Member Info for Porky9

Not long before visitors twig that certain posters have a trading objective to highlight negatives when the want to put off buyers and the share price to slide and join the positives when they want the SP to go up.

Look at the last 20 posts

My earlier post simply highlighting the positives. Instead of drowning in the same posts of negativity - The bloody DHSC dispute has been done to death. its more than priced in, we are down at at £ 263m mcap for Christs sake...

Enjoy...

Just to clarify further:-

Market Cap as at tonight based on data supplied by Hargreaves Lansdown is down at £ 259m and the PE Ratio is less than X2 in fact its X 1.93 You can see here:-
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/n/novacyt-eur0.0667-cdi

So we remain seriously oversold and significantly undervalued. The current value really is quite preposterous for a business of this magnitude and position.

GLA

The AGM is now fast approaching and with so many aspects to be updated on, i would be very surprised if they didn't put some kind of update out before the the AGM.

I know last year the full H1 was published on the 18th September so its highly likely that will be out soon. There are also some validations we need and also an update on the trading position stateside.

With the City returning after the summer holidays I'm also hopeful volumes will start rising. Also, I think when David starts he will be much stronger at PR than GM and we need that for sure.

More attention is required to the great things this company is doing. For example the recent contract to support the World Heath Organisation was absolutely MAJOR yet its hardly been mentioned. For a Surrey based business to be helping the WHO with VOCs is really quite something yet it's had minimal coverage, its the best kept secret!!!!

Anyhow, frustrating if you are a long term holder but the SP will ultimately catch up with the fundamentals here. They are doing significant volumes, the bioinformatics side is world class and the is business going from strength to strength. We should be valued materially higher than £ 265m and we will be, as i say i genuinely believe its just a matter of time now.

GLA

It's very easy to quickly lose sight of the positives here and new Investors may not necessarily have the time to do some of the research that some of us here have done. As such I am reposting some of the recent highlights:-

1. Now a partner of the American Society of Human Genetics alongside the likes of Thermo and Roche
2. The SNPsig® EscapePLEX SARS-CoV-2, is the first in the market to detect the following mutations:
•Alpha •Beta •Gamma •Delta •Delta Plus
And as Assays run on ANY hardware not just Novacyt's own, its no wonder Major labs around the world are buying Promate.
3. UNICEF Deal
4. PHE £3 bn National Framework Award
5. WHO - Two Year supply agreement signed with the World Heath Organisation - it doesn't get better than that.
6. Revenue for the first half of 2021 increased over 50% to £94.7 million - we are invoicing worldwide sales whilst the rest of the market are talking about it.
7. Major partnerships across the Travel sector including Wren, Excalibur, possibly as much as 70% of the market cornered.
8. World Class Bioinformatics - Already over 2 million Genome Sequences mapped
9. World class R&D - Due out any Moment 2nd Gen Antibody test to INSTANTLY detect Antibody levels from Vaccines and from Contracting Covid and if you need a booster.
10. All bases covered: PCR, LFT, Saliva
11. Supplying practically EVERY country around the world 130 Active
12. Over 600 Diagnostics Tests Covering Numerous Verticals NOT just Covid, They deliver tests in Maternity, Cancer Tumor tests, Veterinary and are in practically EVERY sector from private Heath Hospitals, NHS, Schools through to even Oil Rigs

Our market cap is on the floor at £ 275m, ultimately it has to re-rate as it doesn't even remotely correlate. BUT for new investors its a great opportunity to buy in cheap and a good time to add if you are a holder here.

GLA

Pork's

Looks like a signed US Distributor that Novacyt supply is supplying other smaller distributors around the world with stock.
Good to see our products getting out there anyhow...

@Mr_Big
I totally agree, it's a completely ludicrous situation here. You only need to look around the market at the deals being done within Diagnostics and you really couldn't acquire anything even a fraction of the size of Novacyt for anything close to this valuation.

