Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
This is the worst loss I have had in the stock market, an expensive lesson in overcommitting to a too-good-to-be-true scheme talked up by snake oil salesmen. I didn't have enough insight into the metcoal market to make the investment and never expected the price to drop so steeply, nor for the mine to be held hostage by the incompetence (or lack of care) by NS and MHW. I crunched the numbers on what the mine should have been producing based on unofficial SR announcements and got greedy, thinking I was somehow in the know. I kept dismissing the lack of transparency as prudent business practise for negotiation on the part of AW. It was probably blindingly obvious to outsiders that the whole thing stank, and even I smelled it at points but I was too deep in and just held my nose. Not financial advice, just my personal opinion: Never be afraid to walk away. Never trust anyone, only the proven numbers. Never invest in a sector you don't understand just because the numbers seem good. Never invest in AIM. For every GGP there are 100 BENs in these wastelands. And never look at BBs which are only here to skew your judgment with promises of secret information and get you emotionally and socially invested in a company, making it that much more difficult to pull out when you should.
Embarrassingly a lot of these lessons I should have already learned from past experience. There are others I've drawn from this complete debacle, but the list feels too long already. Good luck to anyone still believing in this. I am off to lick my wounds and might be back in the markets in a few years.
MAST seem to have a lifeline here to get revenue running but KIBO don't seem to be smart enough to let it run a bit before selling into the rise. They have been desperate for cash but with the high volume yesterday hopefully they've had their fill. If they stop selling then maybe this rips. Got to hope.
BEN's fundamental issue has been that even if everything went perfectly on the operations and sales sides, even if the metcoal price was high, the extra cost of trucking means NS have them by the balls. I thought that these issues would clear after train supply tightness due to drivers and getting them trained, and that NS would sort themselves out.
The other side that had them by the balls and wasted precious months when the metcoal price was high was mega, who's delays and sending of a broken HWM was probably the first nail in the coffin back at 108p.
There is still a glimmer of hope that we get a new CEO that can rectify things and that the metcoal price bounces, but this seems to be another painful lesson.
Proventure is an Indian company with plenty of information on their investments and Mr. Kona online.
http://proventureholdings.com/projects.php
You are spamming negativity for what reason?
Feels like the company should be valued much higher with a functional and profitable operation that still has room to scale and with pressures on metcoal only looking to drive it higher after recent volatility. But what do I know, I've been here all year and that was clearly the wrong choice!
For 2023 I get (euros) Selva 716k * 2 quarters of production + El Romeral 900k, accounting for exchange rate = £2M revenue this year and going forward £3M pa. From a DCF model where running costs are £1.5M I get £21M total value, around the current market cap. If Tesorillo or additional wells come online then of course there will be additional value created.
It doesn't make sense to me that a director, privy to the JV dealing, would loan £80k knowing it would bottle. Or that the BoD would approve of an extension without serious confirmation. Meanwhile it is quite plausible that an investor would miss a deadline needing to liquidate. Only thrown a bit in since I can be wrong but this share is already beaten half to death, even a 50/50 that it either comes through or goes bust is pretty good risk/reward imo since I'm expecting this to bag (at least) on payment.
RSI is near 20, ie oversold territory. Metcoal forecasts in India seem to be up. BC is operating at 2 HWMs ramping towards double shifts on both with the underground rigs. It should be at the stage where it is very cash generative, and it is trading barely above the IPO of 10p / share. I guess this is partially because the delays and breakdown killed investor confidence, and there was a big inflection where it was recovering but came back down beginning of October when there was a delay with the accounts. It doesn't seem warranted though. I have already taken more, perhaps unwisely. Anyone know of other reasons why the share price is at rock bottom?
I don't like it when someone admits to a mistake and they get attacked even more so. Unpleasant behaviour that only makes people less likely to do so, and increases bickering. You can just graciously accept that there was a bit of a goof and that they weren't doing it out of ill intention or they would have ignored it and kept going.
FWIW @fromage, not that I was aware of this until this piqued my interest and I looked it up, in the "notice of AGM" 27th Sept on the corporate documents section of the BC website, they do explicitly say that the shares are of nominal value and "an amount equal to approximately 12% of the total issued share capital ". That feels pretty crazy but I would guess that this isn't an indication that they are looking to do that, it just gives them governance flexibility to do so if they need to. Just prudent financial management that they can issue shares, and they chose a large amount because it gives them more control. If they are in profit and/or have a loan facility they would have no reason to.
