Member Info for picax

What started the huge price rise in Feb was an analyst forecast update right? I think that priced in some of the company's current position but since then they've been moving strength to strength and the price has just slid in response. Might need another analyst telling the traders to buy to see this move, doesn't look like most people really read and calculate in the RNSs. The slide to today could be more jitters about gas suppliers going under despite Bobby telling the markets in no uncertain terms that they aren't affected in the slightest, but today specifically is probably people taking money out of ETFs and such as the whole market moves. Tiny volume still.

While this deal appears to be a complete steal without any additional context, I'm wondering if the timing isn't also a little suspicious. We are expecting EH results very soon as BBG said in podcasts and is well known, and before imminent results we just happen to strike a deal for a neighbouring tenement? BBG said that they were "tracking" the polymetallic halo to a potential ore body based around rare earths ... could they have been sniffing towards Munni Munni North with preliminary grades, or have found something that indicates with some geological wizardry some additional prospects that way?

That's Yu's illiquidity for you. Spread of 5 - 10% most days will put off most day and swing traders and so becomes pretty volatile just based on LTH movements, which often don't correlate to news strongly. Yu is in such a strong position and the market conditions are a godsend for them - their hedging is paying off and their competitors are suffering for playing fast and loose with flexible rates. And yet, even after getting a book from Ofgem that whacks up their revenues instantly and opens the possibility for more such similar news, we have seen a small bump before trading sideways in the same channel we've been in since April. With illiquid stocks if they start running they explode like was seen in Jan.

At least 2 major false dawns since we collapsed to 400, until someone shows me concrete news this is a nothingburger. Could be a big order filling or a short closing at which point the SP will return to form. If it is something material I'd love for someone to provide some evidence and then I can also grab a ticket on the hype train.

Trading in a tight downward channel since April! This share has been disconnected from valuation reality for a long time and we are just shuffling down the SP ladder due to traders without an LTH floor to support the SP at seemingly any price even after a couple of breakouts. We have been dropping by an average of 5.1p per week for over 6 months with pretty consistent linearity and the volume averages have been sliding too. Feels like a strong rerate could come anytime due to the lack of volume from 440 to 220, but barring that we will have to wait 42 weeks for the SP to hit literally zero.

The Ampower award is a huge deal, even this isn't as big a move as should be coming to price it in. Some Ofgem goodwill, may be followed by more, no problem integrating the customers instantly, huge boost to revenues. The share was already undervalued for a recently profitable business with all the upfront cost for digitisation behind them, no debt and stable. Hope this will materially rerate, no need for more news but always welcome

Yahoo Finance has listed an EBITDA of 156M and the same for MCap. EBITDA this year should be 40M with revenue 100M according to guidance. Considering those numbers, sentiment here is shocking and so far complete silence from DA and the BoD. Perhaps the market is right, smells kinda fishy.

I don't know everything about the state of play so please correct if I'm mistaken.
1) Hanc0ck is being developed ASAP, contracting and permitting for a road and the necessary equipment is first priority but then should start shipping DSO in 12 - 18m. Since it is so low capex, can get higher margins without a JV.
2) While that is going on, scoping work continues with drilling at EH. They have crazy high grades of Ag in a central deposit but are scoping around it hoping for a "polymetallic halo" which could be gamechanging in terms of proven resource. They already have visible sulphides and this sort of structure makes sense geologically (highly concentrated Ag should have a wider field of lower concentration)
3) On the last podcast Bill seemed excited about developing the three Mexico projects that all show significant promise but need to be scoped and investigated.
4) Brockman could be a monster in the making but need to be proved up, they have a Fortescue man onboard now and if they can show the resource could be a quick (2023 - 2024) JV opportunity - this resource could be on the same same level as Rio or Fortescue (who are both close neighbours - Rio drilled the formation (on their side of the license) that UFO have.

The top 3 could drop anytime really, EH is the big one that people think is imminent but could get lab results from Mexico too. The MCap is peanuts compared even to Hanc0ck's potential, nevermind the 5 other projects, but there is still plenty of risk - such as a placing that spiked me now 30% down. I think it will come good over the next few months though.

I lurk on the NCYT board but don't participate in the constant bickering. I thought you were a good advocate for the case based on fundamentals, so find the flagrant pumping here to be worthy of slating and has turned my opinion of you. As far as I can see your DMs are blocked but we've had no previous interactions on Twitter. So you can open that up and I'll happily declare myself in DMs.

This company seems to be on a positive trajectory but that doesn't mean it's immune to pump and dumps, so when I saw the tone and substance of your posts I chose not to invest here. I do my own research and make my own decisions, so if the SP stabilises I might invest here too. I tend to look at convictions based on portfolio percentage. Maybe you just took your capital out and left your profits, maybe you are the one living in the brick house or perhaps your name was honest and you're telling porkies. Can't really tell. I just think it's a bad look to be so bullish that you start singalongs and at the first opportunity you are off to other boards to pump there instead.

"Terrific Tuesday – 74p to 85p Inbound 02 Nov 2021 01:33
...
I’m allowing for the fact that Share Prices don’t go up in straight lines, I’m allowing for traders and bedwetters with their fingers on the sell button taking small gains but I’m predicting for a BIG blue day today. At least a 9p ADD today if not more and climbing this week towards that 74-85p range.
...
To get to peer average in one hit we would have to add +36% today from 54p. Not impossible, we would head the leader’s board. The valuation here is like a coiled spring, you really can’t hold it down much longer before we absolutely explode to new heights.

