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Crazy day indeed, a little worrying but since the 0.36p megablock of shares didn't even go onto the float I guess it was just a transfer. Cannot imagine it was based on anything fundamental. I keep banging on about this but it bears repeating until it happens - we are waiting for EH results. The IOCA updates are all dandy, but we need EH to be resolved one way or the other.
The SP has now bounced back so can someone explain what just happened? The 0.35 was the last of a huge sell order going through to finish up the trade that has been working through for the last month or so, or did all 143m sell at 0.35 at the same time in like 5 minutes?
Pretty good update overall, this is a good time to upgrade the wash plant and interesting coal seam info, but I was surprised at that. The third HWM, "their" HWM, that is to be sold, where is it and why are they going to sell it? I guess they prefer to underground mine instead of having a third overground operational, because it was only going to be used as backup anyway? Maybe would be a good move.
I am expecting EH and Munni Munni news before Christmas - that the mine has been dewatered / looked around, and grading map of Munni Munni with the new drills and surface sampling, and integrated old JORC2004 drills across the tenement (previously owned by 3 different companies).
:)
You can see the tone shift from BBG to RM clear as day, as well as the shift in focus and strategy. BBG wasn't talking in that much detail about selling Brockman or J/Ving it at generous rates, the details of the developing mining at Hanc0ck weren't mentioned that much or being worked on, but we did get very detailed and interesting drill hole results with plenty of geological insights. Talking as if we can explore, mine and juggle 4+ major projects. That has flipped for RM. He is laser focused on developing Hanc0ck and starting to build revenue with the express aim to use this free cash flow to explore and unlock value in Munni Munni where we could be mining something more fitting the name "Alien Metals". Metals that with a strange, almost supernatural shine to them.
Like RM I have always been mostly interested in EH, and then perhaps Munni Munni, and see the iron ore as a means to that end. I am very bullish on silver and PGMs in the long term, while iron demand might drop significantly (even for decades) if the Chinese housing bubble finally finishes popping. If the iron ore is easier, then we can work on that in the short term, but I don't see what UFO has at Hanc0ck as being mindblowing. We have the Sirius extension that just clips into our tenement for the 10 Mt JORC resource and we have a ton of ridges that give much more spotty results as far as I can tell. Brockman is almost completely untested.
I would like to see an improvement in shareholder communication with regards to EH. I don't think it's acceptable that we have been left hanging for months on such a significant component of the company value. I have never put any stock in this "motherlode" aspersion that has been cast by BBG - it would of course be wonderful if we found something like that, but the intercepts we have are compelling enough for me. The radio silence on that front, and Rod's seeming lack of interest in EH (especially compared to Munni Munni), gives me the impression that something nasty has been discovered that they are keeping under wraps. That is by far the biggest red flag for me.
I agree beardozer, timing is everything - I was just outlining my strategy, but the implementation requires timing. Just to say I'm not a "paper loss" sort of investor, and I will sell some shares if I think it is overpriced. I first bought a small amount at 70p and now my average is 32p. The volumes I've bought have gone up steadily.
I see averaging down as accumulating - its all about confidence in the company for me. You need to know what you're buying, and there are only so many hours in the day to research stocks. I try to stay a little diversified and I've found that I can reasonably keep up with 5 - 10 companies at a time, even if I'm not invested in all of them based on the price and news flow. I have been expecting a change of fortune in BEN for months now, I didn't expect the sell of to be so persistent. We'll get it when we get it, it hasn't changed the fundamentals for me so I'm happy to hold until they do.
The disconnect between the SP and the value of the stock is what gets value investors in the door, and if the SP keeps dropping but the intrinsic value stays the same I would expect them to keep topping up. When I balance my portfolio I compare each stock's SP with my confidence in that stock and adjust them accordingly - if one has overperformed compared to my expectations I will top slice and if one is doing badly, but I have no reason to adjust my expectations for their profitability, I will top up. I will even sell a stock that is doing badly to top up on another stock that is doing badly if my confidence in them changes. Others may top up when they think there is some movement in the stock, and each to their own. But since BEN has been sliding ever since the big JS dump, where I got involved, I have only accumulated. *sigh*
Even if it's uncomfortable because there's a certain amount of anxiety, I think this is where profits are made. If the true value of the company is 150p per share, as an example, and I'm able to buy for 50p, that's great. 30p, even better. 25p ... madness. And on it goes. I expect the SP to reflect the true value around March if everything keeps on track and we get the 2nd HWM and more trains this month, and then everything between here and the true value is profit. I expect to receive a 10p dividend next year, probably at the start of Q3, and if it is a 10% dividend that's already great, at 100p SP. Mining sector 15 year average divi is 2.5%. The point we're at now, that divi is 40%.
By punters you mean traders and by rampers you mean LTHs right? I don't think this points to anything being wrong, just that there was a pump and dump ending earlier in the summer which has depressed the SP since. Traders will come and go based on expected news flow and investors will accumulate as long as they believe in the fundamental value. When I start to be alarmed is when LTHs are getting upset by how the company is treating them or how the value proposition is going. I don't see that much around here though.
