Member Info for philpot1001

Also 14k T would give us a serious chance of record annual prod figs.... 12k T would be possible but would need excellent Q3 and Q4

Considering how poorly FTSE is holding up today I think BT has held it's ground well ... so far

JK if we beat Q1's with the Q2's that would be a first, and signal an uptrend in harvests IMO, however I personally think it'll be less but not by much... I'm going 12k T. Let the guessing games commence ;) I agree DB most people who were looking to bail on poor Q2s should have probably done so by now, and to be fair we've been banging on for yonks now about the management not informing us of negative prod figs and saying everything's fine, so they should be applauded for transparency IMO

https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/derby-news/a52-roadworks-derby-city-council-1749412

looks like most of the hard labour on site has ceased (which tallies with my experience driving passed it every day), and they are mostly surveying again and planning. Bridge is being fabricated off site ATM.

Forget that question.... looks like BoJo scarpering has risen BT

Anyone know why telecoms in particular are down today (exception of talktalk) ?

Cheers JK - I knew I'd seen that somewhere but couldn't find it in the results RNS. Fingers crossed for 2019 then I guess. It is consistent with the statement regarding maturity on the website too.

Can't wait for those nursery plants to finally start maturing and delivering FFB's.... Dkl website reckons 2-3 yrs to maturity, must be about that when they started selling them, so shouldn't be long surely?

What on earth up with those 2 opposing 20 grand trades !? Weird trading for sure.

TBH Rugs, I live in Nottingham and at present I don't believe it will EVER rain here again!!! 3 months and only 1 day of rain!! WTF!? my lawn resembles a desert scene from Ice Cold in Alex :-(

JK been doing a bit of statistical analysis this morning and I'm going to tweak my Q2 predictions. Unfortunately so far Q2's have always been lower than Q1's, so I think we will be less than 13600T, unless we break that trend. I'm hopeful of beating 2017 Q2 so more than 10500, so I'll go for inbetween at circa 12000 T.

PMI uptick... bloody phone

Picked up again today, along with manufacturing PMI prick the other day, smells like a possible interest rate hike in Aug to me. I topped up today at 250p.... typically it fell through to 249p as soon as I did.

Hey JK, I think averages are one thing, but big swings are never ideal in agriculture, and there are a couple of big swings in there..... That said as you've pointed out the totals are pretty close to average so this is why I believe the Q2's will be okish and not cataclysmic.... however as ive stated numerous times, this is my first stab at data collation and estimating so the acid test is in a few weeks.

here's updated figures to include most of the quarter.

***************AVG****ACTUAL
07/04/2018 20.6****9.2
22/04/2018 22.9****38.9
13/05/2018 30.0****64.1
20/05/2018 40.5****30.4
27/05/2018 46.2****63.3
03/06/2018 52.3****20.7
10/06/2018 56.5****18.8
17/06/2018 57.4****24.9
24/06/2018 54.1****80.0
01/07/2018 47.2****87.3

Essentially, mostly looked above average rain, except a 1 week blip in May, and a 3 week blip in June. The 3 week blip in June was supposed to be the peak rain part of the season - however we seem to have made up for it in latter part of June. Make of that what you will.

Nuts and bolts of it are of the 10 weeks of data, 5 are above average and 3 are what I would consider to be significantly below, 2 slightly below but close enough to average that id consider them avg.

Formatting didnt work too well- first number is AVG, 2nd is ACTUAL. it's obvious I haven't been as on the ball as I should have and missed some weeks, I will obtain every week in the future where possible. Headline is start of Q2 was slightly above AVG, it then fell to below AVG mid Q2 then above AVG in the back end. *CAVEAT this is purely for Aboisso, it's about 10 miles from Ayenouan

I have attached the rainfall data I have obtained so far for Q2 - from this point onwards I will be collating every weeks data, and graphing actual v's expected weekly avg. I will release the data after near the end of each quarter in the future.
AVG (mm) ACTUAL (mm)
22/04/2018 22.9 38.9
17/05/2018 40.5 30.4
10/06/2018 56.5 18.8
24/06/2018 54.1 80.0
01/07/2018 47.2 87.3

hope the formatting of that comes out OK on this website.

To be fair rainbow the ADVFN DKL chat room is anything but shorters from my experience. I would say it's pretty balanced like here. I think it would be fair to say we shouldn't be expecting record Q2's!! ..... i still think they should be better than 2017 Q2 though based on the weather I've seen and we don't have the minus 4-5 k T mill impact.

Looks like Cantor are exoecting low fruit yields to penetrate into Q2 (see rivaldos link on ADVFN). I'm still hopeful of beating 2017 Q2's without the Mill mishaps and as weather hasn't seemed as dry as Q1's to me..... maybe blind hope though.

Unfortunately the telecon is not real time interactive FK, all questions had to be emailed last week. There is no conversation per se, more of a monologue