Member Info for Porky9

@Poidster
Always value and appreciate your researched posts, always good to have contributions from those involved in the sector.
I’ve said to you before, it’s a thankless task posting on here at times, don’t let it get to you
Take Care
Pork’s

Need to re-read and absorb over the next few days; my initial reaction is:-

1. Full credit to Suzy for Listening to Retail SH. She didn't need to make the effort to do this so credit where credit is due albeit that some answers were political type replies.

2. It does looks like they will be presenting to II for sure for further funding. Why appoint a specialist to support that otherwise?. So maybe a deal is unlikely to land that quick or it wont be enough upfront to avoid a placement? If a deal was going to land with cash up front you wouldn't need the broker?

3. Funds would rather agree a placing at a set discounted rate imo rather than buy at market rates. As such as Cenkos have warrants at 22p, if i was a Bio tech fund and i was prepared to invest a few mil, i would want a better deal than Cenkos because the fund would be putting up hard cash V Cenkos only buying on a sure bet i,e at 22p once the SP is higher.

4. It kind of feels that they may shore up funding for say the next five years and extend the product lines maybe? Anyhow, say £ 1.5m-£1.6m a year X 5 a placing to raise call it £ 9m with broker fees and costs backed by say three funds at a three mil each, that sort of thing but at a discount??

Anyhow, should know more soon but i think if i was a fund, the last set of warrants were at 12.5p i might be looking to support a placement somewhere between 12.5p and 22p say 15p? I certainly wouldn't be buying above 22p at this stage??
As i say, need to consider more.
Will Retail be able to subscribe to a placing at a discounted rate?

I thought shorter's were prepared to sell anything to grub a few quid, wives, mums, you name it.....

@BYP
Glad you have seen the light instead of shorting, much healthier for you :)

Well its not a willy waving exercise
I hold stock at all levels from £10 to £3, it doesn't matter, everyone has different investment perspectives and objectives.
Matter of time before anything sub £ 10 is going to look mighty cheap...
GLA

Not really much to think about for the researched here.... Screaming Red Hot Buy all day long...
But if you are still unsure for any soft reason here are a

1. Now a partner of the American Society of Human Genetics alongside the likes of Thermo and Roche
2. The SNPsig® EscapePLEX SARS-CoV-2, is the first in the market to detect the following mutations:
•Alpha •Beta •Gamma •Delta •Delta Plus
And as our Assays run on ANY hardware not just our own, its no wonder Major labs around the world are buying Promate.
3. UNICEF Deal
4. PHE £3 bn National Framework Award
5. WHO - Two Year supply agreement signed with the World Heath Organisation
6. Revenue for the first half of 2021 increased over 50% to £94.7 million - we are invoicing worldwide sales whilst the rest of the market are talking about it.
7. Major partnerships across the Travel sector including Wren, Excalibur, possibly as much as 70% of the market cornered.
8. World Class Bioinformatics - Already over 2 million Genome Sequences mapped
9. World class R&D - Due out any Moment 2nd Gen Antibody test to INSTANTLY detect Antibody levels from Vaccines and from Contracting Covid and if you need a booster.
10. All bases covered: PCR, LFT, Saliva
11. Supplying practically EVERY country around the world 130 Active
12. Over 600 Diagnostics Tests Covering Numerous Verticals NOT just Covid, They deliver tests in Maternity, Cancer Tumor tests, Veterinary and are in practically EVERY sector from private Heath Hospitals, NHS, Schools through to even Oil Rigs

And there's more.... If you are still not keeping up and want to invest here take five mins to at least read the website specifically:-

The Strategy Update June 2021
https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Novacyt-2020-Full-Year-Results-Strategy-update-Final-website-version-for-29.06.2021-1.pdf

The Annual Report
https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Novacyt-AR-2021-2806-spreads.pdf

This is a world class Diagnostics group, It is history in the making. This is an opportunity to own a slice of this great company before the rest of the market and IIs move in when the DHSC matter gets closed off.

And we are sitting here at £ 275m Mcap value. Crazy but its how it is. Business is worth MANY Many Multiples of this.
If you are still not convinced look at the deals for diagnostics acquisitions in the market. You can't buy anything of quality under £ 700m and certainly not of the level of this company that's for sure.

