Member Info for picax

I have always said that I don't really care what the SP does but this now feels like a bit of a joke. This is no longer a matter of trust - the company are set to be producing 80 KT a month and be ramping towards that starting in Feb. You don't need to be a long-term investor to realise the value here in year timescales. This company is going to be a serious money printer inside H1. At this point, what does the market need to be finally convinced? The 2nd HWM in full production? Updated financial statement after it is running? There is even a brokers note with extremely conservative pricing that comes out at over triple the current SP. Still, it's just a matter of time now before the market realises, and I don't think it will be a long wait.

Fair value if the metcoal price is $225 and a 10% depreciation, high AISC, 6p dividend for full year 2023/4. That gets you to 86p. Lol.

Have to agree with sirmark on that one, even if it turns out to be the correct play tomorrow I would steer clear of those sites and that style of investing (technical analysis AKA candle voodoo). They largely run on confirmation bias, if you stick to a strategy of trading when they tell you to, I expect you will find yourself out of pocket in the long run. People just believe that they work because they remember when they've followed it and won, rather than the times they ignored it and would have lost, or when they did lose. If you are basically taking the place of an algorithm in executing trades you can believe that there is an algorithm out there doing the same thing as you but better.

In any case, I have recently come to the realisation that the charts are actually a terrible thing to be looking at when investing, as this time-based share price data is worse than useless for value investors. All we need to know is that the current price is markedly less than what we think the share is worth. All the charts do is mess with your head - you will feel fear on a drop and overconfident on a rise based on the size and colour of the little candles. Timing your buys and sells based on the SP movement is only useful if your window is a few weeks or less - the sort of movements that value investors care about in the long term dwarf any fretting about a few fractions of a penny here or there if the value is as mismatched as you think it is. The SP is entertainment and a sense of validation but little else. Source: someone who watches the charts daily and knows nothing

Moved some funds to come onboard today. Exciting times ahead.

On its way, parts coming through! Very good news, very unlikely there will be delays to this timeline imo.

Some positive movement and a retrace is common, just don't know when it will happen. Volume isn't huge today. Hopefully the market has heard that BEN are loading trucks to get to a different station when they don't have NS trains. Think we're still on track.

The day before the telegraph article (and now finding out that Myles has bought in today and yesterday) I was here questioning why it was so low, but opted to remain out until closer to the Singida release. Sod's law! Now it has broken 10.5 I expect good things.

0.91 with 1.2m if you can believe it. I don't mind adding on the way up from profits from other stocks as I expect great things. Nice little rise we're on today.

Hope so. 2nd HWM soon and ramping towards full production will hugely improve the chances of the divi this year. Metcoal on the up and up with China reopening too. All looking quite rosy.

@Hounddog10 - thanks for your comments. I agree with all of them and the stuff i didn't know fits into the picture I have for the company. The SP appears to be depressed for backward-looking reasons, not for the forward looking potential of the crown pillar, Singida and further assay results in other locations. The takeover interest was when the SP was near its resistance of 8.5p, just looking for cheap acquisitions. The SP isn't far off that now, although I suspect there will be sideways drift between 8.5 and 10.5p until perhaps late Feb when there is interest in Singida opening. By then I should have some funds available to dip a toe in here. ATB all

@Tornadotony
Thanks for your risk assessment - I had all those down as risks, but I couldn't justify any of them. The Singida development is on schedule and nearing completion, so is substantially derisked. The gold price has been suppressed by a strong dollar and the dollar appears to be weakening, and if it doesn't, many economies are going to be hurting from that alone. A Fed pivot is anticipated this year which should further drop the dollar. Luika has had a million man-hours without a time loss incident, and the outputs have not just been consistent, but have increased since they entered the crown pillar zone. They are now grading 9 - 10 g/t, double that of Q2 2022. The highest grade gold mines (which are very rare and small) in the world are operating at around 10 - 13 g/t. Debt appeared to be mostly drawn down to hit a dividend target which I didn't fully understand - maybe I misunderstood that. In any case it isn't huge compared to their cash flows. If these are the risks that people are factoring in I'm expecting that the stock is just completely overlooked and still depressed from the T/O bids. Will watch and consider coming in.

I have been looking at Shanta for a while and still don't understand. Maybe I am being dense. If Singida opens on time and takes Shanta to 100,000 oz this year as forecast by the company, this looks like a winner. They have other exploration targets showing commercial grades, including expansion at NLGM. Add to that the coming global recession and inflation which should see gold move up, and the company has consistent cash flows. My estimates are that a fair value is around 50p. What am I missing?

