Member Info for picax

Sometimes I wonder if I'm the only one on these BBs that isn't throwing hundreds of grand at microcap stocks. Just wondering how you get to be a multimillionaire while also being an absolute lunatic.

IOCA is 100% owned by UFO. They put the iron ore assets under a different banner so now an interested partner could do a J/V or take some ownership of just the iron ore assets (or buy them outright). It hasn't happened yet but with Anglo American and other mega players sniffing around the iron ore resources it's looking more and more likely.

Yeah we are at 10 trains total, I just didn't remember which months the previous 2 trains were in. We booked the 8 trains when we'd already received 6, so I think we're due 2 in Nov and 2 in Dec. We aren't completely gated by the trains, hope that we will be using this opportunity to sort out more storage capacity if we are close to hitting our capacity. Can't hurt.

Pretty happy with the rise over the last few days, hope it's a reversal of the slow bleed we've seen until now and we can get back into the 30s before Halloween. That will be a treat.

These were my thoughts too Turbo. A lot of movements that haven't quite materialised yet but the dozens of small steps and contracts needed to get to shovel ready Q1 2023 are being worked on pretty fast. We could have gamechanging announcements from negotiations on Brockman and Vivash. The placing was also raising funds for additional drills on Munni Munni so we should expect that beast to be awakened in a few months when the results come back tying together the old drill results.

This isn't the type of RNS to get people jumping off their couches but at the same time is a good indicator that we are progressing fast with a simple game plan at IOCA. Sell-off is unwarranted.

4 in August, 2 in Sept and 2 in October so far. Adam was expecting one or two more in Sept so it is surprising that we are almost at the end of October and have seen only 2 trains since the last podcast. However he also said that Norfolk Southern is keen on sending the same train back and forth, so I am looking to see that train turned around and sent right back to us at least a couple more times in the next couple weeks to take some of the inventory. There is also the ramp up transition between BEN booking a train here and there based on inventory and being scheduled for a fixed number a month, be that 4 or more. That will likely require some logistic rearrangement on the part of NS that might take time to filter through depending on their capacity.

However this is likely also a slower period for mining for the company. There is the transition over from the hired equipment to commissioning and training employees (not an external company) on our own equipment. They also need to build the benches for the HWM to mine. I think we need to give a bit more time for the kinks to sort themselves out before thinking that we are being let down. The 2nd HWM is out of BEN's control as are the trains, so there have always been caveats on the expectations of them arriving.

It's more about attitude and tone Chris2

Anyway, I don't know if I've missed some updates but there appear to be a lot of logistics sorted and revealed in this RNS. All relatively small but all necessary and amounting to a fair amount of work.

Would be very nice to have a free carry on Brockman while someone like Fortescue develops it and gives us revenue to pursue Munni Munni and EH. These deals behind the scenes could be make or break for the acceleration we'll see.

Would like an EH update too though.

Have a go searching for Yu on stock o pedia, I think you'll like what you see.

Kibo's 61% stake in Mast is now worth 20% more than Kibo's own MCap? I don't know enough about this share but surely the rest of the company isn't worth -£1.3 M. Will have to do some research and get back to you over here.

I also put in for a portfolio assessment for some mining stocks I am interested in, and came back with pretty poor results overall. I guess most stocks are rated low because then you have the curiosity to subscribe for which are recommended at the top.

4 - Rio Tinto
5 - Mkango
6 - Shanta, Atalaya
7 - Alien
no rating - Xtract

Shanta has "small mines" which is outdated as they have expanded their JORC considerably and are opening up a new site. Otherwise as expected.

Looking forward to an update if and when we get one.

Traders operate in small caps and try to manipulate the sp. Not all stocks and not all the time, but I think since the JS fiasco we've seen a lot of churn from small traders speculating and exiting. Since I'm not investing enough to move the needle I am happy to take advantage of this price action to accumulate.

I don't really believe in this chart wizardry but since other people do I have at least familiarised myself with it. Today we bounced off a pre-rise support of 23.3 and have an RSI of 27, the lowest it has ever been aside from the JS sell-off. Nobody here needs telling that this is heavily oversold but from a charting perspective I also expect this to reverse trend very soon.

Thanks for the response penstock, it looks that we have a huge backlog and Adam did say that "the trains come like buses" in the most recent podcast, "we have seen 3 or 4 trains arrive at once", and that the trains are getting more regular as we build up towards 1 mT / year (which we are on target for achieving beginning of next year). My impression was that this is just a lull where the brave are rewarded by increasingly ridiculous SPs driven by lack of news flow and macro trends.

penstock do you have any insight into the discrepancy between the 9 trains averaging around 2 / month (22kT) so far and the washed 40 kT highvolB+ / month that should be being shipped now that we have the HWM double shift and underground rig?