Good luck, i'm still adding, the bed wetters and doubters can do what they like....

Pork's

Are we all Rested after the Bank Holiday....
Think the Bulls are due for a Run Out now....
Can we repeat the Bull Run Of 2020?
In Time for Hand Over to David?
1st Sept 2020 to 26th October 2020
£ 4.02 to £ 12.25
You bet we can...... It's looking Good Guys... Everything Lining up Perfectly....
Feeling VERY Confident
GLA
Pork's

@HKK
Agree Sanofi is a good fit with and it's on French Soil
Although, GSK and AZN are also both serious contenders
Then you have the Big Diagnostics players, Thermo Fisher, Roche, Abbotts.... etc etc
There are multiple suitors...

With an Mcap this low, you will also have the private equity players looking at it, the sum of the divisions including the world class Bioinformatics, R&D capabilities, IP established network and goodwill, Primer Design, Microgen, IT-IS, Lab 21 is greater than then the mcap. They could break it up and sell it off.
The cash at bank figure is now also likely half the mcap as an added bonus to them.
Crazy....

Whichever way you cut this the reaction to this deal has not been great.

The issue here as I see it is that we are all looking forward to the presentation and Q&A and Suzy drops this one on us before the event and now the focus of attention has switched to the deal. Previously the talk was about a “transformative” year.

We all know the risk / rewards here: -
Reward: She secures a Deal with an upfront payment and royalties and immediately the company is secure, and the SP rises. No cash call required.
Risk: She doesn’t secure a deal by the end of the year, will run out of cash end of Q1 and spends the first three months of 22 on a new placement deal. SP tanks again.

Now, some of you here have invested in VAL for a lot longer than I have. Some have kindly connected with me on Twitter and expressed concerns. The number one complaint has been the endless cycle of running out of cash and raising funds and the subsequent dilution. Several LTH needs this stock to be north of 50p or more to have any chance of recovery.

So, by Suzy doing this deal with a conversion price at 22p its like her saying that she is not confident in the SP rising that much on a deal?

The brokers services are worth about £ 30k a year imo, they would earn big money on a placing. If the SP rose to £ 1.22, they would earn £ 4m on this deal. Now on the one hand its great they have a vested interest in the SP climbing but on the other, you also ask yourself if a deal was likely to be done this year, a cash raise wouldn’t be required and she could afford to pay 30k or even £100k in broker fees if she had to, without having to revert to a success-based fee like this?

Currently, I’m not sure what to think if I’m honest. This deal came totally out of the blue for me. I was looking at building a substantial position here but as it stands, I’m holding but NOT adding for now until I hear what she has to say. I can’t see the advantage of this deal commercially but perhaps I’m missing something here?

Hopefully all will be revealed soon….

Pork's

apologies @kaeren
I'm still digging, looking good from my side, it takes so long to get FDA UAE its not an easy switch to change providers quickly, the more of these lab type clients they can secure stateside the better for increased longevity imo.
Onwards and Upwards

Meanwhile, a further update from Novacyt would work wonders at the moment:-
* Second Gen Antibody Test
* Saliva Test Update
* Q & A from Investor Meets
* Winterplex US Validation
* Contract Updates....

Go Novacyt....
GLA
Pork's

For me the biggest question I’m asking is this: Our competitors will be aware of Novacyts success, in the stateside example with the Compass Laboratory yet again Thermo Fisher are losing market share to Novacyt.

We are stealing business under the noses of Roche and other major players in the diagnostics sector. We have secured UNICEF, we have secured the WHO, we have secured a £3bn four-year PHE supply deal with the NHS and we are now successfully attacking Stateside markets.

IMO we are killing the competition. Add to that our world class Bioinformatics and quick reacting R&D and there is no stopping us. So, what can our competitors do about it?

On Friday our Market Cap was a pathetic £ 275m which is woefully inadequate, it would be laughable if it wasn’t so serious and its still being toyed with at these prices! Give me a break. M&A in this sector is hot and a deal went down only a couple of weeks ago for a diagnostics player at many multiples of our mcap on a business a fraction of our size.

