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I have been looking at Shanta for a while and still don't understand. Maybe I am being dense. If Singida opens on time and takes Shanta to 100,000 oz this year as forecast by the company, this looks like a winner. They have other exploration targets showing commercial grades, including expansion at NLGM. Add to that the coming global recession and inflation which should see gold move up, and the company has consistent cash flows. My estimates are that a fair value is around 50p. What am I missing?
As with many of my investments, I have been underwater and bought and bought as it dropped until my appetite was exhausted. Been underwater and not able to justify buying more for months. My goal is long-term returns and so my decisions are based on ultimate valuation instead of short-term SP moves, which for me are almost impossible to predict. Looking forward to seeing the recovery, but not feeling like I missed out on the 20p buy in.
Last research note was 22/03/22, and in 2021 Turner Pope released 7 reports in the year - in the summer, they were releasing around 1 a month. There was a 4 month break between Nov 21 and March 22, and we haven't heard from them since. Does anyone know if the broker status lapsed or if UFO stopped paying for broker notes? In the last research note, they teased: "TPI is now considering [previously mentioned factors] along with scope to reduce the aggressive 80% discount presently applied to the opportunity. Similarly prudent valuations apportioned elsewhere amongst the Group’s exciting, albeit earlier stage portfolio, to which applied exploration-stage discounts range from 60% to 90% (in order to account for remaining execution, financing and dilution risks), also need to be revisited."
In March they provided a lot of compelling reasons to upgrade their estimate of UFO's upside valuation of £83m, but didn't do it in that research note. Since March, UFO have accelerated in their path to production, secured permits and have an offtake agreement on the table. Seems like we're due a new note.
I agree that should be a significant moment where we rerate and that the SP has declined in part because of the delays on it. The SP has been oversold since the JS sell so looking forward to a rerate prior to the HWM arriving. Just not sure if this is another false dawn intended to catch out speculators. If we can get above 30p I'll start believing.
We had a big move up to 26p recently only for the SP to nosedive to 20p shortly after. I suspect most people in this stock now are LTH who are significantly underwater, and will only dust off the fireworks for a sustained move that breaks 30p.
Nice move today but imo breaking the drift down will probably involve reports of substantially more NS trains booked early next year and a return to above 30p, shocking to think that's going to be almost a 50% move from these levels. The 2nd HWM will also be a big change to sentiment, and of course some moves in the metcoal spot price. Ultimately these are all precursors to audited accounts showing decent ROE and profits. Will be an interesting Q1. It feels like BEN is getting into third gear now and will very ready for fourth by end of Q1.
penstock, just to play devil's advocate for a minute here: while it isn't great for investor sentiment and the SP, keeping some (or most) information close to the chest is a good move from a business perspective. Adam has multiple people to negotiate with on pricing and logistics. If I was in charge of the business, I wouldn't want to advertise to my rail shipping companies that I am desperate to offload coal because my storage is reaching capacity, for example, and in general keeping your hand hidden is the default move. That is the main reason I expect that they aren't providing much clarity on things that are in investor interest to disclose, because it is possible it (has the potential to) hurt the business. I'm not sure if release some parts of that picture via Sunday Roast podcast is the right move, but I think they see it as PR and are just making conversation, which is why I agree that they need to sort out a proper marketing firm that has a wider reach and can make those sorts of judgments (how much, what, and when to say things) with more experience and expertise.
I think it's a worse showing than people were expecting because a lot of the work that has been done in the last 6 months hasn't translated to profits, but now we're producing at 40 kT+ / month and headed towards 60+ whenever the 2nd HWM gets on site (a pretty sizeable delay but waiting for the expanded permit and bench clearance made sense). Ballpark figures, if the company has $100 / t costs and $250 / t revenue and produces 65 kt / month, you are looking at 120 M$ profit in the year. The way things are looking we could get the divi announced by end of Q1 and paid out end of Q2. I think they could clear their debt in 23Q1 as 22Q4 profits haven't been included in the numbers yet and there is a sizeable stockpile. There are also many minor things that will likely add up, such as the months getting longer, HighVolA from the underground mines commanding a higher price, double shifts and cost savings from scale and owning the equipment. The results are slowly eating through my pain tolerance but they haven't got through yet, and I think the bottom line should fatten nicely next year so it will be rewarding to hold on.
Unless they are operating in a weird way I would expect those to be separate items on the balance sheet, or when shipping through the other train system the prices are going to be out of whack. Integrity should confirm a price and pay BEN for the coal delivered and whatever the cost of the train should come out of existing cash from BEN (depending on invoicing or prepayment conditions etc.). Revenue from coal shipping should be simply average coal sale price x sale number.