A quick but steady rise over the last few days is quite a fine thing. Not close to approaching fair value yet - would like to see 400, but realistically think we'll hit 300 and then 340 and retrace each time.

My last post was expecting 0.5, and that I wasn't expecting news soon, and here we are. That was about a month ago. I am giving a second chance to Rod after the placing shenanigans but am expecting news within the month or will be very disappointed.

I believe they are sitting on multiple announcements deeming them not material to investors. I am expecting EH to be dewatered and recommissioned, DSO on Hanc0ck ridges, and grouping the Munni Munni legacy drill results from the various parties that we have bought them from. We are overdue all of these.

Yu doesn't have a "moat", in the Buffett sense, as it has a small slice of the 1% of SME business that isn't covered by the Big 6. It isn't the leading player with name brand recognition that can be replicated. What it does have as a competitive edge is digitisation and full-package utility, including green energy options, smart meters and EV charging points in-house. From what I know it has the edge in these departments even over the big players, who are behind the curve on digitising. It is an attractive growth story where they have invested in scalable infrastructure while they were still small and are now winning clients from this investment.

Most critically and unlike many of their competitors, they were very conservative with their gas price hedging which as we know has blown up all the other providers that were "racing to the bottom" in terms of contract offerings. They are likely to reap the rewards of that prudency in coming years due to the clearing out of this competition, even if the books of their competitors have been given to different suppliers of last resort, those businesses are more likely to be looking to switch.

Even if Yu was another, bog standard utility supplier, which it isn't, it would still be undervalued on numbers and projections alone. Yu have a good shot at becoming a decently sized player in this space. That isn't even to talk about the increased profit from the gas price and the safety of utilities as a business in a looming recession. I think all the circumstantial factors are pointing towards it as an extremely undervalued play, I am just surprised the price has been supressed for so long.

I don't think there's any way of knowing who the original IPO holders were with shares possibly changing hands. I think it will be a $37.44 m dividend of 10p per share to all holders (as there are 374.4m shares) at a given date announced when the divi is announced, as is done with divis from other companies. He is simply saying that anyone who bought in at the IPO price of 10p per share and has held until the divi will be getting all of their funds back at that point (and keeping the shares to boot). Pretty good deal. He is not saying that other holders won't get the 10p divi as well.

Moved some more funds into BEN at the end of yesterday. Hope the hammering is over and we can see some recovery. Nice to see penstock back briefly, sad that he was driven away by trolls. Always has a lot of detailed info and the serious drop in board activity is directly related imo.

Events move pretty fast on the ground. We have heard from podcasts that the yellow iron is coming on site, that trains are continuing to be filled on schedule, and about inventory levels. None of this has been RNS'd, just came as a part of an interview on another topic. Might be useful to issue a quick update every month or two on key metrics like this, outside of significant events like delivery of HWMs. We don't need a full financial treatment, so could be quite easy.

This is the difference between fundamentals and sentiment. While there have been delays, the plan has been very simple and has progressed as expected, minus the occasional improvement that wasn't foreseen such as buying the equipment ourselves. Even the catastrophic flooding was remedied quickly and without much incident. Regardless of the SP, we are currently profitable, but will expand that profitability with the 2nd HWM and ramping up production. This isn't a junior miner story where they "think" and "are very confident" and "expect" about factors such as hitting high grade ore. There is no guesswork here. As with everything there is some exposure to outside factors but I regard them all as pretty low risk - things like the met coal price suddenly tanking 50%.

The plan, repeated several times by Wilson, is to pay the 10p divi to fully pay back the IPO funders. BEN is owned 78% by insiders / institutional investors. The incentives are aligned. My expectation is that even if it doesn't happen on time it isn't going to be shelved as a concept, and that if it hasn't happened by end of Q1 2023 it will be considered a missed goal. From what has been said it sounds like THE goal of the company, the point at which they have really made it a success. Wilson was hoping that it would be able to be announced for the 1 year anniversary of the IPO, but delays have pushed the timeline back.

The sentiment here may be on a downtrend among traders because the company isn't full of surprises and promises with which to speculate on "value inflection points", they are just getting on with it in a steady manner. Long term investors also don't have the full picture at first glance - if you have a look at simplywallst, stockopedia or other investment advising sites, the FY21 results show it as a loss-making, young company. They don't have good data on the company, and so investment isn't coming in from those sources to displace traders. Even though this is a pre-divi stock, the management have been clear their aim is dividends in the near term and not some 10 year growth trajectory to becoming the met coal king of the US. Ultimately it comes down to trust they will continue with their stated plan, but strong incentive alignment significantly backs that up, and that is what BEN has in spades.

My average is going to give me a 25% divi next year. I was looking for somewhere safe to ride out this coming crash and this seems like one of the places where regardless of the current SP we will be profitable and will eventually climb.