Sorry guys, but in my considered opinion, we must have takeover target written all over us now.

Frankly, if I was the CEO over at Thermo Fisher for example I would be wanting to know why a major lab was buying their hardware yet was buying someone else’s products to run on it, I would want to know why the bloody hell my team were not in at the WHO, how they missed the UNICEF deal and why they have only a small amount of NHS business.

OK, you can’t win every deal, I appreciate that, but we are talking giant enterprises here, this is real Samson and Goliath stuff going on….

Thermo Fisher are so big they could buy Novacyt with their petty cash! Likewise, Roche, Abbotts, GSK, and everyone else, It’s a total no brainer.

Currently, the market is not respecting our true value, maybe the DHSC is the aspect holding us back despite the values being fully known. We know best- and worst-case scenario, as such imo we are a sitting duck, it’s a matter of time imo either the SP increases materially or we get taken out, the clock is ticking imo….

Let’s see what next week brings.

Pork’s

Increasing traction in the USA with several wins; full credit to @Kaeren for quickly identifying a recent FDA Emergency Use Authorisation (EUA) that was secured by Compass Laboratory Services to operate fully approved Covid Testing facilities at a specified lab in Memphis:
https://www.fda.gov/media/140078/download

This lab is situated in Nonconnah Blvd, Memphis and has geared up for testing contracts, this is an image of the lab in Memphis which has 55 designated staff: -
https://tinyurl.com/3d3h8pdt

In my opinion, what is significant here is that this lab facility is using hardware from Applied Biosytems which is the American arm of Thermo Fisher YET it has selected Novacyt’s Primer Design subsidiary for the Assays or the “Razor Blades” as I like to refer to them.

Clearly Novacyt are successful in winning these sorts of contracts. They go under the radar for obvious competitive reasons, but the deals are secured, and the clients are securing the respective FDA clearance for the purpose.

The USA is major hunting ground for Novacyt and with recent own supply validations over there, they are positioning nicely for some decent sized contracts wins.

The beauty of our product range is that they operate on ANY machinery brand not just our own kit, this enables Novacyt to target practically ANY lab anywhere in the world.

Onwards and Upwards, go Novacyt…

Pork’s

@MikeSilver
I see, yeah, you mean you can't see another government or private hospital group anywhere in the world agreeing say a 4 year deal? Like say; only the 4 year £ 3bn PHE framework contract we secured for two of our subsidiary companies....

Sorry, but the business is out there, this isn't going away, its evolving and changing and we are learning to adjust to living with it. Novacyt Bioinformatics are busy mapping but we need to stay ahead and worldwide this is fast becoming the known harsh reality.

I can see some sizable long term deals landing for sure... not to mention for Winterplex. Flu isn't going anywhere either, it also keeps changing, just not as deadly as Covid is currently.

I'm still adding here, highly confident for sure...

GLA

Even more amazing coming from Bethell who just loves the cheap Chinese LFT tat.

Bottom line though, an LFT can only detect a known and predetermined Covid variants, not a new one that could come across the water. Not to mention other countries don't want UK citizens bringing our variants to their country. So the decision is the right one.

PCR all the way and mapping to ensure we stay ahead of ANY new variants.

Great, another reason to buy Novacyt shares and lock them away in a draw ....

GLA

@Kaeren
So it looks like they moving to 9mths being the threshold point as the vaccines start to wane and not considered as not effective enough. Interesting.

Perhaps boosters every 9 months for travel and a rapid antibody test for others to see if they need the booster at 9mths or can run to an annual jab with the flu jab combined?

