Member Info for philpot1001

I think ATM as far as I can tell the farmer consensus regarding cocoa in our region is yields for Q2 look good , but they are slightly concerned about the recent heavy rain. Hopefully Palm oil yields are also reflected and looking good, and fingers crossed the heavy rain either subsides OR palm oil yields are more resilient to it.

There have been some articles this last quarter about cocoa yields in IC... essentially in month 4 western IC suffered low rain, however South eastern IC was good. Month 5 western IC was ok, South Easter IC apparently had heavy rain. Basically in our region so far it's been average / heavy rain according to farmers.... mind You, I've not seen this reflected in the rainfall data yet (maybe will show up next week or so). Also it's unclear how heavy rain affects palm yields, cocoa is seemingly negatively affected. I'm hoping at some point to get some kind of correlation to help predict yields before they are announced, but ATM nothing sticks out.

I've been spending some time trying to get technical, and figure out why the yields have seemingly dropped last year or so. Done some research, and mostly it seems drought, secondary is pest and a potential unknown is flooding (Ref. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1161030116302131). Checked the rainfall over the past 10 years at the nearest local town with records (Aboisso) (Ref. https://www.worldweatheronline.com/aboisso-weather-averages/sud-comoe/ci.aspx), but TBH it doesn't look as though last year was anything untoward. TBH it seems to me as though since 2011, its been pretty consistent rainfall (there were huge spikes pre 2011, but we have no production data for DKL then). In short, at the mo, i'm coming up short attempting to pin it down to an environmental parameter. Any experts, feel free to chip in! Maybe my data sources on rainfall are lacking?

I personally hope the govt hold off selling until the SP hits low 300's as with lloyds the sell off seemingly hemmed the SP in for an age (mind you it hasn't faired much better afterwards to be fair).

Anyone privy to the AGM? SP is down over past hour, AGM related?

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/167771/bt-shares-wont-drop-dividend-say-analysts.aspx

You think it's bad here avro, check out RBS!

.............sorry, 90 dollars by 2020.....suits me though as im planning on staying in until phase 3 (with the caveat the production is self sustaining, and further dilution risks are minimal)

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/24/oil-prices-set-to-soar-ahead-of-shipping-revolution.html

Avrohom chuck in some shampoo with his deal and I'll agree ;) ...... although I'm still not sure about the 1.3p.

Agreed. Phase 2 which we now know is oil well based is due to start in 2019 according to the ppt, most likely waiting until they have the profit to pay towards it (?).... however AJE6 from our understanding is mostly paid for. I appreciate there may be specialist input to wait for before drilling, hopefully not too long though. Fingers crossed SO informs us soon of expected ETA for AJE6 flows in his upcoming videos and guff.

i wouldn't give him a 1.3 pence bonus.

Cheers Bermo that makes sense and ties in with my figures. I almost allowed myself to get excited there for a minute too LMAO. It just means we are waiting until they trigger AJE6 or drill new wells before we see really exciting numbers. Game of patience as ever. At least we are more than holding our own at 80 bucks a Barrel.

Yeah agreed Jim..... honestly, I think these numbers in PEN statement are BEFORE OPEX..... the sums then add up. I make their revenue before OPEX 3.8mUSD..... essentially what they are quoting. Sorry for peeing on the bonfire haha ;)

3300 x 5% = 165 barrels / day 165 x 365 x 80 = 4,818,000 USD / year revenue OPEX = 165 x 365 x 40 = 2,409,000 USD Net revenue after OPEX (gross profit) = 2,409,000 USD (or circa 1.8m sterling) The net profit is that minus approx 1m sterling. Only way u can see 3.75m USD after OPEX is either higher flow or lower OPEX

I'll be MORE than happy to be proved wrong but I just fail to see how 3300 bopd at an OPEX of 40 dollars a Barrel translates into 3.75m after OPEX

im still pretty certain our gross profit before admin expenses for 2018 will be near 1.5-2.0 mUSD after OPEX costs

just looked at it again, and im almost certain the >3mUSD PEN are quoting does NOT include the cost of OPEX, so that's not the gross profit IMO, and the actual take home will be significantly less. Its the only thing that makes sense to me.

that implies the flow rates are significantly higher than 3300 bopd then does it not? fair play, WTF is going on lol? If we are understanding that correctly, and MXO have just banked 1.25m after OPEX costs for the first 4 months, that implies to me at 80 dollars a barrel the actual flow rate would be nearer 6200 bopd if the OPEX is 40 dollars/barrel? But the press releases are adamant the flow rate is 3300 bopd? im seriously confused? the only conclusion I can come up with is the cost per barrel must be significantly less than 40 dollars / barrel. comments anyone?

HP you are also correct, its 5% not 6%, so ive been slightly over estimating on my previous calculations. incidentally I found this on the website regarding development - essentially phase 2 will be oil dominated to increase flow rates...........phase 3 will be gas The Government of Nigeria approved the Aje Field Development Plan ("FDP") in March 2014 and by October 2014, the Final Investment Decision ('FID') for the project was agreed. The FDP involves a three phase development programme. Phase 1 will focus on the Aje Cenomanian oil reservoir and include the tie-back of two existing subsea wells and a leased Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessel ("FPSO"). Phase 1 production commenced in May 2016. The planning for Phase 2 is now underway and will see additional wells drilled in order to increase total Cenomanian oil production. Phase 3 will target the development of the Turonian gas condensate reservoir.