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This is something I was a bit baffled by. If there are these exceptional grades (and have confirmed some are still there from the new UFO testing), why would anyone stop mining it? I don't know enough about the history of the other companies e.g. East Coast to know why they stopped, and why no one then reopened before UFO came along. Can anyone enlighten me?
LSE slow loading ads to move the post message button under my thumb. Hmm. Anyway, feels telling that the iron ore was put under a new company when there isn't a sniff of that happening with EH. I read this as Bill being fine with a buyout or JV of Hamersley if necessary, but is clearly full throttle on EH, getting into that silver ore body and finding the source of the PGM halo. There's a huge runway of great opportunities, just need to get some revenue up and running to push the other projects. UFO is sitting on so much value it just boggles the mind, compare to most miners that are sitting on one, maybe 2 resources and a lot of scoping work necessary to prove up new ones. UFO have the track all laid out and once we start to pick up speed there's no brakes.
This share trends down sharply until there is some positive news, seemingly regardless of market conditions. In fairness it's absolute ghost town on the PR front like the company are allergic to RNSs. Got to just hope that they eventually decide it's worth their time to copy paste something from their Twitter or that, God forbid, there is some DHSC resolution.
Felt like this should have rerated at least, with all of the macro signs pointing in Nova's direction. I couldn't see a rerate putting the value at lower than £4.50 where we were after the DHSC dispute announcement. My mistake was thinking that now with Omicron and rapid reversion back to PCR testing etc., that fundamentals would start to matter again. It appears that instead, and as usual, the majority of the volume is dictated by people only looking at "line go up" and "line go down" for their valuation process. As it stands, I wouldn't be surprised if this company went on to make more in free cash flow than their MCap.
New variant? Winter? EU lockdowns? PCR demand through the roof for at least 3 - 6 months? Dispute resolution steps taken at other companies? Lots of hiring? Moves being made in the US? New CEO? You must be joking right?
You can be a LTH without buying into the IPO. But I agree that it is the people buying the shares, the MMs have no interest in punishing specific stocks especially when the MCap is peanuts to them. The problem is that most of the shares are on Bourse where most people have no intention of holding them for even a week seemingly. Paper hands are due to a lack of communication and conviction by the company and the French predilection for cutting and running.
I'm surprised that there wasn't more reaction to the announcement but not complaining, got some time to top up. Maybe the market doesn't read into it like I do. The formation of a separate company to prove up the Hamersley resources allows for UFO to parcel and sell off part interest in their iron ore while retaining full PGM interests. It's a big move in terms of intent and flexibility and you would only go through the faff and paperwork if there were parties seriously interested in your iron ore - and who wouldn't be? It smells like a deal is seriously om the cards and I wouldn't be surprised if it was our Fortescue man shaking some hands.
It is frustrating that NCYT seem wiling to issue material announcements laissez-faire on twitter and keep up the dearth of RNSs. We still haven't heard a peep from the new guy and there have been no real attempts to assure shareholders. This is the main issue that causes the shareholder base to be mainly composed of traders and shorters. SP rises are driven by confidence rather than fundamentals, especially on AIM where the company can shaft shareholders so easily. Fundamentals can add to that confidence but even the most sound business can be horribly mismanaged from the viewpoint of shareholder interest.
I have no idea which way the day trading winds blow but as we have seen, the bottom can drop out of this share no matter the floor. Just hope that DA has been quietly working on the DHSC negotiation and it will come good soon.
What started the huge price rise in Feb was an analyst forecast update right? I think that priced in some of the company's current position but since then they've been moving strength to strength and the price has just slid in response. Might need another analyst telling the traders to buy to see this move, doesn't look like most people really read and calculate in the RNSs. The slide to today could be more jitters about gas suppliers going under despite Bobby telling the markets in no uncertain terms that they aren't affected in the slightest, but today specifically is probably people taking money out of ETFs and such as the whole market moves. Tiny volume still.
While this deal appears to be a complete steal without any additional context, I'm wondering if the timing isn't also a little suspicious. We are expecting EH results very soon as BBG said in podcasts and is well known, and before imminent results we just happen to strike a deal for a neighbouring tenement? BBG said that they were "tracking" the polymetallic halo to a potential ore body based around rare earths ... could they have been sniffing towards Munni Munni North with preliminary grades, or have found something that indicates with some geological wizardry some additional prospects that way?
That's Yu's illiquidity for you. Spread of 5 - 10% most days will put off most day and swing traders and so becomes pretty volatile just based on LTH movements, which often don't correlate to news strongly. Yu is in such a strong position and the market conditions are a godsend for them - their hedging is paying off and their competitors are suffering for playing fast and loose with flexible rates. And yet, even after getting a book from Ofgem that whacks up their revenues instantly and opens the possibility for more such similar news, we have seen a small bump before trading sideways in the same channel we've been in since April. With illiquid stocks if they start running they explode like was seen in Jan.
At least 2 major false dawns since we collapsed to 400, until someone shows me concrete news this is a nothingburger. Could be a big order filling or a short closing at which point the SP will return to form. If it is something material I'd love for someone to provide some evidence and then I can also grab a ticket on the hype train.
Trading in a tight downward channel since April! This share has been disconnected from valuation reality for a long time and we are just shuffling down the SP ladder due to traders without an LTH floor to support the SP at seemingly any price even after a couple of breakouts. We have been dropping by an average of 5.1p per week for over 6 months with pretty consistent linearity and the volume averages have been sliding too. Feels like a strong rerate could come anytime due to the lack of volume from 440 to 220, but barring that we will have to wait 42 weeks for the SP to hit literally zero.
