Member Info for picax

The SP cratered when AS went on vox, nothing more or less. Comms have been vague and scary, and honestly don't blame people selling up. The CEO is critical to success and if he repeatedly puts his foot in his mouth then he might also make decisions like taking the LFT off the market a short time after getting HUA, and not even announcing numbers as to why. Maybe good to rephrase "loss of confidence" as "accurately predicting AS shooting himself in the foot again unprompted".

What's going on? Have we had any substantial news? Not that I'm complaining but 1p is a pretty major milestone and we're breaking it on a "holdings in company" RNS ... as far as I can tell. Baffling.

The tone of the communication and content was shocking for what was actually being said. Investors don't like uncertainty and emphasizing how little he knows about how long it will take to reprepare and how regulators will see it is awful for confidence. "We can't know for sure but since the end user experience will remain the same and one modular component is being changed, we hope to be able to keep the product CE mark and HUA approval under term x.y.z of those regulations" - something like this would have the same content but perceived very differently. Also emphasising how developed and competitive the LFT market is ... no, it's not developed for the specificity and accuracy of Avacta's LFT.

"Whilst the AffiDX® antigen test is effective at identifying high viral loads of Omicron, further laboratory analysis carried out by Avacta indicates that the sensitivity of the test is reduced at lower viral loads when compared with the sensitivity of the AffiDX® test with previous SARS-CoV-2 variants." - 10th Jan RNS

A continuation of such atrocious communication it is almost impressive. What sensitivity does the LFT have towards high viral loads? How does this compare with other tests on the market? I expect it still outperforms the cheap Chinese tests, but the emphasis is that it wasn't as good as when testing the previous variants. This implies it now just doesn't work at all, which is what was pretty much said by AS in this interview but seems to be contradicted by the words used in the RNS. They could have continued to sell it while upgrading it using a different antibody to improve the performance and enable stronger multi-variant testing. But they refuse to release any data and just give vague smoke signals to the market implying the worst.

I think the situation is possibly much better than is being suggested by the company but am completely mystified as to why they are selectively presenting the worst possible interpretations of the information. Almost makes you think that AS is getting some under the table funding from Jupiter.

Metalhead25 thread "fun with numbers" started 28th Jan:
"EH. The one everyone is excited about at the moment but also the one we know least about. A lot of guessing/hoping here but if you imagine we have an ore body 150m x 150m x 50m you get c. 3.375MT of ore. If we assume/hope 50 oz/t Ag, that’s about 170m ounces. Silver spot $22/Oz, AISC $10/Oz gives lifetime operating profit of c. $2bn. Round down for capex, inefficiencies etc: gross future value c. $1.75bn."

It's real finger-in-the-air stuff at this point because we only know it was an old mine that was shut down because of poor silver price, we have no idea whats down the mine but do know it was producing fabled chunks of pure silver and that they were very sloppy mapping and testing. The surface and the polymetallic halo around EH were never really tested either, it must have felt like looking for crumbs around the table when there is a 3 tier cake on top of it. This style of resource simply doesn't exist anymore. How expensive it will be to extract the silver and other metals, don't really know. This is all as background as to why I think Metalheads numbers are pretty conservative but still come to $2bn in revenue forecast.

The big risk isn't that we don't have enough, it's that we get acquired or run out of funding before revenue generation starts. My hope is for a JV with Fortescue to get Hanc0ck running, invest in more infrastructure, people and kit at EH and MM with that revenue, and produce those ourselves, because PGM and silver are the future and we have an insane amount of it.

