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penstock do you have any insight into the discrepancy between the 9 trains averaging around 2 / month (22kT) so far and the washed 40 kT highvolB+ / month that should be being shipped now that we have the HWM double shift and underground rig?
My last post was expecting 0.5, and that I wasn't expecting news soon, and here we are. That was about a month ago. I am giving a second chance to Rod after the placing shenanigans but am expecting news within the month or will be very disappointed.
I believe they are sitting on multiple announcements deeming them not material to investors. I am expecting EH to be dewatered and recommissioned, DSO on Hanc0ck ridges, and grouping the Munni Munni legacy drill results from the various parties that we have bought them from. We are overdue all of these.
Yu doesn't have a "moat", in the Buffett sense, as it has a small slice of the 1% of SME business that isn't covered by the Big 6. It isn't the leading player with name brand recognition that can be replicated. What it does have as a competitive edge is digitisation and full-package utility, including green energy options, smart meters and EV charging points in-house. From what I know it has the edge in these departments even over the big players, who are behind the curve on digitising. It is an attractive growth story where they have invested in scalable infrastructure while they were still small and are now winning clients from this investment.
Most critically and unlike many of their competitors, they were very conservative with their gas price hedging which as we know has blown up all the other providers that were "racing to the bottom" in terms of contract offerings. They are likely to reap the rewards of that prudency in coming years due to the clearing out of this competition, even if the books of their competitors have been given to different suppliers of last resort, those businesses are more likely to be looking to switch.
Even if Yu was another, bog standard utility supplier, which it isn't, it would still be undervalued on numbers and projections alone. Yu have a good shot at becoming a decently sized player in this space. That isn't even to talk about the increased profit from the gas price and the safety of utilities as a business in a looming recession. I think all the circumstantial factors are pointing towards it as an extremely undervalued play, I am just surprised the price has been supressed for so long.
I don't think there's any way of knowing who the original IPO holders were with shares possibly changing hands. I think it will be a $37.44 m dividend of 10p per share to all holders (as there are 374.4m shares) at a given date announced when the divi is announced, as is done with divis from other companies. He is simply saying that anyone who bought in at the IPO price of 10p per share and has held until the divi will be getting all of their funds back at that point (and keeping the shares to boot). Pretty good deal. He is not saying that other holders won't get the 10p divi as well.
Moved some more funds into BEN at the end of yesterday. Hope the hammering is over and we can see some recovery. Nice to see penstock back briefly, sad that he was driven away by trolls. Always has a lot of detailed info and the serious drop in board activity is directly related imo.
Events move pretty fast on the ground. We have heard from podcasts that the yellow iron is coming on site, that trains are continuing to be filled on schedule, and about inventory levels. None of this has been RNS'd, just came as a part of an interview on another topic. Might be useful to issue a quick update every month or two on key metrics like this, outside of significant events like delivery of HWMs. We don't need a full financial treatment, so could be quite easy.
This is the difference between fundamentals and sentiment. While there have been delays, the plan has been very simple and has progressed as expected, minus the occasional improvement that wasn't foreseen such as buying the equipment ourselves. Even the catastrophic flooding was remedied quickly and without much incident. Regardless of the SP, we are currently profitable, but will expand that profitability with the 2nd HWM and ramping up production. This isn't a junior miner story where they "think" and "are very confident" and "expect" about factors such as hitting high grade ore. There is no guesswork here. As with everything there is some exposure to outside factors but I regard them all as pretty low risk - things like the met coal price suddenly tanking 50%.
The plan, repeated several times by Wilson, is to pay the 10p divi to fully pay back the IPO funders. BEN is owned 78% by insiders / institutional investors. The incentives are aligned. My expectation is that even if it doesn't happen on time it isn't going to be shelved as a concept, and that if it hasn't happened by end of Q1 2023 it will be considered a missed goal. From what has been said it sounds like THE goal of the company, the point at which they have really made it a success. Wilson was hoping that it would be able to be announced for the 1 year anniversary of the IPO, but delays have pushed the timeline back.
