RE: YIELD CALCS31 May 2018 11:50
TBH I think DKLs strategy works very well when times are good, but having hundreds of different suppliers limits your ability to mitigate tough environmental times such as drought. Old TT alluded to it, I.e. if you own a huge field you can arrange irrigation, if there are hundreds of small suppliers they prob can't irrigate (?). I think the best mitigation is to stockpile when the goings good - which is basically what they have done......now they have increased throughput capacity, what we really need is a few good quarters strung together to restock the stockpiles (hopefully larger stockpiles this time due to higher throughput).... but that's kind of in the lap of the weather gods. Q2 looks like it's potentially better from weather data I can gather ATM.... I'll keep an eye on it. I'm hoping to be able to come up with a reasonable prediction model based on cocoa farmers weather comments.... time will tell whether it works or not.