Member Info for picax

It's times like this when I remember the Keynes quote: "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." I can ride this out but I'd have preferred not to with foresight. Buying in now (or in another 3 months when the SP might be half of this) would have been much more pleasant. Alas it is impossible to know the future. I think wiser investors than me usually stay out of pre-revenue junior miners and try to get in when they are starting to be cash generative. Hope that I can stay solvent longer enough to see an EH and/or Munni Munni update.

Just popping my head back in here for a second. Finally fully dipped out of this in April when the SP was 167. I took a big hit, but nothing compared to some who have kept the faith here. I have looked at this board from time to time to just see if there was any hope, and whether there was going to be any floor. NCYT are now sitting at an MCap of under half their free cash, which I thought could happen - when I was invested here I couldn't believe the level of incompetence, and I see that reflected in the sp. Glad that DA is gone - unbelievably bad. If they manage to appoint someone with some gumption and a plan then I might consider coming back. The only bunch that are worse than NCYT are the DHSC, so I have always given decent odds for them to win the lawsuits, but still don't see it happening any time soon. If it does I hope to see NCYT flush with cash, a payday for the LTHs and going to the market to buy out some complementary IP. GLA, maybe see you sometime next year.

Shame that we tanked from what looked like seller finally being out with a sudden finishing market dump, and then a quick recovery from the MBU charge over shares moment. I don't think the SP is connected at all to the fundamental value - at 280/t and 22 kT/month, which we are at currently, you are already looking at £62M revenue / year. With industry average P/E of 4, the SP should already be at 66p. Overheads and run cost have to be removed, but we are also looking at scaling up quickly to at least double, and perhaps 4x, the current output. I'm hopeful for a return to the 30 - 40p range soon in expectation of HWM and train news.

I'm new to this share, could I just ask where the £216m is coming from and how "locked in" it is? I've heard that they are expecting it Q1 / H1 '23 but I haven't found any mention of an investor.

I think BEN has been the victim of it's own success - was sold down by JS in a firesale to cover a margin call (speculation, but it makes sense), and likely other people are liquidating for similar reasons as various short positions are probably being wound up and leverage in general gets tightened. BEN is held mostly by large institutions so if one wants to get out it can have this drag on the SP for a long time. However, these market mechanics don't affect the underlying business in any way. So someone could know something but equally, they might not. Not sure what there would be to know - if anyone can think of risks that BEN might be exposed to, I'd be interested to know.

My impression was that Amigo was loss making and with doorstep lending legal challenges that forecast it being materially unprofitable. So the sell down affected the company ability to raise funds and possible loan agreements. If BEN were trading at 1p it wouldn't affect their business at all.

I don't see why any company in their right minds would sell off a huge chunk, or all of a profitable company and get pennies on the dollar for it due to market forces. If they diversify their holding to other IIs in huge block sales it won't tank the SP either. But my bigger confusion is how this affects BEN on a day to day basis - if they're just mining and making profit, eventually the SP will correct upwards regardless of how many people are selling for peanuts. Is it possible that MBU / Bluestar just wind the company up, or something? I didn't think they had any control over the running of the company aside from AGMs.

I'm not sure what negative effect this will have tbh, can you explain? If the default occurs and shares are transferred, now Bluestar owns most of the company and that's it? The company will keep going as normal I would imagine.

The silver price being in the stinker is probably drawing attention off EH and the dewatering efforts in favour of ramping up the practical elements of IOCA and Hanc0ck. I wouldn't be surprised if Rod put it on hold entirely and took whatever people were working on it and put them to task on Munni Munni sampling / drills, on sorting out permits and shipping agreements, on all the hundred and one things that need to be done (and put into a plan for AAL beforehand).

I wouldn't be surprised if Rod's focus was first on iron ore just as a means to an end, but his main source of interest is the PGMs at Munni Munni and he is tasking Bill with getting together drill targets and collecting the JORC2004 resources into a mineral map for proving up the investment case. I don't know why AAL would get involved with our iron ore if it weren't for the promise of PGMs further down the road. I just don't get the impression that Hanc0ck is that tasty a proposition in the scheme of the megamines that are around for iron ore - nice to be sure, but for AAL probably not worth getting out of bed for. Our resource is 10.4 Mt inferred and they mine 60+ Mt per year. I think we're still waiting for drill results to upgrade to indicated and to expand the resource estimate from May?! Some of these results are taking their time.

Best news we could have hoped for if Artemis needed the cash. It was either the BoD hoovering them up or cratering the SP. The latter would be a lose-lose for everyone involved including Artemis as those sells would take weeks to work through at current volumes, and probably drop the SP further than 0.35.

Agreed penstock, I reckon NS not allocating us enough trains is down to having an operator shortage and switching around logistics for now, seeing as we're at an irregular number and they can't keep our train waiting around. Booking trains at random intervals must be a pain for them to organise. So if we get into a healthy surplus and they can start to shuttle that train back and forth we're looking much better, and will hopefully get a regular service from then on.

The underground are also HiVolA I thought, so a better grade commanding a better price. Metcoal increasing too. Everything is looking good for 2023 imo, BEN making a lot of progress and advancing wherever possible.

Crazy day indeed, a little worrying but since the 0.36p megablock of shares didn't even go onto the float I guess it was just a transfer. Cannot imagine it was based on anything fundamental. I keep banging on about this but it bears repeating until it happens - we are waiting for EH results. The IOCA updates are all dandy, but we need EH to be resolved one way or the other.