The SP drop looks more like consolidation to me, it is not tanking. We were at 0.57p less than a week ago, shares don't go meteoric unless the AIM crowd decide they do, often based on nothing. Meanwhile stellar performances can be ignored because the momentum stalls. It's an exposure game and people who have been here before the EH news will know that EH was already very promising from previous grades and Han**** / Brockman could make the company a £1B cap by themselves. We have hardly scratched the surface but that region of the Pilbara is surrounded by like 5 of the top 10 iron ore mines in the world. The company has shown DSO fine grades that Rio and the like aren't pulling up nearby, and yet the company sat at £15MM for most of the year. This isn't a new event really, Alien is really under the radar. The vast majority of investors don't even look at no revenue miners, they show up on SimplyWallSt or Stockopedia as the worst stocks you can get. Once we get some numbers to put on those sites they will calculate our resources fairly and the rerate will be mind-numbing. Hopefully we see a steady raise until that point to assure LTHs but the market is very skittish right now.

It's a volatile share and the upwards buying pressure we saw Thurs and Fri was immense, it is natural to expect a bit of a pullback. UFO were materially undervalued before EH, and even blockbuster grades won't reduce the perceived risk for some people, since this is still pre-production. For gains to really stick we need to get to revenue generation asap. The general market is also in a pretty tense downward dip currently, so people are going to be even more skittish around small caps. I agree that I think we're seeing the traders clear out with their 40% and some big money move in, maybe helped by the MMs.

I'm not so concerned about the suppression because it appears that UFO is materially undervalued and will make significant profit even in the current silver climate, but yeah we could be well positioned for a huge silver rally as demand keeps increasing and supply keeps dropping . Inflation worries are looking to put unprecedented demand on silver and as soon as some of the big shorts start closing up, because of how overloaded the silver market is with short positions, it might well squeeze like WSS thinks. The paper silver market dwarfs the bullion market in terms of monetary flows by something like 100:1, and if people start calling their contracts it could be another huge financial crisis. I just don't know why this level of disconnect has been perpetuated for so long and why no one has forced the call cascade that occurred during the 2008 crash for example.

The subreddit (which has apparently bought collectively 500 M Oz of silver metal) is having a raid of buying physical silver today for their 1 year anniversary. Was just curious what people thought of the various theories that are around in that community, notably that the silver price is heavily manipulated by the futures market which sets the price. It really doesn't make sense that from May last year the silver price has dropped while inflation fears run rampant. I think the original WSS was hyped up by the banks to distract and remove buying pressure from GME during that short squeeze a year ago, but I was wondering if they had a valid investment case and what I'm missing if they don't. I would be surprised if this raid materially affects the silver price but was asking more about general sentiment concerning silver manipulation and COMEX.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/nwzadx/a_comprehensive_compilation_of_all_due_diligence/

It's very difficult to value but I have reduced your estimates to bare minimum where possible and halved the resource at EH to get an insanely conservative resource estimate. Notably these aren't including significant copper, nickel, cobalt, zinc and lead in the EH envelope. Total conservative estimate is still £4.75 bn total and the company is currently worth 1% of that.

Things removed to reduce the value: Nothing else discovered at Hanc*ck, lowest estimate at Brockman, EH halved in size, and $22 / oz is also very conservative for silver. This also isn't include the "complete unknowns" (but we have a good indication that stuff is there) of the other projects and the source motherlode of the malefic intrusion in the EH / MM complex. Even with it being early stages , the market valuation doesn't make sense at all. I would hope this will hold 3p over the next couple of months and possibly rerate further as new assays come in from Hanc*ck and EH and progress is made preparing for extraction.

We are still very under the radar here, only reason why resources like these are still valued at this level. EH, Han****, Munni Munni and Brockman could individually justify a £100M MCap company - and that was before this RNS, where BBG has revealed that we will be able to essentially dig out the topsoil and get grades 25x the average underground grades.

I know you've been here a lot longer but I got into UFO last year and have been questioning if there is some huge oversight I've made in valuing these resources, or if the market is inefficient by possibly 2 orders of magnitude - after today's stunted rise I have to believe that the latter is the case. This is as close to picking money up off the ground as you can get.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but if you're 45% down you would need to see the share price nearly double, an 82% rise, to get back up to baseline. I am at -48%. Some people here are 80% down, meaning if they ever get back up to break even there is likely to be some French traders seeing 5 bags at the same time. Such is life, such is the market. Not fair, never claimed to be. Admittedly I didn't see this share commit seppuku as being the reason for the loss, but for some reason they have decided to never talk to the market except in the most stilted manner once every 4 months. 100 days with no comms and DA doesn't appear to have much of a plan out of COVID. We shall have to see.