The sentiment here may be on a downtrend among traders because the company isn't full of surprises and promises with which to speculate on "value inflection points", they are just getting on with it in a steady manner. Long term investors also don't have the full picture at first glance - if you have a look at simplywallst, stockopedia or other investment advising sites, the FY21 results show it as a loss-making, young company. They don't have good data on the company, and so investment isn't coming in from those sources to displace traders. Even though this is a pre-divi stock, the management have been clear their aim is dividends in the near term and not some 10 year growth trajectory to becoming the met coal king of the US. Ultimately it comes down to trust they will continue with their stated plan, but strong incentive alignment significantly backs that up, and that is what BEN has in spades.
My average is going to give me a 25% divi next year. I was looking for somewhere safe to ride out this coming crash and this seems like one of the places where regardless of the current SP we will be profitable and will eventually climb.
They already provide EV charging stations so spinning that out as a separate arm is a good move (what I expect that means), but I have had a look and can't find anything about Maps. I don't think the company needs "value inflection points" but it would be nice if there were further announcable developments.
Expecting a reversal up to 40p until we have the second HWM and then to break upwards 80p.
Even being pessimistic about the markets recently I am still shocked that such a monumental event would result in the SP dropping. Even 100 was an undervaluation when we were there as a 10% divi is quite the payout. BEN doesn't even need to get to 80kT to be a cash cow, it's there already. Now it is just nuts. My speculation is that there's more in the JS boat of having to deleverage with interest rates increasing and margin calls, just all short term market nonsense, and once they are full washed out we will see some spritely movements to reflect fundamentals valued by LTHs.
I thought it was going to 0.5 and still give that decent odds. A 4% move over a couple hours in this share isn't something to write home about. I am still waiting to see what Rod is bringing, although he made a good start getting on the podcast and showing some geology background. We could be due for news but I would be surprised if we got it soon. This share doesn't make steady upward progress otherwise.
It's been a bit of a wait for EH news, we had a main headframe tweet on July 14th: https://twitter.com/AlienMetals/status/1547499842506727426
And it seems to have been radio silence on that front since then. Are they in the process of dewatering and didn't tell anyone? Did they gain access and found it was scrubbed clean of silver? I've been looking forward to some EH news for a long time now, and expected it already. We have had astounding progress on the iron ore front recently but from EH and Munni Munni not a peep for a couple months now.
Sentiment is very volatile at the moment and in small caps often people are trading instead of looking at fundamentals. If you look at the chart, BEN was trading sideways in a range of 30 - 40p in Dec and Jan before breaking out. After the huge JS sell off, it is back to trading that exact range again. Does this make a lick of sense from a fundamentals perspective? Is the company in a similar position to where it was in January?
My view is that there are some traders buying it up from 30 and selling at 40, or trying to play games going to 32 or 38, and just keep doing that until there is an update that meaningfully dislodges it from this range or someone buys through the resistance at 40 unprompted. We will likely be waiting for the permit / scale up / divi RNS for that sort of move to be made though. The concentrated buying pressure needed will come from more attention to the stock and for chancers to stop putting limit sells at 40.
I've been trying to figure out how these capping measures are expected to affect Yu specifically, who I think aren't paying wholesale gas prices from their producers and are instead hedged against the price rise. Do they still get bankrolled by the government, or does this not affect them much? This is undoubtedly still good for them as their customers don't go bankrupt, but if they are going to get some kickback that would be really sweet.
I had a small holding here and topped up substantially today. The drop is extreme and with seemingly no basis. The resources are there and are going to be increasingly valuable in the near future. The SP is giving it away at this point - I guess some investors have walked away with substantial losses, but equally someone is going to come in and take advantage of their pessimism.
It's just market conditions and volatility. The fair value of the stock is already extremely disconnected from the SP so the movements won't reflect the progress that is happening on the ground. Apart from Mexico, this year has only seen blockbuster updates and fast progress across several projects, but we have trended down. We are still off the floor and a bit of pullback is expected after a big move. I'm expecting a further downtrend until we get funded and into production, with the occasional bounce as another insane update comes in to be quickly traded down. Those updates are likely to drop soon - we have outstanding news on EH reopening and I imagine there will be a big push towards evaluating Munni Munni and starting on drill targets there, among others. There is just no way to know when this is going to rocket though, so not worth trading off the highs but accumulating on the lows imo.
Almosy exactly what we all have been waiting for, although I guess like most I expected FMG instead. Movement at Hanc*ck on the financing side which could be shovel ready Q1 2023. Hard to tell the real value but our drift from 1p to half that on the back of great news should hopefully be reversed and the start of the rerate if the markst has woken up to UFOs potential.