Member Info for picax

The Sunday Roast interview seemed to contain a lot of material information that should be released via RNS. They confirmed they are up to full production of the HWM, that they still have a profit margin even at a lower metcoal spot price, and other things. The podcast seemed entirely positive and removed a lot of doubts, especially with the serious price drop. Not sure why the drop continues, I couldn't tell anything in the podcast that rang alarm bells.

Bought in yesterday because of the eyewatering value of the Songwe deposit and close to finishing approval process, which is quite likely and a value inflection point (in my opinion). Unfortunately this means a 20 - 40% drop from these levels because I'm invested now. Apologies for the inconvenience.

The financials are definitely an issue and hope they get released soon to legitimize the enterprise. It sounds like once we get those it will significantly improve investor confidence and spur the SP up, which is a significant incentive for the company to put what they've been telling us on paper. It does feel like that both shouldn't be too hard and is expected around now by most AIM company standards.

We are expecting the HWM news, permits and trading updates in due course. I expect the fundamentals to shine through eventually.

I haven't been keeping up - Dartron, why don't you believe in the company? Are there some red flags for you?

Met coal dropping puts a damper on things obviously but as lony as BEN remains profitable I can see it being a temporary dip. JS is a bigger mover of the SP and is also temporary. I can't call the bottom but this seems like a rare bargain at this forward P/E if held over the next 3 months +.

So it was just a big move in SP by JS deleveraging that was compounded by a big short position against him / more shorters / more stop losses / more deleveraging by other margin calls. Plausible, and might damage confidence in the near term with the excessive volatility, despite no effect on the underlying business.

So we've had a couple of days of volume at 25 - 35x the average - truly a ridiculous amount - and the John Story and MBU Capital theories seem to be a bit thin at this point. This volume is more than JS has and MBU bought more shares. The company issued a prompt RNS that they don't know the cause of the drop early yesterday and director buy of a sizeable chunk today. All this data I just took from skimming this forum and the RNSs. So anyone have any other theories as to why this has collapsed?

Today a little over 1% of the outstanding shares in BEN traded. 38x average trading volume of around 1 million shares / day. Seemingly based off technicals and metcoal sentiment? I'll take it. Nuts.

Futures markets are saying that steel demand is going to decrease and so smelting coal also. The coal price dropping will cut into profits but the profit margin seems to be sizable with how cheap it is for BEN to extract. Since they are expanding and will have extra tonnage to offload, this may even benefit them as they have lower opex than their competitors and will still be able to supply at depressed prices. Unfortunately the price might be responding to these transient concerns instead of looking at the pure profitability of the business. Even against broader market headwinds it's hard to argue with the numbers they're putting out.

New to BEN, did some basic calculations about the expected return and got a forward P/E of around 7 even without additional capacity. Surprised to see the drop recently for a company that still seems significantly undervalued. I imagine the market is cautious of a new company in this climate and is waiting on dividend announcements. Seems fairly safe with exposure to raw materials needed for Biden's infrastructure push, in the US, but who's to say.

For me it increases the chance of a material RNS early this week but only a little, most likely just advertising.

Still amazed we are paying under £1500 / km^2 for an area directly leading from a proven high-grade resource geologically. It's not a high priority to develop but I think in a few years when our DSO is shipping for >£10M/yr, people looking at acquisition history of the company will be rubbing their eyes in disbelief.

I haven't gone through the pain a lot of people on this board have but I sold out a few months ago at a pretty significant loss for my portfolio. Just popped in to offer commiserations to you all. For over a year I was repeatedly shocked at how incompetently NCYT has been run, largely from the perspectives of communication and strategy. There were many things that couldn't be helped, with the pandemic and the DHSC, but the thing that really killed any hope I had was the disregard the BoD seemed to have for shareholders. So many things communicated not at all, through twitter or just incompetently. Without this sabotage I think you would all be sitting on multiples of the current SP and IIs would be more persuaded to onboard. With that I wish you all the best of luck, I really do hope this comes back for the LTHs.

I think it's just PIs trading back now that it looks like the rise is over. Waiting for FY results announcement which will drop sometime before 26th August, I imagine sooner rather than later tbh.

What gives you that impression?

@smiller I am not expecting a pull back because the SP was artificially depressed due to iron ore / growth stock sentiment in the general market, low daily volume and a lack of "progress" RNSs (we've had plenty of exciting drill results and Mexico reopening etc. but nothing progressing existing projects towards shovel ready). Those factors have all changed. This was severely mispriced even at 1p on value and we should see sentiment for the sector and juniors returning too.

An excellent update on the back of the Vivash Gorge release. As I've said before the results that Bill has produced left me confused as to why we didn't have more interest and J/V offers already, so it significantly derisks the investment to know there are negotiations going on and they just take more time than I expected, with multiple offers and funding considerations. I've added and I expect this to rocket.

A good indicator that the exCEOs lack of integrity might go deeper at the company. They need to release bad news but it smells like a coverup. They must be aware that this was their last chance to return some investor confidence.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/time-consider-buying-y-group-071441758.html

This article is a hatchet job. Can anyone give me a source for this "punchline" at the end that Yu is "is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years"? It does start by saying Yu is cheap by industry standards (1/4 of the average P/E for the sector), and is now profitable. Just torpedoes the investment case with no substantiation later. So strange.

Thanks for the discussion everyone. I am aware that in-the-ground resources are valued at a staggering discount as an industry standard and that the price is depressed further by most people waiting to jump in when they hear that J/V is on the cards or drilling is starting. I guess it's quite rare that a junior with no operations is sitting on 3 projects worth literally billions each, so maybe there is an upper limit to what people are willing to assign to proven resources. Applying the discount our resources are valued at £700m which is less than half what I value Hanc0ck at alone.

I am also confused as to why we don't have a deal yet, but it might be the resources need to be expanded before we are enticing enough to JV. This is likely the case for Hanc0ck. We don't know enough about the PGMs at Munni Munni, so I can see that too. EH is the baffling one for me - the grades there are just monstrous. As people have said after the bonanza RNS, we could probably just take an excavator out ourselves. I was listening to Garrett Goggin on Stansberry Research bragging about how MAG Silver has 600 g/t resource, and that does seem to be quite high for the industry standard - just putting our 8000 g/t in perspective. Maybe it just takes more than 4 months for us to get the ball rolling there with a J/V, so that is an optimistic resolution to the conundrum on that side at least.