The SP has now bounced back so can someone explain what just happened? The 0.35 was the last of a huge sell order going through to finish up the trade that has been working through for the last month or so, or did all 143m sell at 0.35 at the same time in like 5 minutes?

Pretty good update overall, this is a good time to upgrade the wash plant and interesting coal seam info, but I was surprised at that. The third HWM, "their" HWM, that is to be sold, where is it and why are they going to sell it? I guess they prefer to underground mine instead of having a third overground operational, because it was only going to be used as backup anyway? Maybe would be a good move.

I am expecting EH and Munni Munni news before Christmas - that the mine has been dewatered / looked around, and grading map of Munni Munni with the new drills and surface sampling, and integrated old JORC2004 drills across the tenement (previously owned by 3 different companies).

:)

You can see the tone shift from BBG to RM clear as day, as well as the shift in focus and strategy. BBG wasn't talking in that much detail about selling Brockman or J/Ving it at generous rates, the details of the developing mining at Hanc0ck weren't mentioned that much or being worked on, but we did get very detailed and interesting drill hole results with plenty of geological insights. Talking as if we can explore, mine and juggle 4+ major projects. That has flipped for RM. He is laser focused on developing Hanc0ck and starting to build revenue with the express aim to use this free cash flow to explore and unlock value in Munni Munni where we could be mining something more fitting the name "Alien Metals". Metals that with a strange, almost supernatural shine to them.

Like RM I have always been mostly interested in EH, and then perhaps Munni Munni, and see the iron ore as a means to that end. I am very bullish on silver and PGMs in the long term, while iron demand might drop significantly (even for decades) if the Chinese housing bubble finally finishes popping. If the iron ore is easier, then we can work on that in the short term, but I don't see what UFO has at Hanc0ck as being mindblowing. We have the Sirius extension that just clips into our tenement for the 10 Mt JORC resource and we have a ton of ridges that give much more spotty results as far as I can tell. Brockman is almost completely untested.

I would like to see an improvement in shareholder communication with regards to EH. I don't think it's acceptable that we have been left hanging for months on such a significant component of the company value. I have never put any stock in this "motherlode" aspersion that has been cast by BBG - it would of course be wonderful if we found something like that, but the intercepts we have are compelling enough for me. The radio silence on that front, and Rod's seeming lack of interest in EH (especially compared to Munni Munni), gives me the impression that something nasty has been discovered that they are keeping under wraps. That is by far the biggest red flag for me.

I agree beardozer, timing is everything - I was just outlining my strategy, but the implementation requires timing. Just to say I'm not a "paper loss" sort of investor, and I will sell some shares if I think it is overpriced. I first bought a small amount at 70p and now my average is 32p. The volumes I've bought have gone up steadily.

I see averaging down as accumulating - its all about confidence in the company for me. You need to know what you're buying, and there are only so many hours in the day to research stocks. I try to stay a little diversified and I've found that I can reasonably keep up with 5 - 10 companies at a time, even if I'm not invested in all of them based on the price and news flow. I have been expecting a change of fortune in BEN for months now, I didn't expect the sell of to be so persistent. We'll get it when we get it, it hasn't changed the fundamentals for me so I'm happy to hold until they do.

The disconnect between the SP and the value of the stock is what gets value investors in the door, and if the SP keeps dropping but the intrinsic value stays the same I would expect them to keep topping up. When I balance my portfolio I compare each stock's SP with my confidence in that stock and adjust them accordingly - if one has overperformed compared to my expectations I will top slice and if one is doing badly, but I have no reason to adjust my expectations for their profitability, I will top up. I will even sell a stock that is doing badly to top up on another stock that is doing badly if my confidence in them changes. Others may top up when they think there is some movement in the stock, and each to their own. But since BEN has been sliding ever since the big JS dump, where I got involved, I have only accumulated. *sigh*

Even if it's uncomfortable because there's a certain amount of anxiety, I think this is where profits are made. If the true value of the company is 150p per share, as an example, and I'm able to buy for 50p, that's great. 30p, even better. 25p ... madness. And on it goes. I expect the SP to reflect the true value around March if everything keeps on track and we get the 2nd HWM and more trains this month, and then everything between here and the true value is profit. I expect to receive a 10p dividend next year, probably at the start of Q3, and if it is a 10% dividend that's already great, at 100p SP. Mining sector 15 year average divi is 2.5%. The point we're at now, that divi is 40%.

By punters you mean traders and by rampers you mean LTHs right? I don't think this points to anything being wrong, just that there was a pump and dump ending earlier in the summer which has depressed the SP since. Traders will come and go based on expected news flow and investors will accumulate as long as they believe in the fundamental value. When I start to be alarmed is when LTHs are getting upset by how the company is treating them or how the value proposition is going. I don't see that much around here though.

The permit news a month ago was expected by the market and was delayed way too long, but from when they got the permit to already moving mining to it in 1 month seems not too shabby and is new information. The bench for the 2nd HWM (and therefore the arrival of it) has been said to be completed very soon, and given the timeline we know for creating the space for the 1st (and that they've already been working on it) it seems reasonable to expect that in a couple weeks.

I quite like the podcasts as I have a long commute, and it gives more of an honest, personal feel to the information, but I think they would benefit from going more mainstream with their publicity too. I like the investormeetcompany platform for AGMs and results presentations, maybe an interview with Proactive Investors would be good too.