Member Info for philpot1001

Ps for clarity when I say "beating That" I'm referring to the 2017 year totals

FK put simply weather patterns will determine where the bottom to this downtrend will be IMO.... my focus is on analysing that data, although it's not easy as data is sparse. IMO if the Q2's are greater than 14k tonne we have a fighting chance of beating 2017 figs, that's the key benchmark now, if we look like beating that I think the bottom has occured. Hold tight peeps, should know in 3 weeks ish.

based on hl.co.uk information, the total shares in circulation are 299.01 million, so based on 500 grand distribution that equates to 0.167p per share, slightly less than last year - but for me it only changes things by a few quid.

I'm out folks. I've crystallized a hefty loss here, but when I come to calculate the results and the loss I come up with is SIX times less than the actual, I have to admit defeat and that I truly don't know what's going on here. I'm not sure anyone does. If I have no way of understanding the company for me it's not investible. I genuinely hope it turns around for the rest of You, I've enjoyed the chats and banter on here. Got my fingers crossed for you all.... I "may" get back in if the interims start reflecting my calcs

Well there certainly were a few weeks below the avg rainfall, so I guess that could have an impact..... the past couple of weeks have been essentially perfect, slightly higher than avg with lots of sunshine. The cocoa farmers are excited (however their peak season is later. If it keeps up I would expect a good Q3.... although that doesn't offset a poor Q2..... I'm still hopeful the Q2s aren't cataclysmic.... certainly Q1s were very dry, as far as I can tell Q2 shouldn't be as bad as that.

I've been keeping an eye on the rain fall stats for Abiosso for the past couple of months (nearest data point I can get). Its been a bit erratic, some weeks drier than the avg, some wetter, which I think should average out about normal.....I personally am making the guess the Q2's will be fairly normal, I don't think its been an onerous dry period, then again its not been exceptional as far as I can tell. In theory if the yields are about avg, with the increased mill capacity, it should be quite a bit greater than 2017 Q2......that for me makes these prices super low.

*CAVEAT, this estimate is based on seemingly erratic weather data, and its my first attempt at making a prediction using the data, so I don't know how accurate the prediction will be.

Priced for poor Q2.....Q3 and Q4 at these levels lol .

Coincidentally I drove passed the site today, all works have ceased and even the galliford try signs that were pitched up have been take down.... I did wonder what on earth was going on

Actually my numbers there were a bit off as I included some buys from yesterday and missed off some sells. It's still in favour of buying today.... at present!!!!

Bear in mind DB we've had nearly 15k buys and only about 3k sells. It's still massively in favour of buys.

It's making repeated attacks on 220p, at some point its either going to break or give up. I think once the profit takers are rinsed out who got in low 200's it "should" move up another leg.

I would probably say the SP currently prices in a poor Q2.... at least I would hope so lol

As ever Total quarterly's will be weather dependant.... Lincoln pretty well said as much in these results. Everyone do your rain dance!

conference call on 2nd July with muted lines, but you can send questions to shareholderenquiries@stbridespartners.co.uk

only briefly seen them but looks good to me, better than I was personally expecting, although a couple of the other experts on here called it. Increase in profit and EBIDTA, divi maintained.

is nearing 80 bucks again - and we are scraping the Barrel.

In fairness rainbow DKL have come a long way in a short period of time. OK the SP has been hammered, but that aside let's not forget it's churning a decent enough profit to dish out dividend and have enough left over for expansion. We should shortly know just how much profit for the last year. With this kind of company in it's infancy, expansion is normally a prerequisite.....Although I'm personally more in favour of organic expansion rather than by acquisition, but I guess I'm conservative like that. Each has it's own merits / down side.

When I looked at the numbers Bermo during Dec 16-dec17 there was a 500,000 loss.... coincidence ? Smells like a duck etc, so I think it's to do with that. ....We shall soon know

Airbus manufactures wings in China essentially as an agreement so that the Chinese will buy x billion euros worth of aircraft.

Although I have no direct evidence its my guess the Boeing site in Sheffield is a manufacturing site intended to service purely UK operators.... it's highly unlikely a site with 30 people is manufacturing actuators for world wide consumption.... in which case any arguments on trade tariffs is irrelevant. They wouldn't be exporting the goods.