Member Info for picax

Nice little move just now, hopefully momentum to build into results. After Shanta I stay diversified but Serabi is one of my higher conviction positions and the last few weeks drop since the accidents have been a good time to buy if I had a top up.

I got burned by that. Was sitting on a decent profit but it got sold for peanuts. Genuine multibagger that they just stole from shareholders. No matter what it looks like this is AIM.

People who have been around more, what is the risk they don't get the Coringa license by end of 2026? How much damage would that do?

From what I can see they are doing very well on production and price compared to their valuation and Brazil is quite stable.

This has rocketed 18% today and there are no traders or fearmongers plaguing the board? I have returned to LSE after a year of staying out but this feels quite unusual.

It does feel like my extra buy in yesterday was a gift now. What a silly market.

The market seems quite nervy at the moment with all sectors but the miners moving down more than gold when they have yet to catch up to the gold price gains just doesn't make sense to me.

Now at a trailing P/E of 6 with outstanding production numbers for this year and set to improve. Even if gold drops back to $3,000 I feel like this is undervalued. Am I missing something?

Been a while guys, hello. Back in, missed a lot of the ride.

KIBO restructure isn't the issue, it is that they have been selling MAST share to keep the lights on and this suppresses any rise as they sell into it. This is at least what I think has been happening. As a result KIBO having liquidity means that the SP here can run for a bit.

Haven't really been watching this for a while but is the movement related to the Kibo EGM being carried allowing for the admission of shares and therefore an injection of working capital to the business? Can't also help think that LC retiring will improve their fortunes and by proxy Mast's. Always wondering if these spikes are not the start of a trend reversal instead of a flash in the pan every few months.

Think the interview was good, they have a supportive funding partner to build their current capacity of 30 MWh and are going to be doing decently after all the gensets at Pyebridge are up and running. Sunday Roasters said that a main market listing would be worth 2 - 3 mill on its own and in the interview PK said they had net asset value of 4 - 6 million. They don't seem to be going anywhere now they have the funding so market fears should be covered, and so the mcap of £600k seems a bit ridiculous. Kibo and another big seller are keeping the sp down but in terms of value for PIs it feels like it's time to make hay while the sun shines, but DYOR

This is the worst loss I have had in the stock market, an expensive lesson in overcommitting to a too-good-to-be-true scheme talked up by snake oil salesmen. I didn't have enough insight into the metcoal market to make the investment and never expected the price to drop so steeply, nor for the mine to be held hostage by the incompetence (or lack of care) by NS and MHW. I crunched the numbers on what the mine should have been producing based on unofficial SR announcements and got greedy, thinking I was somehow in the know. I kept dismissing the lack of transparency as prudent business practise for negotiation on the part of AW. It was probably blindingly obvious to outsiders that the whole thing stank, and even I smelled it at points but I was too deep in and just held my nose. Not financial advice, just my personal opinion: Never be afraid to walk away. Never trust anyone, only the proven numbers. Never invest in a sector you don't understand just because the numbers seem good. Never invest in AIM. For every GGP there are 100 BENs in these wastelands. And never look at BBs which are only here to skew your judgment with promises of secret information and get you emotionally and socially invested in a company, making it that much more difficult to pull out when you should.

Embarrassingly a lot of these lessons I should have already learned from past experience. There are others I've drawn from this complete debacle, but the list feels too long already. Good luck to anyone still believing in this. I am off to lick my wounds and might be back in the markets in a few years.

MAST seem to have a lifeline here to get revenue running but KIBO don't seem to be smart enough to let it run a bit before selling into the rise. They have been desperate for cash but with the high volume yesterday hopefully they've had their fill. If they stop selling then maybe this rips. Got to hope.

BEN's fundamental issue has been that even if everything went perfectly on the operations and sales sides, even if the metcoal price was high, the extra cost of trucking means NS have them by the balls. I thought that these issues would clear after train supply tightness due to drivers and getting them trained, and that NS would sort themselves out.

The other side that had them by the balls and wasted precious months when the metcoal price was high was mega, who's delays and sending of a broken HWM was probably the first nail in the coffin back at 108p.

There is still a glimmer of hope that we get a new CEO that can rectify things and that the metcoal price bounces, but this seems to be another painful lesson.

Proventure is an Indian company with plenty of information on their investments and Mr. Kona online.

http://proventureholdings.com/projects.php

You are spamming negativity for what reason?

Feels like the company should be valued much higher with a functional and profitable operation that still has room to scale and with pressures on metcoal only looking to drive it higher after recent volatility. But what do I know, I've been here all year and that was clearly the wrong choice!

For 2023 I get (euros) Selva 716k * 2 quarters of production + El Romeral 900k, accounting for exchange rate = £2M revenue this year and going forward £3M pa. From a DCF model where running costs are £1.5M I get £21M total value, around the current market cap. If Tesorillo or additional wells come online then of course there will be additional value created.

It doesn't make sense to me that a director, privy to the JV dealing, would loan £80k knowing it would bottle. Or that the BoD would approve of an extension without serious confirmation. Meanwhile it is quite plausible that an investor would miss a deadline needing to liquidate. Only thrown a bit in since I can be wrong but this share is already beaten half to death, even a 50/50 that it either comes through or goes bust is pretty good risk/reward imo since I'm expecting this to bag (at least) on payment.

RSI is near 20, ie oversold territory. Metcoal forecasts in India seem to be up. BC is operating at 2 HWMs ramping towards double shifts on both with the underground rigs. It should be at the stage where it is very cash generative, and it is trading barely above the IPO of 10p / share. I guess this is partially because the delays and breakdown killed investor confidence, and there was a big inflection where it was recovering but came back down beginning of October when there was a delay with the accounts. It doesn't seem warranted though. I have already taken more, perhaps unwisely. Anyone know of other reasons why the share price is at rock bottom?

I don't like it when someone admits to a mistake and they get attacked even more so. Unpleasant behaviour that only makes people less likely to do so, and increases bickering. You can just graciously accept that there was a bit of a goof and that they weren't doing it out of ill intention or they would have ignored it and kept going.

FWIW @fromage, not that I was aware of this until this piqued my interest and I looked it up, in the "notice of AGM" 27th Sept on the corporate documents section of the BC website, they do explicitly say that the shares are of nominal value and "an amount equal to approximately 12% of the total issued share capital ". That feels pretty crazy but I would guess that this isn't an indication that they are looking to do that, it just gives them governance flexibility to do so if they need to. Just prudent financial management that they can issue shares, and they chose a large amount because it gives them more control. If they are in profit and/or have a loan facility they would have no reason to.

Admittedly this is AIM and as Myles McNulty said a while ago this share is being priced as if it were fraudulent, given the cash they should be shrugging off every month even with a depressed metcoal price. The financing back end appears pretty dodgy also with MBU, Bluestar and Avani having not fingers, but whole fists in the pie. Feels a bit odd that Adam isn't shouting from the rooftops now that the two HWMs are working (double shifts?). All seems a bit quiet on the western front.