RE: The Telegraph.21 Oct 2018 18:20
Stokey: As things currently stand, I believe that it is possible / likely that the first commercial unit will be built, commissioned and operational by the end of Q3 2019, as stated in the RNS dated 28th September. Of course there is no guarantee that this target will stand firm, but that’s what we have to work with at the moment. Assuming that that happens, I would expect PHE to have been making preparations for the next units while the first one is in progress, so that the second and subsequent units should come off the production line in less time than the first one. Anyway, it’s probably a fair assumption that the first royalties would start being paid to PHE in early 2020, perhaps even towards the end of 2019.
It’s impossible to predict what the share price might do in the future, and I’m always reluctant to speculate on this. But I’m quite sure it won’t go in a straight line. It all depends on the market’s perception of the business potential and the level of risk associated with that, so the SP will undoubtedly move both up and down as that perception changes from time to time. I reckon that if it becomes clear and generally accepted that PHE has a unique viable process with the ability to produce lots of units over the next several years (there are still sceptics regarding this) then at that point I would expect the SP to increase significantly. That realisation could happen at any time as news of construction and/or contracts is released, but I would be surprised if anything very significant happens before the first unit is up and running.
Of course it has to be said that if it transpires that the 25tpd unit does not do what is expected of it, then we could expect the SP to plunge in the opposite direction.
Hope this helps.