Member Info for philpot1001

Ps FWIW I don't see the drama if the divi in 2019 is held back, dividends should only be paid out of serviceable profits, if they haven't quite made the grade then it's prudent not to pay it IMO. Anyhoo, for now it's safe .... let's just hope for those bumper Q3 and Q4's. Regarding RI / placing hmmm not sure, I know where you're coming from but my gut tells me that prob won't happen as I don't think even this year it will get that bad.... especially if this is a temporary blip downwards rather than a permanent free fall of production.

Hey peterson, interesting analysis..pretty much same conclusions as myself. I believe divi this year is safe and declared in RNS (yet to be allocated though), but I think they year after is looking on a knife edge IMO unless bumper Q3 and Q4 harvests / CPO increases. However like you I don't see the risk regarding going bust, I think that's melodrama

Yeah I topped up with lloyds instead yesterday lol. Dang.

+9% here now in a day! That's a rocket

...as there is still no RNS here, this seems a pretty reasonable breakdown of results:

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/6124721/Galliford-Try-profits-more-than-doubles-on-track-to-deliver-on-strategic-targets

struggling to find the results, as no RNS on LSE, and couldn't see them on GFRD website (prob looking in wrong place).

From what I can see in the news looks like pretty good non construction results - cant see much detail on the construction front, seems like a further hit on AWPR ? Be good to get that monkey off our back.

Full year dividend of 77p is pretty tasty if that's correct?

I think the lack of AGM and Divi announcement is really starting to bite and pressure small PI's here out the back door. Very frustrating.

FWIW I topped up at 59.2p.... obviously it will now collapse

Yes Snige, that 3000 was a fly in the ointment, but to me the trend is finally looking positive... long may it continue

Surely that data must be good for banks and sterling? In the very least it justifies the recent rate rise, possibly a further rise this year if it continues.

*EDIT remove "no they" .... bloody phone, can't wait to bin it.

RR had a look at my data, please note I only have 6 months worth of averages right now, however it's pretty clear we will be below 150mm no they avg spread over the year. I've done a bit of extrapolating, and I make it closer to 100mm / month avg. There's quite a possible spread on that number as I've had to extrapolate.

Hey RR, as an annual monthly average we won't ever see 150mm IMO, the avg graph only see that during peak Q2 as far as I can tell.... Q3 and Q4 will drag the avg down quite a bit I think..... I don't have the full annual avg weekly data yet, but enough to see trends. When I'm back in the office, I'll do some extrapolation and calculate what I think the avg monthly fall will be over a year.

one final comment RR, your 150mm avg ideal will never be seen in Q3 or Q4 - they are off season quarters, hence the lower production figures typically seen. FWIW, its looking wetter than average at the minute on a monthly average basis, but there have been some dry spells. What it means in terms of production is anyone's guess at the mo.

sorry that data line on 26th Aug shouldn't be on there - I don't have that data as yet

putting a bit of context on it, with a sample of the numbers

**********************RAINFALL (mm)******************
*****************AVG*******ACTUAL******DELTA
08/07/2018**38.1**********34********-4.1
29/07/2018**13**********1.4********-11.6
12/08/2018**12**********1.6********-10.4
29/07/2016**12.4**********67.8********+55.4
26/08/2018

the average moves per month, I haven't been up to date fully, but early in the quarter we were on average, it then dropped below avg for a couple of weeks, and recently its been significantly above avg.............its worth noting the avg this time of year is pretty low!! Like 10-20mm!! So being above or below it is a little meaningless IMO, although a couple of weeks ago they had 65mm which % wise is a large amount greater than avg.

Read into that what you will. I will post full breakdowns nearer to end of Q3.

I'm potentially looking to average down, however i'm personally waiting on Q3 numbers first to see if things turn around before I increase my holding.

famous last words Rugs - that 47 quid trade just broke the bid to 4.7p lol

thanks RR

Anyone else seen the "Local CPO Price" link on the DKL website? Its directly under the SP ticker.....I clicked on it as I know there has been a lot of debate about what DKL actually achieve, but the link takes you to a Abdijan commodity magazine website in French, I couldn't see CPO on it. Might be worth someone who's proficient in French taking a shufty.