As with many of my investments, I have been underwater and bought and bought as it dropped until my appetite was exhausted. Been underwater and not able to justify buying more for months. My goal is long-term returns and so my decisions are based on ultimate valuation instead of short-term SP moves, which for me are almost impossible to predict. Looking forward to seeing the recovery, but not feeling like I missed out on the 20p buy in.

Last research note was 22/03/22, and in 2021 Turner Pope released 7 reports in the year - in the summer, they were releasing around 1 a month. There was a 4 month break between Nov 21 and March 22, and we haven't heard from them since. Does anyone know if the broker status lapsed or if UFO stopped paying for broker notes? In the last research note, they teased: "TPI is now considering [previously mentioned factors] along with scope to reduce the aggressive 80% discount presently applied to the opportunity. Similarly prudent valuations apportioned elsewhere amongst the Group’s exciting, albeit earlier stage portfolio, to which applied exploration-stage discounts range from 60% to 90% (in order to account for remaining execution, financing and dilution risks), also need to be revisited."

In March they provided a lot of compelling reasons to upgrade their estimate of UFO's upside valuation of £83m, but didn't do it in that research note. Since March, UFO have accelerated in their path to production, secured permits and have an offtake agreement on the table. Seems like we're due a new note.

I agree that should be a significant moment where we rerate and that the SP has declined in part because of the delays on it. The SP has been oversold since the JS sell so looking forward to a rerate prior to the HWM arriving. Just not sure if this is another false dawn intended to catch out speculators. If we can get above 30p I'll start believing.

We had a big move up to 26p recently only for the SP to nosedive to 20p shortly after. I suspect most people in this stock now are LTH who are significantly underwater, and will only dust off the fireworks for a sustained move that breaks 30p.

Nice move today but imo breaking the drift down will probably involve reports of substantially more NS trains booked early next year and a return to above 30p, shocking to think that's going to be almost a 50% move from these levels. The 2nd HWM will also be a big change to sentiment, and of course some moves in the metcoal spot price. Ultimately these are all precursors to audited accounts showing decent ROE and profits. Will be an interesting Q1. It feels like BEN is getting into third gear now and will very ready for fourth by end of Q1.

penstock, just to play devil's advocate for a minute here: while it isn't great for investor sentiment and the SP, keeping some (or most) information close to the chest is a good move from a business perspective. Adam has multiple people to negotiate with on pricing and logistics. If I was in charge of the business, I wouldn't want to advertise to my rail shipping companies that I am desperate to offload coal because my storage is reaching capacity, for example, and in general keeping your hand hidden is the default move. That is the main reason I expect that they aren't providing much clarity on things that are in investor interest to disclose, because it is possible it (has the potential to) hurt the business. I'm not sure if release some parts of that picture via Sunday Roast podcast is the right move, but I think they see it as PR and are just making conversation, which is why I agree that they need to sort out a proper marketing firm that has a wider reach and can make those sorts of judgments (how much, what, and when to say things) with more experience and expertise.

I think it's a worse showing than people were expecting because a lot of the work that has been done in the last 6 months hasn't translated to profits, but now we're producing at 40 kT+ / month and headed towards 60+ whenever the 2nd HWM gets on site (a pretty sizeable delay but waiting for the expanded permit and bench clearance made sense). Ballpark figures, if the company has $100 / t costs and $250 / t revenue and produces 65 kt / month, you are looking at 120 M$ profit in the year. The way things are looking we could get the divi announced by end of Q1 and paid out end of Q2. I think they could clear their debt in 23Q1 as 22Q4 profits haven't been included in the numbers yet and there is a sizeable stockpile. There are also many minor things that will likely add up, such as the months getting longer, HighVolA from the underground mines commanding a higher price, double shifts and cost savings from scale and owning the equipment. The results are slowly eating through my pain tolerance but they haven't got through yet, and I think the bottom line should fatten nicely next year so it will be rewarding to hold on.

Unless they are operating in a weird way I would expect those to be separate items on the balance sheet, or when shipping through the other train system the prices are going to be out of whack. Integrity should confirm a price and pay BEN for the coal delivered and whatever the cost of the train should come out of existing cash from BEN (depending on invoicing or prepayment conditions etc.). Revenue from coal shipping should be simply average coal sale price x sale number.

I don't think there is anything shady going on, I expect it has a good explanation and most likely that the early trains weren't fully loaded. In any case the results to Sept aren't indicative of the numbers that BEN are expecting from this point forward, 40 kT / month and with the 2nd HWM expected next month.

The 17.4 M$ for 88 kt (8 trains x 11,000 t / train) I can't square. The average price should be $197 / t, way lower than the spot price during that (or this) period. I've been trying to think of an explanation but haven't managed one. Should be due a Sunday Roast where it might be cleared up.