Either way, we are going onto that 74p to 85p range as minimum, watch this space
...
IMO for what its worth, in the Biotech space if they get it right, the valuation’s just skyrocket. With Valirx, I don’t think its just a case of getting right once, I think we have a high chance of 201, 301 and 401 ultimately securing licensing. Three times over, wouldn’t that be something…."

Less than 8 hours later ...

"Really Disappointed 02 Nov 2021 09:14
Well I'm not seeing the same as some of you that's for sure.

I can’t draw breath this morning regarding this deal, they have basically sold the Crown Jewels from under us to a US Start up.

A low back end deal worth potentially $61m so let’s call it £44m, imo a token arrangement."

One of three projects secures minimum payout on success of more than the MCap (with additional £20+M per oncology indication) and frees up more resources at VAL to push other projects. But who's to know, really, as there are a lot of unknowns still. That's where the faith and trust in Suzy should have come in, but maybe there were some porkies about that too.

You've disabled DMs on Twitter though mate ... or is there some sort of application process? From your last ramp on Twitter:

"I don't see how investors can go far wrong buying at a 51p £32m mcap, Any deal will dwarf that
Comes down to confidence in Conviction now"

Amusing considering your reasons for leaving are that you just don't know things, but you're right that any deal will dwarf the MCap and so will TheoremRX if it comes good at milestones. Your actions indicate a level of dishonesty at the very least with your belief in Suzy, and if a prominent poster is dishonest then it does materially affect board discussion. At this rate, fewer people will be joining in the next round of singalongs.

Porkster came here from NCYT where he ramped based on fundamentals. Here and now with his many other bio stock ramps he is ramping barefacedly on charting, talking about peer average and trading channels. Just scroll back on his twitter to mid-sept to look at how he talked about NCYT and you'll see the difference. I highly doubt he was was not very happy with "the recent Rns in terms of the route Val have taken", moreso that he was unhappy with the route that the chart has taken! Probably just blew through his stop loss, because the days of Porky talking about tree shakes and MM manipulation are long gone.

So to clarify - I was expecting a raise at some point but maybe early next year. I am just critical of the timing, not of the need. I expected that they had some runway and that we were entering a news rich period, so it would make sense to have this raise at 1.5 or even 2p which was well within reach by year end imo.

This obviously also doesn't change the fundamentals of the company and the whole company is materially undervalued based on Hanc0ck alone, nevermind the other projects. Mining is a capex intensive business - if UFO have to give a chunk of the pie to a larger developer or institutions in order to get running, that is completely expected and welcomed. It opens up higher profit margin routes with self-funding for EH or Brockman potentially. I am very bullish on this in the medium term and a ten bagger is at the low end of my valuation personally. As always GLA and DYOR

If we are to see something else transformative coming out soon, and they had cash runway left, not sure why they went for the raise now rather than after that following rise. So this also implies that we won't see anything new for a while. However, in reality getting institutions onboard takes time and negotiation - 10% MCap raise isn't peanuts - so probably has been in the works since the Hanc0ck release. So I agree that this might result in a trader tree shake - usually the other way round.

Obviously not the rerate I expected or wanted lol. I think the SP had legs and was finally on an upward path again after a little stalling, but getting spiked by a placing after the first substantative change from the general deprecation in 6 months isn't a positive move. I think this just knocks investor confidence and is a bad look. Have to hope for some more transformativr news from EH, Brockman or a JV to justify why they didn't let this run for a bit since they were funded for a decent while and had momentum.

I agree that the board need to communicate more. Especially DA's appointment and some welcome words would not have gone amiss, I reckon they are expected to onboard him with a lot of the details before he officially joins so he can have a running start. Simply a fresh face, a reiteration of the presentation up to date with a little emphasis and enthusiasm might have been all that is needed to revive the sentiment here.

To play devil's advocate, I think instead they are staying tight lipped until something big resolves itself which they are working on presently. Most of that will be getting institutions onboard, negotiating the DHSC dispute, and now pushing the CDTA approval

Since stabilising in the 1 - 1.2 range the spread has been tightening and should see something happen around midday tomorrow. I reckon it will continue the rerate up to 1.5, but can't be sure. I don't put too much truck in technical analysis, but if there are a lot of traders on this share now then that might be a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Frostbar, for my opinion it's not all that advanced. They are big enough to be now driven by the marketing, sales and legal teams rather than the design team, probably with a lot of people that don't play the games looking at product launch numbers and IP protection. They have been shooting themselves in the foot for the last few years after throwing a hail mary with AoS. WH+, primaris, codexes and such are designed to milk the whales, not provide a good experience to their loyal, invested fans. They will bleed their actual fanbase and not get them back, but its not about a takeover imo. Just bad business management.

Got to expect some pullback after the rise but the fundamentals are there and the drill results have started coming in after a long drought. More people onboarding also means that Bill is gearing up to start working on the resources. All very positive signs to a news rich period in the coming months.

I'm not quite understanding how a £30M Mcap company can be sitting on £1B revenue (large profit margin) at one of half a dozen sites that have potentially similar prospects. Do I just fundamentally not understand the mining sector? The capex and time spent maybe makes £1B resource look piddly to the big players? Just got to assume this if these numbers are making any sense. Or - they're not.

New CEO and what a welcome! A single line "see previous". Hope DA can change the tone of these RNSs around from borderline depressed.