Admittedly this is AIM and as Myles McNulty said a while ago this share is being priced as if it were fraudulent, given the cash they should be shrugging off every month even with a depressed metcoal price. The financing back end appears pretty dodgy also with MBU, Bluestar and Avani having not fingers, but whole fists in the pie. Feels a bit odd that Adam isn't shouting from the rooftops now that the two HWMs are working (double shifts?). All seems a bit quiet on the western front.
For gold these results look quite nice. They have some strongly mineralised zones that can lead to a mine plan with potentially exceptionally high average grade. Will take a while to come online but the resources increase the expected value of the stock right now.
Agreed. It really sounds like "trust me bro" even though we do ultimately have most of the relevant info. How much the upgrades are projected to cost, what their costs currently are, other factors that provide a complete picture and don't leave these glaring gaps. It shouldn't be this difficult to clarify everything that is happening at both sites, and every ambiguity leaves room for some nasty surprise down the road in investor's eyes.
I don't think that the share is suffering from poor fundamentals at all - Myles and BBN have done some great work putting together the value case from all the disparate references, so they are there - but if you look at sites like SWS or stockopedia, the ratings are terrible because there is barely any validated data widely available. The company needs to put more effort into generating investor confidence to differentiate themselves, as at the moment they look like every other "20 blokes with a hole in the ground" operation out there to the uninitiated.
I think a lot of people have been burned by overpromise and underdeliver strategy from AW. They made some great progress and the metcoal price was $450 / mt and it was all looking incredible, but then both of those things came crashing down this year. There needs to be an effort by the company to improve investor confidence since that is the main thing holding back the share.
imo this will recover if they keep up production, it feeds into the numbers, and they then report them properly. Might take a few months to demonstrate that though.
I think buybacks are the bottom of the list of good moves, yes they can be considered but especially for a small and high growth company like Shanta it will almost never make sense. They have a few promising growth opportunities they want to accelerate by using excess funds, and growing dividends to a respectable percentage will attract further investment. They should only buy back when the SP is unjustifiably low, and in a low mcap and low volume stock this will significantly raise the price and make the buying of stock a less attractive use of capital for the company. Dividends at least don't toy with the market by including themselves as a significant player in their own stock, which is something companies that typically do buybacks don't have to worry about as much.
I haven't been able to understand how Shanta has stayed stagnant (between 8.5 and 12.5p) since early 2022 when they have so significantly increased production and should now be quite profitable. I must be missing something because i was expecting 15 - 20p after Singida was confirmed producing with no issues. Even at the previous production levels I was thinking it was undervalued for the resources it has.
I have sold out significantly over the past year and only have a small holding to keep myself mentally invested in the company. I believe in the assets and used to believe in management, when BBG was running things. Of course my sells were at significant losses, so it gave me no joy to derisk. I will need to see a completely different tone and engagement from TW to recommit here.
There have been several concerning movements, little communication and no confidence or detail in the plans. I remain hopeful which is why I am still watching, but I don't think the past 12 months have been kind.
Ultimately it doesn't affect the business at all and so represents a buying opportunity if you are an LTH. Shanta will be shedding loads of profit at this gold price and into the future. I only expect the gold price to increase as the dollar weakens and recession kicks in. There is also West Kenya developing for future growth, so the company can clearly use their generated cash efficiently. In illiquid small caps the mood can swing the other way very quickly too, I expect this to be over 15p by year end personally.
I think my buy-in price was still a steal, based on what I know. Would be an unpleasant surprise if this is 1) a delay 2) because of unforeseen issues. But I don't really think either of those things are likely. This is a continued drop from 800 based on profit taking and fear, is what I expect.
No reason this should be sub-£10 on what Yu have accomplished recently. The energy crisis wiped out most of the small and midcap competition and they are nowhere near market saturation. Still plenty of growth left in the tank and aren't valued fairly on existing numbers anyway. I think the drop from 800 has been bad debt jitters but Yu have been remarkably prudent in that regard similar to their gas price hedging. I've been buying on the dips and in again today.