Member Info for philpot1001

I took a different tack And I've been drip feeding Into high divi blue chips which have taken a beating after trumps diatribes, hoping they recover once he shuts his fat trap..... time will tell lol ;0) .... it's all a shooting gallery at the minute TBH. I'll keep an eye on the next set of results here although I'm now heavily burnt from AIM shares, so I'm more reluctant with them. I'll personally stick with dipping my toes in from now on I think rather than jumping in waist deep again as I'm quite risk averse I think.

Just stuck my head in here to see how it's going for you guys.... Bermo, if you go to the AGM I wouldn't worry about it being prior to half year results, I think you have plenty of ammunition with the last set of results!!! I would try and find out where all that money went, seeing as though there was no real AJE development as far as I could tell (maybe fixing the shut in?) GL!!

Let us know your thoughts on the cashew side when you've come to conclusions.

I've also wondered why don't Indonesia etc see this trend? Or do they? I read an article that says those countries use a modern hybrid form of plant (like the type being delivered from our nurserys), so I'm guessing they are more resistant to this cycling. Ivory Coast does tend to have less modern palms planted with lower yields (seemingly less consistent too).

Good questions redroy, I've asked myself the same things..... my conclusions: the stress cycle apparently follows high yields, the high yields are probably caused by perfect weather (hence why the offset with the west - slightly different climate which I've noticed when monitoring rainfall data). It did explain why every palm me aboisso has followed the trend. That said, I'm not claiming it's conclusive by any means. If it was that Guitry could become a good hedge, as it's more central the climate is slightly different so my guess is will behave slightly differently and have different peaks and troughs. Same comment for the cashew location which is even more central.

This used to be a Lloyds forum, it then became a Brexit forum.... it's now a right wing ranting debacle.

I guess what I'm Basically trying to convey in a garbled way is, I had thought the reserves were empty after Dec 17.... but they seemingly still had a decent amount, so although the production figs in 2018-2019 might not be great, the revenues could still be reasonable given they seemingly had 1.3M in storage to sell (assuming I'm reading that correctly)

PS I'm not in anyway saying there's an anomaly - I haven't tracked the numbers with any kind of accuracy to be able to make that statement..... was just slightly surprised to see high inventory numbers as I thought it had been emptied

Hey DB yeah it's the final results I'm looking at, for some reason I got it Into my head the drawn down occurred during latter periods of Dec 16 - Dec 17? If the draw down occurred in Q1 2018 they did well with the profits for the last annual period as production wasn't too hot .also if thats the case, those profits from selling the storage will show up on 2018 full results which is a good thing seeing the production figures so far!

Just going over the figures from the final results, it says 775k euros in cash, 1.369 M euros inventory and 319k euros receivables......but I thought they had emptied the storage tanks? What inventory is there worth that much? sorry for being a bit dim on this.

We can't read too much into comparisons yet DB, were only half way through the year. The one crumb of comfort at present is last time we had a h1 this poor (2015) the H2 was a record holding production. ..... here's hoping, but we can't guarantee that's a trend.

Completely agree about the full capacity - it's THE issue here. Problem is, how, other than what they have been doing? they have been selling saplings from the nursery for about 3 years now (from memory) and we're back to annual prod figs from 2015 (most likely)....the unfortunate truth is we're on a waiting game for those plants to mature and not much we can do about it IMO

Sorry "weak harvests"

Hey CJ my opinion ( feel free to shoot it down) is we were priced based on DKLs own projections of high EBITDA. This gave us latitude to be priced at high multiples of EBIT. while we were showing continual record harvests it all held together and SP looked good (ish). With the past week harvests, for me the projected EBITDAs of circa 20m euro look over egged, and hence we've fallen back to more like 4 x EBIT (indicating a more stable rather than fast growing company, stable big boys with minimal growth are usually priced circa 3 x factors). My guess is investors are holding back until an uptrend in harvests is seen again indicating high EBITDAs are possible which would send us back to high multiples. But that's just my opinion, as usual WTFDIK.

Tis true the SP's move disproportionatly, the sales today are a tiny fraction of MCAP, but it's nothing new. Mm's price the SP based on supply demand ratios not % of MCAP (rightly or wrongly). If it was % MCAP the numbers would barely move.

I'm not sure stagecoach - i've changed my mind over night, I think they will still go with the Aug rate rise (just)....thereafter depends on Brexit outcome, any mutual deal and I think a good few rises will follow, a no deal and prob wont be seeing rate rises for a pretty long time - maybe even rate drops.

Not sure about conspiracies CJ, 10 grand of sales and 5500 of buys speaks for itself I think.

I would agree extrapolating H2 figs from 3 weeks is folley, should be a reasonable indicator for Q3 though I think..... hopefully lol ;)

Cheers Rugs!!!!

It would be ideal if we could get clear direction on why the harvests have been poor, but TBH I'm not convinced people actually know. It's certainly a steep learning curve for all involved including management as well as investors. I certainly believe diversifying and spreading risk with the cashew investment is a good idea (proviso the cashew crops do OK while the palms are not - anyone got any evidence on cashew harvests ATM?)