I have to say it will be interesting to see what the take up rate will be like for the 3rd Booster. Having had the double Zeneca one, lets not go there, i'm really hoping i can have the pfizer one next time around but i think many may decline it.
As a generalisation, the percentage for another follow up booster is likely to fall back imo

@troublesome
Each and every one a tragic, tragic loss, someone's loved one, just awful.
Nothing we can do and this is before the schools go back so almost guaranteed to rise.
As we now know, anything less than <137 deaths is considered as Collateral damage by the government. Perhaps if BJs dad, one of his kids mums, some of his friends and relations were in those 133 the government view wouldn't be quite so cavalier.
Not looking good as we move into September at this rate.
Pork's

In Scotland where the kids go back to school before they do elsewhere, within two weeks the infection rates increased:-
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-does-surge-in-cases-after-scottish-schools-reopened-suggest-infections-could-rise-uk-wide-12392350

"It's important to point out that case numbers are rising across the UK just now, but after a period of slower increases in Scotland the rise here is particularly sharp at the moment. That is possibly, at least in part, a reflection of the fact that our schools return earlier, with the increased interactions that come with that."

Frankly, Novacyt need the spit test validated and out asap meanwhile, government need to wake up and sign up to spit tests for the children and get decent control installed ready for when they start back, be proactive here rather than reactive.

The train is on the tracks and we can see it coming... this is not rocket science, its plain obvious.

Pork's

We were discussing a couple of weeks back what we though the governments view was.

Well if any truth in this article from the inews:-
https://inews.co.uk/news/boris-johnson-privately-accepts-up-to-50000-annual-covid-deaths-as-an-acceptable-level-1170069
The acceptable "Collateral Damage" figure is 50,000 deaths a year: 137 deaths a Day.

“The Prime Minister is minded to implement another lockdown or new restrictions only if the figure of annual deaths looks like it’s going to go above 50,000. That means deaths from Covid of 137 a day, or just under 1,000 a week.
However, it won’t be an immediate reaction. A sustained rate of death of around a 1,000 a week for two or three weeks will, though, lead to discussion on restrictions being re-imposed. Unfortunately, prime ministers have to weigh up the cost of saving lives to the impact on the economy. No one wants to talk about that’s how it works.”

Meanwhile Nationally:-
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
We are just breaking 100 deaths daily However, infection rates and hospitalisation rates are still climbing, the vaccine efficacy levels are waning and the schools haven't gone back yet.

Grim reading i know but this is the UK position were are faced with and lets face it we are one of the leading countries in the world in terms of Vaccination take up rates.

Stay safe everyone

Pork's

@Senetor01
Funny you should say that
When they update the Q&As on the Investor meets next week and put into a downloadable PDF i am going to do just that!!!!
Not sure it will have much impact but im going to try, nothing to lose and worth a shot
On that note i really need to go, a few sherbet's with my name on going warm
Take care BBL
Porks

Not sure really why anyone gives a fig anymore about this UK government and its absolute BS mantra about "Buying British". Don't get me wrong, i appreciate that over at OXD Colin was promised up to £374m of government business and that's just atrocious really that the government have reneged on it BUT they are not to be trusted. Look how DHSC have treated us, look how they treated Abingdon Health? look at the deals actually done NOT what the government are wanting you to hear is policy. Its not they want it as cheap as possible.

Whilst you have the likes of Bethell and his Chinese wife on the scene they will just plough on regardless with zero accountability. When the FDA pulled Innova as unsafe, what did DHSC do? they extended the contact. Despite the cheap Chinese tat coming over the water they still buy more of it, Orient Gene tat was next.

I was in boots earlier today, a guy asked for the free LFTs and the assistant gave him a the white NHS braded box which includes 7 tests, she asked him his name as his age group and why he wanted the tests. He said i'm visiting my 94 year old grandad he said and i just wanted to check i was clear. He opened the box on the counter, even one of the leaflets was in bloody Chinese, i could see its was from the Chinese manufacture - i recognise the tat.

The guys chances of any accuracy from this test are minimal but the government plough on with it regardless and the public are oblivious. We only know about it here because we understand the difference.

Fortunately for Novacyt they have built a massive network with the private sector and worldwide distribution of same, as such we are not reliant on the government throwing any LFT orders our way at all, it doesn't matter, its just a bonus.

We have loads of other business to be getting on with and im absolutely confident that our Saliva test and our second gen Antibody test will be out shortly and sell like hot cakes worldwide even if none are sold here!!!! Yet another revenue stream for us.

So b@llox to UK Government and their passion for cheap tat, i'm past caring... on that note im going down the pub. At least its open..... for now...

Pork's