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Yeah, all in line with expectations. Opening up regardless of the risks, but retaining testing at borders, schools, nhs, test & trace and throwing responsibility on to businesses and individuals for the rest. We’ll see, knowing that lot, they’ll switch from Innova to Orient Gene, despite it being completely unsuitable as well

Good to see the Innova Medical Group replying to it

Picture the scene, you're a business owner and want to protect your business and staff to reduce disruption. You'd like to conduct testing and look on the govt list. You find that there's a test that provides perfect results that costs £6 or you can buy a piece of plastic that's as good as a coin flip, but look! It's a bargain - only £3.

Yeah, they'll be buying at the cheapest price. Covidiots.

The govt should be watching that very carefully. They're currently releasing weekly stats suggesting that the vaccines offer good protection, but that's also based on the current restrictions. Once lifted, they'll find unfortunately find out the hard way what the true efficacy is. Hospitalisations are rising, not as fast thanks to the vaccines, but left unfettered there'll be an awful lot of people seriously ill / suffering from long covid - of all ages. Plus the increased risk of further mutations... same arguments... matched by the same moronic politically motivated actions.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/05/covid-wildly-successful-pop-up-coronabikes-test-german-love-of-order

Some snippets:

A new study published by the University of Bonn on Thursday suggests weekly rapid tests for 42% of Germany’s population in May 2021 played a more crucial part in the steep drop-off in infection rates than vaccines.

“From a doctor’s point of view, I understand the reservations”, said Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, a professor of Applied Microeconomics at the University of Bonn and one of the study’s co-authors. “But from a public health perspective, it made a massive difference”.

“If you look at low vaccination rates in some parts of the world, and the speed with which we have seen new variants develop, it should be clear that this pandemic is far from over,”, the Green politician Dahmen told the Guardian.

“Especially if we don’t manage to agree on consistent pandemic regulations across Europe, then testing will remain a vital public health screening tool.”

Testing people most at risk? That makes zero sense, by then it’s too late. You need to regular test anyone that is likely to come in to contact with those most at risk.

The official govt response to that is:
‘We don’t know how much it will reduce the risk of you passing on the virus. So it is important to continue to follow current national guidance.’

So, they don’t know, but they’re willing to have a gamble and remove all restrictions anyway. That’s despite an appeal today from the BMA to retain some.

Incidentally, from having read the article snippets on twatter, looks like they’re continuing test and trace but not mandating the use of tests, but still providing them. So, even if the majority choose to ignore them and risk infecting others, the govt will still be purchasing a huge number of tests. There are 30,000 new infections a day. This will rise, but even flat, that’s over 200,000 infections a week. How many contacts each? 10? 2m tests a week assuming no spike in cases? They really need a decent test to give out - but we all know they’ll be sending out leftover coin flip tests from innova

The wording is suggesting ‘personal responsibility’. In other words, get your vaccine and then if you don’t care if you kill someone else, that’s fine. However, if you’d like to protect the vulnerable, those that aren’t able to get the vaccine and everyone you meet such as friends, families, colleagues and anyone else you might encounter you can buy your own tests.

The govt position is clearly that with reduced death rates this is now equivalent to flu thanks to vaccines, so do whatever you want. I get it, as you could pop someone’s clogs by giving them flu, but it isn’t the same. Long Covid isn’t understood, it mutates quickly so could escape the vaccine, it has a range of symptoms, has a very high r value, it still results in hospitalisations. I think it’s bonkers and it could backfire extremely quickly, but they’ve made stupid decisions throughout, why stop now…

Read your own post from 17 Mar 2021 15:32

There’s nothing dirty about a comparison. I wouldn’t be surprised if the other test they compared to was Abbott or Roche/SD Biosensor. They will definitely be using their data during discussions, otherwise why obtain it?

(Dons tracksuit and wig….). I’d love it , love it if they published their results and put full page adverts in every paper. They won’t though, it’s not befitting of a shumper wearer.

Yes, it's true of all of them. Kids should be supervised, is that a shock?

I’d hate to sound like one of the tedious boring twunts that post the same obvious repetition every waking day, but the answer is sales. The market has knocked a quid off to account for the reset in expectations that this is now more of a slow burn. Obviously at any point significant news could pop up and exceed current expectations, but for now it’s a slow, steady wait and I don’t look in on the price as often for that reason.

I’ve already tweeted our Alba MP mate Neale, hopefully he’ll be on to it to avoid Orient Gene becoming the next bastardised Chinese test to end up in widespread use

We’ve attempted this comparison before and got nowhere fast unfortunately due to the different target. The proof is in the pudding with the exceptional CV results and the Elisa test that was 500 times better than the market leader. The Elisa bit might have been a lie, I can’t really remember.

It has been CE marked for professional use. Hopefully a professional knows the difference between Um Bongo and the inside of a nostril.

A short video of Darren at work…

https://bit.ly/3dzvMR8

I find it increasingly bizarre that testing isn’t completely widespread to help people isolate and reduce transmission. Particularly when you now have quick, easy to use and accurate tests available. It’s not much of an imposition on anyone’s life to spend a few mins a day trying to make sure that they don’t inadvertently kill someone else. The WHO said test, test, test. The general response now seems to be jab, jab, hope and pray.

Their LFD assumptions are pretty much the bare minimum so it depends how far up to the 5m - 60m scale we'll get. If you assume the same sales pattern for the next 4.5 years then every additional 5m adds about 50p on the share price. Every additional 10% in confidence in AVA6K adds 18p. So if you think we'll get to 30m and believe that AVA6K has more like a 50% chance then you're looking at about £6.25 per share. Get anywhere near 60m and we're talking a tenner. Given their cautious approach you could also upweight other parts of the business. What isn't accounted for is the acceleration of the business with the inflow of AffiDx profits, this alone, on a discounted cashflow basis could make a big difference to the valuation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57647413

Absolutely right RD, Singapore plan on ignoring it. It’s an interesting experiment, but I wouldn’t fancy it. The Beeb today is reporting that the delta variant results in 100% household transmission, so as I said, it’s pretty much guaranteed to reach everyone given enough time. If the vaccines reduce the death rates in line with normal flu then is that acceptable? Bear in mind long Covid. Bear in mind vaccines wear off. Bear in mind, high infection rates result in mutations. If it swirls without any control then at some point we’ll have a very serious problem again as we’re 6 months in and only half the population are fully vaccinated. Would we be ok for a new variant to start wiping out the population for over 6 months? They’re now appearing faster than vaccine development timescales. The r value could drop to way beneath 1, which would reduce the prevalence to enable proper monitoring including dvrg and the sh.tty stuff, with a simple, cheap, highly accurate AffiDx each day….