The permit news a month ago was expected by the market and was delayed way too long, but from when they got the permit to already moving mining to it in 1 month seems not too shabby and is new information. The bench for the 2nd HWM (and therefore the arrival of it) has been said to be completed very soon, and given the timeline we know for creating the space for the 1st (and that they've already been working on it) it seems reasonable to expect that in a couple weeks.
I quite like the podcasts as I have a long commute, and it gives more of an honest, personal feel to the information, but I think they would benefit from going more mainstream with their publicity too. I like the investormeetcompany platform for AGMs and results presentations, maybe an interview with Proactive Investors would be good too.
IOCA is 100% owned by UFO. They put the iron ore assets under a different banner so now an interested partner could do a J/V or take some ownership of just the iron ore assets (or buy them outright). It hasn't happened yet but with Anglo American and other mega players sniffing around the iron ore resources it's looking more and more likely.
Yeah we are at 10 trains total, I just didn't remember which months the previous 2 trains were in. We booked the 8 trains when we'd already received 6, so I think we're due 2 in Nov and 2 in Dec. We aren't completely gated by the trains, hope that we will be using this opportunity to sort out more storage capacity if we are close to hitting our capacity. Can't hurt.
Pretty happy with the rise over the last few days, hope it's a reversal of the slow bleed we've seen until now and we can get back into the 30s before Halloween. That will be a treat.
These were my thoughts too Turbo. A lot of movements that haven't quite materialised yet but the dozens of small steps and contracts needed to get to shovel ready Q1 2023 are being worked on pretty fast. We could have gamechanging announcements from negotiations on Brockman and Vivash. The placing was also raising funds for additional drills on Munni Munni so we should expect that beast to be awakened in a few months when the results come back tying together the old drill results.
This isn't the type of RNS to get people jumping off their couches but at the same time is a good indicator that we are progressing fast with a simple game plan at IOCA. Sell-off is unwarranted.
4 in August, 2 in Sept and 2 in October so far. Adam was expecting one or two more in Sept so it is surprising that we are almost at the end of October and have seen only 2 trains since the last podcast. However he also said that Norfolk Southern is keen on sending the same train back and forth, so I am looking to see that train turned around and sent right back to us at least a couple more times in the next couple weeks to take some of the inventory. There is also the ramp up transition between BEN booking a train here and there based on inventory and being scheduled for a fixed number a month, be that 4 or more. That will likely require some logistic rearrangement on the part of NS that might take time to filter through depending on their capacity.
However this is likely also a slower period for mining for the company. There is the transition over from the hired equipment to commissioning and training employees (not an external company) on our own equipment. They also need to build the benches for the HWM to mine. I think we need to give a bit more time for the kinks to sort themselves out before thinking that we are being let down. The 2nd HWM is out of BEN's control as are the trains, so there have always been caveats on the expectations of them arriving.
It's more about attitude and tone Chris2
Anyway, I don't know if I've missed some updates but there appear to be a lot of logistics sorted and revealed in this RNS. All relatively small but all necessary and amounting to a fair amount of work.
Would be very nice to have a free carry on Brockman while someone like Fortescue develops it and gives us revenue to pursue Munni Munni and EH. These deals behind the scenes could be make or break for the acceleration we'll see.
Would like an EH update too though.
Kibo's 61% stake in Mast is now worth 20% more than Kibo's own MCap? I don't know enough about this share but surely the rest of the company isn't worth -£1.3 M. Will have to do some research and get back to you over here.
I also put in for a portfolio assessment for some mining stocks I am interested in, and came back with pretty poor results overall. I guess most stocks are rated low because then you have the curiosity to subscribe for which are recommended at the top.
4 - Rio Tinto
5 - Mkango
6 - Shanta, Atalaya
7 - Alien
no rating - Xtract
Shanta has "small mines" which is outdated as they have expanded their JORC considerably and are opening up a new site. Otherwise as expected.
Looking forward to an update if and when we get one.
Traders operate in small caps and try to manipulate the sp. Not all stocks and not all the time, but I think since the JS fiasco we've seen a lot of churn from small traders speculating and exiting. Since I'm not investing enough to move the needle I am happy to take advantage of this price action to accumulate.
I don't really believe in this chart wizardry but since other people do I have at least familiarised myself with it. Today we bounced off a pre-rise support of 23.3 and have an RSI of 27, the lowest it has ever been aside from the JS sell-off. Nobody here needs telling that this is heavily oversold but from a charting perspective I also expect this to reverse trend very soon.
Thanks for the response penstock, it looks that we have a huge backlog and Adam did say that "the trains come like buses" in the most recent podcast, "we have seen 3 or 4 trains arrive at once", and that the trains are getting more regular as we build up towards 1 mT / year (which we are on target for achieving beginning of next year). My impression was that this is just a lull where the brave are rewarded by increasingly ridiculous SPs driven by lack of news flow and macro trends.