MCap is £51M and revenue is >£150M, but unless I'm mistaken we don't know profits yet. This was meant to be the first profitable year for Yu and that was before the FY revenue estimate was knocked out of the park with £156M contracted for next year.

Value investing is all about finding stocks which the market has mispriced for whatever reason, the efficient market hypothesis is blatantly incorrect. It is a safe utility company with disruptive technology that is growing very fast and has survived and thrived from the gas price meltup last year, reducing competition and freeing up customers. Yu is a microcap with low liquidity which is likely stopping it from reaching fair value, which should be multiples of the current SP. If anyone with moderately deep pockets, institutional investors or otherwise, got in here this would explode.

A possible reason for the bad market reaction is that DA latgely reiterated strategy presented at last meeting, meaning "we don't have one beyond COVID". Again they are very evasive when talking about exactly where they are going in the diagnostics industry, what they could develop products for and how big those addressable markets are. For the most part this reads like "the gravy train is slowing down but we're on board as long as it is moving and we are still looking for a connection".

The pandemic "end in sight" stories began almost a year ago and DA has been there 100 days. That is plenty of time to look and invest in other fields if you ask me, with the expertise and infrastructure they have. No mention of how their sales did with the Omicron surge either. Disappointing indeed.

Tuesday is going to be the update based on past years?

The first gut punch in this case is that COVID is perceived to be over and AVCT's LFT was pulled when demand is at all time highs, after a year of being blocked by the UK government sabotaging it and finally being able to sell. The second is that we've only had teasers about AVA6000 going well without concrete evidence. It would be nice if we had news about that to improve sentiment, but with the current track record people are hesitant even with the transformational potential of imminent news.

The issue with Yu's undervaluation has always been just spotlight and illiquidity. Under 10 trades a day most days, huge spread, acts like friction stopping it moving. Increased trading volume will reduce the friction, get others looking at it and wondering how this is still at this level. Looking forward to a trading update that really takes the brakes off. Unfortunately I did the same calculations about a year ago and got spiked. Still don't really know why.

There is still a lot going for the share and I think one of the several frustrations is that we are overdue results from AVA6000 at the very least. That would help to shore up confidence in the non-COVID plans.

The announcement was also poor strategically. They could have announced that they maintain sensitivity at high viral loads but they will transition out the antibody in a new product that returns to the high sensitivty at low viral loads. Completely possible to not have to halt manufacture and keep selling products, maybe at a discount, that work very well - just not excellently.

Things I'm confused by with this RNS:
1) No comment about whether this affects HUA status or the LFT has to go through 6mo+ recert
2) No news on sales numbers or production cap, or whether current test inventory has to be scrapped or can be remade
3) Admitting that almost all other tests are probably affected and don't have this data out (but not providing it either lol, just saying "it's worse"), so why release this data first? Especially if it's only affecting low viral loads so is comparable to Innova etc.?
4) AVA6000 dosing info should be with us early Dec I think, still no news but expanding trials

Maybe I've got some things wrong but I think this is just shooting yourself in the foot voluntarily and asking everyone else to do it, and when the main test manufacturer is already one-legged.

Nothing from this year has been factored in to the SP from Yu's fundamentals alone, so looking forward to results. Hopefully people will also realise that since a lot of SME competition have gone under and Yu have survived and thrived through prudent hedging, there is everything to play for in the coming years and growth should continue on a strong trajectory.

10% is nothing in this stock, wake me up when we break out of the sideways channel. Then I might consider that the market is realising UFO's position and trajectory.