The problem as i see it is that with our own value so ridiculously low, it will make it very difficult to acquire another large diagnostics business as the values will be miles apart. Hence, they will be looking for smaller additions to bring in or new innovations they can expand out.

As i have said earlier, the longer we stay at this valuation level, we just become a sitting duck. I'm absolutely amazed that Thermo, Abbotts or one of the other big players have not yet made a move!!. Even a hostile takeover from a Private Equity group, Its a total no brainer. And i don't buy that its just its down to the DHSC issue because they will know the extent of the situation, they know the worst and best case scenarios, so could still pitch an offer in.

Anyhow, something has to give here. I continue to Hold and Add as funds permit. It's just crazy.

GLA

@B2HS2l
Appreciate the evaluation, Sounds logical. lets hope the changes take us up a gear!!!

I also think David will be the catalyst for change, they have lacked that positive front end spokesman for some time now, even now the company is silent yet has so many things they could update us on. We need someone with real positivity at the front telling the world how great they are. Doing interviews, articles, presentations etc. It will come.

Also, as far as I'm aware in addition to the AGM this month I'm expecting the H1 balance sheet confirmations. I'm fairly confident they have to report on these before the end of September. Last year it was on the 18th with the H1 Results so we could end up seeing a fairly big update soon covering off all these loose ends.

GLA

@proverloop
It was @Wilson63 that found it
bloody good overview....
Go Novacyt...

F Me @Wilson 63
Now that is good.... if that doesn't excite nothing will....
Has that just gone live?

@sir_digby
100% in agreement, its a detailed and forward point.

Last year a provision for buy back was included but not used, this time it's is much more detailed and specific.

I could be totally wrong, but my gut feeling is they are lining up for a stateside acquisition and as part of that deal will need to issue a number of share option blocks to incoming Directors of that Stateside business and this is the vehicle to do it. I don't see any point in Novacyt acting on this provision unless you are going to do something with the share stock?

7m shares brought back under control, rough calc would lift the SP from today to say about £5?? and give them about £35m of share options to award?? Interesting.

Pork's

I'm actually pro an increase in share capital if its needed as part of a substantial acquisition. The way i see it is that they either acquire OR they get acquired!!

IMO As at today they are EXTREMELY vulnerable to being taken over, hostile or otherwise with the mcap value on the floor at £ 265m - interested to see how events unfold here.

GLA

@sir_digby
Yes, indeed the voting resolutions are available

Nothing of specific interest, looking forward to the actual meeting where they can expand further.

From my perspective most of it just standard issue the only points to note of interest:-

1. Clearly the still dispute weighs heavy on the Share price despite all of the exceptional work in this financial year. Depending on how that is settled will affect reserves. This is why the SP has been completely battered. That being said I feel that from this point, taking all matters into account the upside will be significant once concluded. The difference between resolutions 1 and 2 is a loss of 2m or a profit of 132m – bit of a difference. I will vote Yes.

2. Resolution 6. Buy back of 10% of shares at up to 12 Euro max price. 7m shares. Further expands that could be used for options in an acquisition or part of a deal. Similar resolution was agreed last year and not acted on although I do accept that IF they make an acquisition this may come into play. I will vote Yes.

3. Resolution 7. Renew Mr. Jean-Pierre Crinelli’s position on the board for another three years. Want to see what he says at the AGM but will likely vote yes

4. Resolution 8. Renew Mr. Andrew Heath position on the board for another three years. Want to see what he says at the AGM but will likely I will vote Yes.

5. Resolution 9. Tony Dyer is standing down and James McCarthy is replacing him. Interesting move especially as James has significant stateside experience. Do we think an T/O is about to happen? Interesting – I will vote yes

6. Resolution 16. To sum up looks like if they allocate free shares / options to staff board etc they can do so BUT they need to be purchased out of the share buy back. If I am Understanding this correctly – as such I will vote Yes.

I need to read the notes on Share issue in much more detail but on the face of it looks like standard wording. As for directors wages, its standard rate. It’s the LTIP bonus I don’t like an there is no mention of what will be in place when David takes over.

