
I have every confidence...

@PM2022
Hope you don't mind i have been syndicating your post on Twitter.
Sums up the position perfectly
Twitter very much understated for #Valirx yet essential to reach out to new investing communities.

It's good to see positive sentiment returning here. Fresh investor interest building, i can see this 35p VERY short term. My Price target here is north of £ 2. I have every confidence Suzy is going to deliver the first License deal.

GLA

Pork's

@Sodor
Thank you for your considered counter argument to my crude valuation. I respect the fact that you put a calculation behind your conservative estimates. Everyone is entitled to an opinion.

The only point I want to add is that this isn’t an exact science, the AIM market is often more like the wild west, we recently watched Avacta reach the dizzy heights of £800m on £ 3.6m of sales, so Investor sentiment has a heck of a lot to do with share prices on AIM and how high they go.

We currently have VERY positive sentiment returned, long may that continue. Meanwhile, I’m sticking with my £ 18 short term Target.

@All
In my considered opinion, traders prefer a trading range making regular 5% to 10% gains, what they detest is a rampant piggy like me fcking that up by being positive and talking the share up constantly (I am 100% long always) when they have sold and want a lower re-entry point.

This board is frequented with those such traders, its clear as day, some here were blatant Shorter’s. We had people on here predicting £1 a share. I have no time of day for that either.

Anyhow, onwards and upwards from here, great to see the Share Price finally in break out.

I will go on being me, remaining positive, as I say I ONLY care about the SP here going materially higher. Please green bin me if you want to avoid my rampant positivity. I remain more positive than ever about this business. History in the making as far as I’m concerned.
GLA
Pork's

@Troublesome
LOL very good
Take Care
Pork's

@BYP
LOL - Yes, yes, shorter come going long now are we??? You shorted this for best part of a year. I have no time of day for you that's why i block you on Twitter.
Coming the "I've been a long term holder card.... " total BS - you were shorting this like a number of other scum bags... I have no time of day for that.
Please return the favour and green bin me here, your opinion is of ZERO interest to me
Pork's

@Shelldonald
I know who you are from old. Even with your new recent account name. IP address the same. I ignore anything you post. I suggest you green bin my posts in return.

£ 2.36 Target

More than possible. I'm working on £ 2 (£135m mcap) genuinely believe that is NOT unrealistic with one signed deal over the line. Now if two get signed.... different again.

Time will tell

@Soder
Chill out, off the high horse, re-read the H1, £ 95m Revenue invoiced and delivered. £40m is DHSC granted BUT i still believe this will settled in our favour. Even without the DHSC second half as we enter flu season will also add, H2 imo will come in stronger than H1, time will tell.

Think you need a snickers this morning, jeeze.....

@Soder
Lighten up, I don't agree with your analysis frankly...

1. I am not guided by £100m revenue and 40% margin for 2021 when they have already delivered £95m in the H1 at a materially higher margin. The estimate is Conservative with a capital C. They are currently running at a significantly higher margin than 40% and further i believe that the DHSC issue will resolve in our favour AND Cash at Bank by the end of this year will also be materially higher i.e more than £ 150m. My calculation does not take that into account either.

2. Don't come the "I have pulled you before" card, this is a chat group, we are not doing due diligence here on a precise calculations. I have already said its a very "Crude" calculation. Its as crude as they come but its my opinion and i will stick with it thanks.

Finally, if i want to be a Rampy Piggy, i will be one. Anyone can be anything they want to be on these boards and I have put my flag in the sand, money where my mouth is and will see you at £ 18 in a few weeks time... Oh and if you were trading a few, i hope we open up higher and you need to pay more to get back in.

Good Luck

Pork's

Nice to see the sentiment change, totally refreshing

If you remember the September Bull run from £ 4 to £ 12+ it was over the course of about three weeks, this will be similar imo. Except this time i believe we will bounce initially higher to around the £ 17 to £ 18 mark and GM can pass the baton to David with his head held high knowing he helped make that happen! So just over a 4 Bag from here imo.

Now it won’t be in a straight line, we will have days where the SP will pull back a bit then a day or so later move up again, don't watch the SP every move and try and catch highs and lows, its easy to miss out and pay higher to get back in. I am building a reasonable holding here and I DONT trade any of it, not worth the risk. Just sit back relax, strap in, and enjoy the ride.

Now, i remain bullish and a number will think, here is Pork's yet again with a Rampy post but very quickly i will explain why we will initially run to £ 18: -

1. The business has just proven their LONGEVITY. Deals signed with NHS, UNICEF and the 2 year WHO deal totally cement their future now.

2. With 170 machines in situ in the NHS and major external partners including Excalibur, Wren, and others they are
incredibly well-placed supporting labs and hospital settings and have an established worldwide network of partners and resellers its huge.

3. Very KEY, ongoing revenues, expansion into other diagnostic verticals and allowing for fall back Covid revenues slowly replaced over the next five years still ensure this business will be delivering on a regular basis materially north of £60 to £80m EBITDA per year. I think we can all agree this is the MINIUMUM long term expectation now. Plus, world class Bioinformatics.

Now in the current year to Dec 21 lets face it, with Winterplex and Stateside uplift and the increase in travel testing, Revenues and EBITDA will be significantly higher but for the purpose of this post lets just go with £ 70m as the expected AVERAGE ongoing position. Personally, I believe we will grow even higher through acquisition hence my higher long-term goal target of £ 54 but let’s stick with short term for now.

PE Ratio for this sector is an AVERAGE of X18 I have already given the example of EKF where it trades on a PE Ration of X32, and this will now come into play but let’s go with the average.
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/e/ekf-diagnostics-holdings-plc-ord-1p

SO £70m X 18 divided by 70m shares in issue gives you £ 18 share Price. It’s a very rough crude calculation I know, not considering other factors yada yada but this is its natural short-term sitting position imo. It will go higher longer term and its PE will go even higher than X18 imo due to the Bioinformatics side being so unique BUT therefore I’m confident

Time will tell anyhow, in a few weeks time we will have the answer…

GLA