Member Info for philpot1001

Looks like those trades notated as sells this morning were buys and it's pushed the ask back up to mid 7's.

Ok poor choice of words, you get my drift though. I personally expected an upwards momentum rather than a downwards one. Hopefully the sellers have been rinsed out and we can move onwards again.

Still can't understand how yesterday's RNS triggered a fire sale. Especially when the plans of drilling an AJE7 horizontal well in 2019 is in the plans on the .ppt released months ago, so was open knowledge..... and we now have a potential corrective action to enable massive flow increases on AJE4&5 down the line!! Bonkers.

Also as usual *caveat.... WTFDIK

Hmmm interesting one.... from what I've seen in the press so far, the "experts" are saying even if worst case scenario happens it will have a small impact in global growth.... That said the share markets are certainly reacting to it. In the end I think impacts on global growth would be what matters.... for me, i'd probably say a slight headwind to POO, but who knows...... I think a bigger concern is the OPEC production and also the USA production rates. Looks like Iran is trying to veto prod increases in OPEC (prob trying to **** off the yanks as much as anything, who are pressuring Saudi to increase)

Lol all IMO of course....essentially from my perspective if POO falls below 60 bucks at the moment with 2 wells and a high OPEX we are at risk.... if we can get another well online, especially a horizontal one our OPEX comes crashing down and we would probably be safe down to 45 bucks for POO. So it's a race against time to lower our OPEX IMO.

No chance gfb, we need every penny of profit to develop the field while POO is so high! Once we have another well or two we are set and will never need to dilute again.... that's the key here, minimise the risk.

It's strange... I would love to hear from someone who sold today for their reasoning. Either way, I'm more convinced than ever about the investment here now it's possible to ratchet the flow rates up.

One more thing to add, I don't think this RNS will notably affect the 2018 numbers, in all likelihood it's going to be 2019 before the well near AJE6 is drilled (Ref. Presentation). Best guess is mid 2019 for That, so I reckon we could potentially see additional 5000 bopbd by mid 2019. I think they would then subsequently look at modifying AJE4&5 to horizontal, and at the same time look at starting the gas integration roughly 2020 .... the numbers look tasty if they can get that 5000 bopd from each horizontal.

Although according to the plan that's not likely to be before 2021, being realistic and knowing projects shift to the right, say 2022/2023.

Cheers Jim, sounds like they will rip as much hardware off AJE6 as possible to help still and build AJE7(?). I would still like to have known why AJE6 can't just be used..... but maybe they didn't even get to drill it, it's maybe just infrastructure and hardware sat around. Who knows. Ps Jim, if they complete the full 9 wells, and say 2/3rds of them are horizontal at the 5000 bopd, I think the numbers could even be greater than your estimates! (Caveat, the company would have debt to get that far, but I dont see that particularly as an issue). I could see an argument near the optimistic side, for near 20million / year profit ( if the full suite of 9 wells were drilled and POO was above 75 dollars, and OPEX was reduced to near 10 dollars / barrel )

I'm still a bit confused about AJE6. the RNS says drilling a NEW well NEAR AJE6. What not just mod AJE6? are they just going to take the AJE6 hardware and use it on this new Well? Does leave some unanswered questions I guess we won't know until after the simulations.

Am I being totally stupid here? What am I missing? I saw this as very good news as the flow rates can be ramped?

and yet people are still selling at rock bottom.

So basically the oil revenues are sky high (probable 127 MMBOE, potentially 215 MMBOE from CPR), and there is now estimated capacity of 5000 BOE / day from each well if extended to horizontal. The plan in the .ppt shows 9 wells total (although some of those will be either pure gas or combo oil / gas). Increased flow rates will significantly lower our OPEX. Do the math. This is worth a shed load. my only question is a) how long to turn AJE6 into a horizontal well and how much, and b) same question for AJE4 & 5. Sounds like they are going to attack AJE6 first, then come back to 4&5 after, but that's reading between the lines and we wont know for about 3 months or so until the simulations are complete. Most happy that I now understand why the current wells are down at 1800 bopd. Reckon my patience here should pay off.

Whole loada 50k share bundles just gone through pushed us up nicely. Fingers crossed dumped dude stays away

That said, who's to say what they are doing in 2018!? They could well now be waiting until its filled before lifting, as usual it's guesswork. Would it be more efficient financially to lift at capacity (less tanker visits)?

Well 50%+ drops are normally the reserve of companies nearing going bust in FTSE, so my gut feel is this is way overdone.... that said, this is AIM so high risk, and it's actually seemingly common from what I can tell. Not that any of that particularly helps lol.

Sorry "kentan" .... stupid phone

Kenyan judging on the liftings last year they probably weren't waiting until puffin was filled before lifting. It seemed to be set around every 3 months from memory