Onwards and Upwards

Pork’s

Not sure if the MMs want to bore the remaining long-term holders into selling or the AIM has now just become one giant online Casino where revenues and assets count for nothing, and the market rewards the companies with a good “Story” and zero substance whilst hammering the ones delivering revenues.

Here Is Novacyt, completely oversold and out of favour despite all the great work being carried out with the NHS, UNICEF, WHO etc etc.

When you strip it back to its core, dumping anything DHSC, ignoring its Bioinformatics, R&D etc its still a business DELIVERING circa £10m a month revenue but look at all the infrastructure established, the network, the IP etc.
To replicate this business now or buy a business of this status you are talking significant premium.

You look at all recent deals in the marketplace and there are companies being acquired in this sector a fifth of the size of Novacyt and they are being sold for £500-600m. Today we are sitting at pathetically low Market Cap of £ 265m.
I mean come on, its absolutely bloody absurd, it totally defies all logic.

Well, the AGM is here very shortly. I understood voting papers were starting to go out from Monday, I haven’t had mine yet. As far as I know a further update must be due otherwise, we will have nothing to vote against!

I am still adding to my position here in the belief that ultimately fundamentals should shine through, but I have to say, shareholders have been tested. If the board of Directors can’t illustrate to the market how well they are doing then they should consider selling the business because the SP is nowhere near reflective of true value here, it’s a joke. IMO, we remain Materially undervalued here by a yard mile, something must give.

GLA

'Mu' variant has been detected in EVERY US state except Nebraska: Scientists fear it is more transmissible than Delta and could be vaccine resistant:-
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9964415/Mu-variant-detected-U-S-state-except-Nebraska.html

The Mu variant of COVID-19- which scientists fear could be more transmissible than Delta - has now been detected in all U.S. states with the exception of Nebraska. Florida and California have reported 384 variant cases- the highest numbers among the 49 infected U.S. states. Los Angeles County reported close to half of the California cases with 167

Reality: From other reports Its unlikely this one will be the next biggest threat to us compared to Delta Variant. But it illustrates perfectly why we need to keep on top of VOCs. We cannot allow a situation where a Variant mutates into something far more dangerous.

Incidentally, this specific Variant was identified by the WHO which as we all know is currently supported by Novacyt.

At some point this business will get the recognition it deserves and the valuation to match. They are doing some truly outstanding work in the field in keeping us safe.

GLA

Q22: Is it still the company’s aspiration to become a mid-cap company and how do you intend to achieve this?

Novacyt has established a reputation for delivering best-in-class products and is now generating significant revenues from across the world, is building a global brand, and has a strong balance sheet, all of which will support the company’s growth trajectory as we continue deliver against our stated strategy.

So there you have it, they will continue to build, expand outwards via organic growth and M&A, a global brand. This is history in the making.

Mid Cap Status = £ 2bn to £10bn Market Cap.

Close tonight: A pathetic £ 265m Market Cap - clearly someway to go yet,,,,

GLA

Pork's

Significant Partners for sure

Novacyts reach continues to expand via its partner network. The beauty also of Promote specifically is its multi platform capability.

It doesn't matter if the lab has installed Thermo Fisher, Roche or ANY other hardware, the Novacyts Assay can run on own Gensig hardware or any other - Every lab worldwide is a potential client.

Onwards and upwards

UK records 41,192 new COVID cases on Monday

England’s rate of new cases of coronavirus has started to rise once more. Third day in a row the weekly rate has increased.
Being Double Jabbed does NOT stop you Catching Covid. It reduces risk of Death but NOT being ill.

Testing times in every sense of the word....

Stay Safe

Pork's

The spit collection receptacle is just a plastic turned part.

I actually watched one being made a few years back and they literally put all the specifications into a computer on a plastic mounding machine and it churns them out by the thousand, but you are talking setting up another manufacturing process for this. The moulding machines are a fairly big investment also.