The Ampower award is a huge deal, even this isn't as big a move as should be coming to price it in. Some Ofgem goodwill, may be followed by more, no problem integrating the customers instantly, huge boost to revenues. The share was already undervalued for a recently profitable business with all the upfront cost for digitisation behind them, no debt and stable. Hope this will materially rerate, no need for more news but always welcome
Yahoo Finance has listed an EBITDA of 156M and the same for MCap. EBITDA this year should be 40M with revenue 100M according to guidance. Considering those numbers, sentiment here is shocking and so far complete silence from DA and the BoD. Perhaps the market is right, smells kinda fishy.
I don't know everything about the state of play so please correct if I'm mistaken.
1) Hanc0ck is being developed ASAP, contracting and permitting for a road and the necessary equipment is first priority but then should start shipping DSO in 12 - 18m. Since it is so low capex, can get higher margins without a JV.
2) While that is going on, scoping work continues with drilling at EH. They have crazy high grades of Ag in a central deposit but are scoping around it hoping for a "polymetallic halo" which could be gamechanging in terms of proven resource. They already have visible sulphides and this sort of structure makes sense geologically (highly concentrated Ag should have a wider field of lower concentration)
3) On the last podcast Bill seemed excited about developing the three Mexico projects that all show significant promise but need to be scoped and investigated.
4) Brockman could be a monster in the making but need to be proved up, they have a Fortescue man onboard now and if they can show the resource could be a quick (2023 - 2024) JV opportunity - this resource could be on the same same level as Rio or Fortescue (who are both close neighbours - Rio drilled the formation (on their side of the license) that UFO have.
The top 3 could drop anytime really, EH is the big one that people think is imminent but could get lab results from Mexico too. The MCap is peanuts compared even to Hanc0ck's potential, nevermind the 5 other projects, but there is still plenty of risk - such as a placing that spiked me now 30% down. I think it will come good over the next few months though.
I lurk on the NCYT board but don't participate in the constant bickering. I thought you were a good advocate for the case based on fundamentals, so find the flagrant pumping here to be worthy of slating and has turned my opinion of you. As far as I can see your DMs are blocked but we've had no previous interactions on Twitter. So you can open that up and I'll happily declare myself in DMs.
This company seems to be on a positive trajectory but that doesn't mean it's immune to pump and dumps, so when I saw the tone and substance of your posts I chose not to invest here. I do my own research and make my own decisions, so if the SP stabilises I might invest here too. I tend to look at convictions based on portfolio percentage. Maybe you just took your capital out and left your profits, maybe you are the one living in the brick house or perhaps your name was honest and you're telling porkies. Can't really tell. I just think it's a bad look to be so bullish that you start singalongs and at the first opportunity you are off to other boards to pump there instead.
"Terrific Tuesday – 74p to 85p Inbound 02 Nov 2021 01:33
...
I’m allowing for the fact that Share Prices don’t go up in straight lines, I’m allowing for traders and bedwetters with their fingers on the sell button taking small gains but I’m predicting for a BIG blue day today. At least a 9p ADD today if not more and climbing this week towards that 74-85p range.
...
To get to peer average in one hit we would have to add +36% today from 54p. Not impossible, we would head the leader’s board. The valuation here is like a coiled spring, you really can’t hold it down much longer before we absolutely explode to new heights.
Either way, we are going onto that 74p to 85p range as minimum, watch this space
...
IMO for what its worth, in the Biotech space if they get it right, the valuation’s just skyrocket. With Valirx, I don’t think its just a case of getting right once, I think we have a high chance of 201, 301 and 401 ultimately securing licensing. Three times over, wouldn’t that be something…."
Less than 8 hours later ...
"Really Disappointed 02 Nov 2021 09:14
Well I'm not seeing the same as some of you that's for sure.
I can’t draw breath this morning regarding this deal, they have basically sold the Crown Jewels from under us to a US Start up.
A low back end deal worth potentially $61m so let’s call it £44m, imo a token arrangement."
One of three projects secures minimum payout on success of more than the MCap (with additional £20+M per oncology indication) and frees up more resources at VAL to push other projects. But who's to know, really, as there are a lot of unknowns still. That's where the faith and trust in Suzy should have come in, but maybe there were some porkies about that too.
You've disabled DMs on Twitter though mate ... or is there some sort of application process? From your last ramp on Twitter:
"I don't see how investors can go far wrong buying at a 51p £32m mcap, Any deal will dwarf that
Comes down to confidence in Conviction now"
Amusing considering your reasons for leaving are that you just don't know things, but you're right that any deal will dwarf the MCap and so will TheoremRX if it comes good at milestones. Your actions indicate a level of dishonesty at the very least with your belief in Suzy, and if a prominent poster is dishonest then it does materially affect board discussion. At this rate, fewer people will be joining in the next round of singalongs.
Porkster came here from NCYT where he ramped based on fundamentals. Here and now with his many other bio stock ramps he is ramping barefacedly on charting, talking about peer average and trading channels. Just scroll back on his twitter to mid-sept to look at how he talked about NCYT and you'll see the difference. I highly doubt he was was not very happy with "the recent Rns in terms of the route Val have taken", moreso that he was unhappy with the route that the chart has taken! Probably just blew through his stop loss, because the days of Porky talking about tree shakes and MM manipulation are long gone.