I don't think there is anything shady going on, I expect it has a good explanation and most likely that the early trains weren't fully loaded. In any case the results to Sept aren't indicative of the numbers that BEN are expecting from this point forward, 40 kT / month and with the 2nd HWM expected next month.
The 17.4 M$ for 88 kt (8 trains x 11,000 t / train) I can't square. The average price should be $197 / t, way lower than the spot price during that (or this) period. I've been trying to think of an explanation but haven't managed one. Should be due a Sunday Roast where it might be cleared up.
A nice update showing good growth and a bright future. A lot of derisking has happened in the last 6 months and looking forward to the next 6 for increased production, more trains and a higher metcoal price.
To answer "whats not to like" seriously: From an LTH perspective, the standard sites like stockopedia and simplywallst give this a failing grade. From a trading perspective, tradingview and others rate this as garbage due to being under most moving averages and with awful momentum. Add that there are a wide variety of pretty crazy opportunities in small caps and/or miners due to indiscriminate sell-offs over the last year.
For those who have read the RNSs and punched in the numbers themselves rather than looking at outdated balance sheets, imo this is an incredible opportunity to multibag inside a year from now. But if most people thought that, it wouldn't be where it is right now. Catch 22 of value investing.
AIM is dominated by traders anyway, but the bear market hasn't helped. People are flipping solid gold stocks for 15% gains when they are worth 5-10x their MCap. Truly a bananas market we're in, and no telling when the trader caravan will trundle through to pump and dump a share. There was a big craze for lithium stocks like 2 weeks ago that went away as fast as it arrived, and we've seen a few of those type events. The market is meant to be forward looking and yet here we are sitting on a high expectation of 40% divi next year (with metcoal expected to bounce up and production still ramping). Most people don't want to hold for 6 months even. Go figure.
Jumpstreet is a 1 day old account with 9 posts, with his first being a thread starter called "Check Steve4077 for pump & dump", only on this BB. Having read through Steve's calcs I don't see anywhere he is saying there is 74 kt Cu or is ever multiplying by the cut off. Both these statements are just laughable. I have a bad feeling that Steve is correct that this is Kevin, and that would just compound the embarrassment of this whole debacle. The MM / escalation threats really are low when you can't dispute anything he has said.
Just had a listen to the podcast and couldn't believe my ears. Independent experts may have conducted the study and modelling but it is on XTR to word and release the information which seems very misleading if Steve's calculations are correct. There was a lot of complicated stuff in the background but the JORC comparison is maths for 10 year olds and is in the RNSs. Like a lot of the comments on this BB there's a lot of projection, getting up in arms, "how dare he" sort of comments which just seem juvenile and defensive. To read from Steve that they're going to escalate this when I've heard Colin say 1.1 Mt Cu about 10 times in 2 podcasts is just laughable. The previous podcast bears a listen if you want to hear how impartial Colin is "just waiting for the experts". Just barmy behaviour.
I see, thanks. Yes all the CuEq / cut-off changing did my head in, which is why I tried but ended up not verifying your prior calculations. In any case I think all this goalpost changing by releasing incomparable numbers by CB does smell a bit fishy, and at the very least, if the new CuEq is a better metric (which it probably is), rerelease the old results but updated to account for this change in calculations.
I don't know enough about this company but I was also a bit concerned listening to the recent Sunday Roast podcast with how frustrated CB seemed to get and his insistence that XTR missing their target of 2 Mt was immaterial because they specified 2 Mt or mineable, and they are definitely going to mine it which means people should be happy (around 8:30). I also don't like how he was so laser focused on the 1.1 Mt Cu when it turns out this was CuEq and was actually under 1 Mt of Cu. It sounds nitpicky but 1 Mt seems like a big milestone and they are desperate to be classed above that and not to miss it by a hair. XTR have a lot of other resources which seem quite promising though, the Zambia mines and Ascot and such. So perhaps even if Racecourse isn't all it's made out to be there is still significant value in this share.
I was looking to get into XTR and the drop gave me a good opportunity, but I didn't pending checking why the drop happened and then checking Steve4077's posts. I ran his numbers (the basic ones on old and new JORC) and found the numbers check out on the 0.135 Cu%. I don't really understand how that could be included since the scenario had cut-off of 0.15%. Also, I don't know anything about mining and didn't check any of the numbers that fed into those conclusions. Given how many deductions had to be made to reach the resource conclusion I wonder if there are some specifics that lead to there being some invalid calculation in the background. Not sure for now so didn't dip my toe in just yet.