At the moment its possibly more hassle than its worth to manufacture the plastic receptacle. Just buy them in and ship them out as an associated part with the order.

To be honest, you are probably talking pence for these plastic turned parts, but I guess if sales volumes really took off and they found massive ongoing demand for the saliva tests, then it might be worth buying a small plastic moulding business in Surrey to exclusively manufacture, probably a fair few about.

I did read in the press about shortages of blood collection tubes:
https://tinyurl.com/fr6ncum8

Maybe a market there for manufacture and supply of saliva receptacles and plastic tubes? We have run down manufacture in the UK bigtime, being reliant on overseas production perhaps its time to take back control…. Something else.

Just to reclarify key points regarding the Path flow Rapid test range. We are a due an update on the Rapid Test lines anytime now. Currently we have: -

1. Pathflow Covid-19 Rapid Antigen Pro
https://microgenbioproducts.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/08/GMM-169-Version-1-PathFlow%C2%AE-COVID-19-Rapid-Antigen-Pro-Sales-Sheet.pdf
So, this product is fully on the market, good to go, its CE Marked and sold via the network
Units of packs of 20 – Great

2. Pathflow Covid Rapid Antigen Test (Saiva Test)
This is the biggie imo as I can see Saliva Tests selling very well via the network. However, this product that is not yet CE Marked nor is it ready for sale. Now I would imagine its VERY close for release but its this one rather than the regular LFT above that will likely make the most impact.

3. Pathflow Covid Rapid Antibody Test (Blood)
https://microgenbioproducts.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2021/07/PathFlow%C2%AE-SARS-CoV-2-IgG-Rapid-Test-Flier-R3-GMM166-RGB-SCREEN.pdf
This product is fully on the market, good to go, being sold via the network
Units of packs of 25 – Great

4. Pathflow – Second Gen Antibody Test (Blood)
This test is also going to be massive imo as we understand it will differentiate between natural Antibody’s and those from the vaccine. We are told the product release is expected this quarter. So again its VERY close for release.

If I’m honest, I was dismissive of the basic LFT Antigen test, due to the flood of competing products and tat produced in China driving prices down. It is very much a high-volume low margin product game albeit based on current capacity at Novacyt it could add £100m a year to revenues so we can’t complain, it’s a nice to have additional line.

I was however surprised to read that Stateside where we are now building out a position, has a serious product shortage. Because there is no free health service as such, they sell these LFT tests via stores and they retail at between $25 and $40 USD a test, so the margins stateside are strong compared to Europe and ROI. However, the USA only permit FDA approved products. There are 34 products stateside currently validated: -
https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-emergency-use-authorizations-medical-devices/in-vitro-diagnostics-euas-antigen-diagnostic-tests-sars-cov-2

So, we need to get FDA validated and on this list if we are to hit this market with this Rapid test range.

The next update on Rapid Products could prove exciting and can’t be far off now… I’m specifically wanting to know how validation of our Saliva test is going, how close the second gen test is and what impact we can make Stateside.

The comments from Katalyst are also encouraging if some of this Chinese tat is removed and home markets improve BUT i will still take Stateside all day long. If we get FDA validation secured, huge numbers, not to mention demand stateside is currently greater than ever :
https://tinyurl.com/8rwewaym

With Influeza (flu) changing every year no doubt Winterplex will be awaiting FDA approval for Stateside use. An update due at any moment.

The exact timing and duration of the flu season Stateside can vary, but influenza activity often begins to increase in October. Most of the time flu activity peaks between December and February, although activity can last as late as May.
See image:
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1434380440543055880/photo/1

Meanwhile the CDC is urging labs to use COVID tests that can differentiate from the flu:-
https://www.nouvelles-du-monde.com/le-cdc-exhorte-les-laboratoires-a-utiliser-des-tests-covid-qui-peuvent-differencier-de-la-grippe/

This year its going to be more important than ever to quickly distinguish between Covid and Influenza. Historically this was never an issue but it is now hence Winterplex sales are likely to be materially higher going forwards

GLA