Member Info for PL75

I think this kicking is more than a bit harsh, but it’s been fuelled by conifer and since rolled over in to a wider malaise. The basic facts are that we’ve a great product, but expectations of something happening immediately haven’t materialised, there’s no sugar coating it. It’s an over reaction given that the time horizons for Covid continue to be extended as it keeps swirling around the globe. We were previously sat near highs comfortable with 5m and with hopes of up to 30m. We’ve now heard that we could access up to double the high end. Medusa have invested and are cracking on with the self test, once life settles this will be important as the EUAs around the world disappear. It’s a sickener to see 30% wiped in a matter of days but it’s now crystal clear where we are. Deals are needed and each one will help with a re-rate. Even the lowest volume of 5m for 12 months brings in 90m in profit. Expectations are now clearly very low, there’s not much if anything priced in especially given that AVA6k is around the corner. Despite PresAl’s attempt at being upbeat at the end of the presentation about prospects, he’s got to be frustrated that he’s been led a merry dance by the govt. I would hope now he’s watching the price and now very determined to press on elsewhere to restore value.

Doesn’t sound so bad when you put it like that. Don’t suppose you’ve got any shumpers and you’re available for presentations/ interviews?

It shows his naivety, he’s become so accustomed to trotting out the same catchphrases he’s failed to grasp that the market might pay attention to him. He’s not experienced a spotlight like this before and it shows, at times he’s shown a lot of disrespect for the PIs that have supported his business to reach the level it’s at.

Condor/falcon was utterly useless and it’s resulted in us needing to head to Europe and the govt heading to the local pig farm. The delta variant is completely dominant and the govts are taking positive samples every day yet we’re waiting to be able to confirm everything still works ok. It’s shambolic the way the govt are hanging out British biotech to dry, never mind not paying their bills and continuing to line the pockets of innova

They now have the partners they need and just as importantly - like or loathe the Covid test prospects at the minute - Covid has provided the cash to make this a possibility. It’s already been transformational, but there’s more to come as both sides of the business start to work their through a long list of candidates addressing markets worth billions.

Don’t think about passengers (although with the private testing that’s being put in place, it’s another avenue).

There are an awful lot on furlough so who knows what the current number is, but a quick google suggests BA have 42,000 staff with the majority in operational roles. They’ll want high quality testing to ensure that operations continue and that they’re not presenting a risk to the public in facing roles. That’s 15m tests a year for one organisation with daily testing. The airline industry is obviously one that will need to be cautious for years due to travelling constantly. It’s not difficult to see demand piling up. They’ll want the best of British as will others, as will airport staff etc etc

Procurement is another word worth highlighting. It’s looking like we’ll access the U.K. capacity with a margin of a quid for the testing that will remain for years to come for th use cases they’ve detailed. Our test is the best, why would the govt be supporting any other company ahead of us? They want as many of our tests being used to be protective of the population whilst recognising that unfortunately it won’t be enough in the short term so imports will still be needed to supplement

From reading the consultation document the govt want high quality tests in the U.K. once the legislation is passed in a couple of months. To achieve that they are clearly offering up the capacity they’re installing otherwise the capacity range that’s been quoted would be fixed. We heard today of other U.K. manufacturing with suitable CoGs. We’re already working with GAD. I’d add ODX to that as with the loaned govt equipment their costs will be cheap. So we’ll be in a position of being the best, with a competitive price and U.K. through and through. We won’t be directly supplying the govt but we knew that with the innova extension, however we will be part of their plans in ensuring that good quality tests are available. Essentially we’ll have access to subsidised U.K. capacity to go alongside the cheaper overseas capacity

It’s not true that companies for professional use by a HCP have a preferred supplier. Until now they’ve been given tests for free by the govt. When this ends they’ll be looking for the best test to protect their staff and business.

Agreed. Today’s earlier blow out will have hopefully cleared the bed wetters/froth and we now have a solid base as everything on that list comes to fruition. It’s looking good, capacity can be scaled, deals being done alongside direct sales to larger entities, interest from apac, avenues to fda, self test on the way, demand for years. There’s a growing realisation that this will be around for a long while and the best test will emerge as the winner. I found it good that he basically said they’re not bothered about a combined s/n test as Affidx is already the best. No need for further development costs.

He was certainly keen to answer that one. As is obvious, he answers as best he can with the information he has at the time. Sh.t happens basically

Interesting comment regarding the U.K. capacity. It aligns with the document shared yesterday in that the govt are putting in place a capability. Looks like we’re getting first dibs if we can take up to 30m a month once it’s in place

Confirmed the self test CE mark is progressing with Medusa, that was definitely our test, so at least one study has happened

The lower CoGs from overseas will help protect margins. The Indian variant isn’t dominant globally yet, so there’s some time to get this confirmed. As we know the govt are happy with Innova for now. The overseas capacity is great news, 1m a day is fantastic.

Bump. Worth a try… have a read and think longer term. Today is a first step of many, we’ve a good product and a global audience. The days of seemingly instant Covid gratification are gone, but that doesn’t mean there’s still not a huge opportunity out there. My zero expectations for today have been exceeded, we’ve just signed our first distribution deal. I’ll wait for many more. Hope you all have a lovely day

Neut, simply follow up with a PCR test. It’s cheaper to screen with LFDs regularly and confirm with a smaller number of PCR tests (leave it doze, we know you’re not a PCR fan). This will be hugely important in the winter with people mixing in greater numbers without a lockdown and with respiratory infections, colds and coughs making a comeback.

Indeed maltby. There should be zero expectations based on a scheduled investor meeting. I’m expecting a rinse and repeat, but have no concerns about that having read the long terms plans that involve a U.K. diagnostics industry that currently won’t be able to cope *for years to come*. As a market leading test, the cream will rise to the top. Same applies globally, with pressures on supply chains, the advantages of affimers come to the fore. All good, but this is a marathon not a sprint.

Ok, it’s more like an ultra marathon. Ok, it’s probably more like Eddie Izzard doing marathons back to back. Yeah…It’s taking a while.

As for bidstats the ODX deal was posted on there on a Sunday and the RNS followed on the Monday so it happens. I’ve checked, there’s no deal so don’t expect an RNS.

It’s not coincidental that the extension runs to the day before the new legislation is due to appear. They’re not procuring any more as they’re expecting to shift it across to the private sector. It’s been a phenomenally awful set of short sighted decisions. The cost of lockdowns has been chosen over the costs of decent quality tests.

I wasn’t joking about it being a repeat of the last one. For starters it hasn’t been that long. He can proudly talk of the registration enabling sales (not so proudly mentioning the humongous **** up that proceeded it of course). Other than that, if we’re stifled on the U.K. front due to the govt he can’t say much other that slow ongoing dialogue continues. If we’re stifled on the EU front as we’re stockpiling to see what the govt are doing and / or trying to compete in gaining additional capacity, there’s not much to say there either. Progress on any fronts will be put in an RNS so my expectations are zero for tomorrow, but I have huge expectations once these commercial bottlenecks are resolved.

Exactly gje, too many pieces of the puzzle fit perfectly once you’ve read that document. Given the innova extension, we can rule out being the non existent ‘sovereign test’. However, the ongoing demand described in the document for the multiple use cases suggests the substantial ongoing demand *for years* that we’ve all been expecting and waiting for. Unfortunately, it’s slow, so we’ll have to wait longer.

PS FFS all, please ignore the sea lion that trying to bury this. Mugs.