Member Info for philpot1001

It would be ideal if we could get clear direction on why the harvests have been poor, but TBH I'm not convinced people actually know. It's certainly a steep learning curve for all involved including management as well as investors. I certainly believe diversifying and spreading risk with the cashew investment is a good idea (proviso the cashew crops do OK while the palms are not - anyone got any evidence on cashew harvests ATM?)

lincolnd did make the statement:

"Management looking to capitalise on the lower availability of CPO in the region as a result of the poor harvest to secure sales of CPO at a premium to international prices for the remainder of the year"

implying the whole region has had a poor harvest. From that I would conclude our market share has probably not dropped much (if at all). Although its scant solace, I think it would be more worrying if it was market share, as a poor harvest should be a transient issue.

although its still not clear what's causing the poor harvest, as Greenfool pointed out its "indicated" a cyclic plant issue the native low yielding palms suffer from (although I personally believe weather conditions may be having an effect)......there is a statement about more modern higher yielding plants from the nursery helping alleviate this issue long term (but that will be several years down the line before that kicks in properly).

Yep lower than I hoped for.

I have to admit I was erring on the side of a rate rise in Aug, now I'm not too sure, I don't think the PMI's were utterly convincing, and since then data has been to the down side. May boil down to desperation to get a rise in rather than economical justification if it happens..

PS without wanting to be a killjoy we need over 13000 T to match H1 from last year (26,947 T), not 10500T. I think above 11000-12000 T and we should be ok to get close to the annual prod figure from last year though (q3 and q4 dependant obvs)

DB I believe DKL as a business is rock solid and low risk, I honestly believe that. Regarding EBITDA multiples, if we can just get off the recent annual production plateau circa 39k tonne and start pushing upwards again I think the projections of 20m EBIT will start to become more believable and the MCAP will become a much higher EBIT multiple

Anyone any thoughts regarding interest rates given poor wage growth .... however offset by semi decent PMI figures earlier in the month?

I guess the current SP woes come down to how you value a business's MCAP in factors of EBITDA. A rapidly expanding young business can warrant high factors if the projections are high enough (and they certainly were projecting sky high EBITDA back in 2014). a young business that's stalling is probably MCAP of something like 4-5 x EBITDA which is where we are at. At the end of the day we need the crops to get this back up and start giving confidence in those high EBITDA projections

Fundraiser, the last time DKL came close to a loss was 2015 when we only owned 51% of the operation - that year the production was 35770 ton....for us to come close to loss with 100% ownership we would have to 18000 ton.... you cannot seriously expect those numbers ? Regarding the cashew purchase nothing is guaranteed on that front and they may not take up the option. Just about the only thing I agree with from you is the market doesn't like a growth curve that isn't steeply upwards. The prod figures for sure could do with a kick up the pants, ain't that the truth

Making losses??? Where the hell are you pulling that from?

I'll reword that statement.... to be clear, by in line I'd say roughly within +/- 5% of annual totals IMO. For me the SP fall reflects an implosion of annual production .... not a stabilisation / assymptote of annual production, which is seemingly what we have.

If the Q2s are 90% of Q1s as they have been since 2015 (exception of mill shutdown) that's nothing to worry about at all. It would be likely total annual production would be exptected roughly in line with 2017 and 2016.Obviously we can't be sure Q2s will be in line with that yet but that's my guess.

The SP would agree!!

"Defend the country" ... spare me. Jog onto the Lloyds forum sunshine.

Again maybe - I only assumed it was related to the white paper as the drop coincided with the release. Could just be coincidence, but its a bit "smelly" IMO.......although if it is that, as i've said, I don't understand the mechanics of how its negative for BT.

I'm assuming it was something in the Brexit white paper that's startled the market - looking to have particularly affected BT? Is BT impacted by the "hard Brexit" effects of the service sector or something?

damn it missed this quote from the beginning of that

"naturally disappointed with the lower level of support received for our Remuneration Report for the year ending 31 March 2018.”

“Historically, both the remuneration report and our remuneration policy have received overwhelming shareholder support and over the past two weeks we have been in dialogue with our major shareholders and proxy advisers to discuss their questions and concerns."

"We understand that the lower level of support for the remuneration report is, in the most part, attributable to the annual bonus payment to BT's chief executive for the financial 2018 performance year.

"During the remainder of 2018 we will engage further with our shareholders and proxy advisers to understand in full detail the reasons for their concerns and whether we should consider any changes to our longer-term approach to remuneration."

only just seen the RNS Rugs, wondered what you were talking about lol ;o)

Last point on Q2s from me.... 2016 Q2s were about 90% of Q1s 2017 Q2s would have been 90% of Q1 had it not been for the mill issue 2018 Q2s would equal 12000 T at 90% of Q1s.... hence my 12000 T basis.