Member Info for philpot1001

I have a few grand in at 1910, not selling those as its pointless now, I also have a couple of grand in at 1625, when it got to 1670 ish, I was on a knife edge about selling as I was expecting further losses to come, but bottled it.. TBH at the time I didn't see sub 1500 coming, had I predicted that I would have been well out, I thought 1580 at lowest. I guess its a question of where the trough is, if you had a crystal ball and could see 1350 or lower, then yep def worth getting out now.....circa 1500 - 1450, for my stakes, its prob not worth getting out.....wheres the bottom? Who knows, im guessing recovery will be around Q2 2016, but its all semi educated guess work lol. If you do sell I it will be interesting to see how you get on, just to see how the different strategies work out in practise.

im not selling, primarily as im on a bit of a loss at the moment anyway. My opinion on the matter is sit tight, then if things start to look better at any time......BUY BUY BUY! Weve discussed this in the past but I can easily see values of 1450 down the line - although as I have also stated previously, in my opinion, based on market over reactions to China, not real valuations.

Shell announced that they have ceased drilling off the coast of Alaska due to poor results, they are going to take a financial hit as a result. Not sure how much though.

putting all your eggs into one basket is always risky - i'm actually party to this at the moment, with a heavily oil based portfolio, that said only 5% of my savings are in stocks, the rest is in property or savings accounts. So im mitigated to some degree. I worked with someone who was in a mining frenzy, talked about zinc mines every day etc.....needless to say it all went tits up, and he very nearly lost the shirt off his back, luckily for him his particular shares had a minor bounce and he got out just about even. My viewpoint on stocks is much like my view on love when I was a teenager.....spread it about as much as possible.

Brent is actually down a bit today Jollyspeculator when I just checked , which may in part explain any falls

http://invezz.com/news/equities/20355-Shell-share-price-Aussie-shadow-minister-backs-BG-tie-up at least one ozzie MP is in favour of the merger deal

where she stops nobody knows.....I wouldn't bet against sub 1500 valuations arising at some point in this climate! Although I personally do think the negative aspects of what's going on globally have been MASSIVELY exaggerated, at the end of the day OK China isn't growing at 9% - but its still growing at 7%!! USA and Eurozone are ramping up! Chillax everyone lol ;o)

....and the rollercoaster is on the way back up! Congrats Nuclear for filling your pockets ;) if only I had the spare cash to gamble with!......Although I suspect we haven't seen the last of the troughs.

yes i'm the same, I currently have my entire portfolio in Aerospace, oil and gas or palm oil, which are all dependant upon the price of crude to some level. I recently got out of the banks, however may be tempted to get back in depending on what happens with Plevin. Mind you, current dividend rates of 7.7 % from RDSB and BP are untouchable anywhere else!!!!!! As soon as demand for oil increases slightly and the arab states even slightly reduce their output the price will bounce quite heavily....in my opinon

Agreed it will just defer Shale, seems like totally illogical behaviour on part of the Saudi's, but that's their prerogative I suppose. On the plus side, if this did play out as a cyclic event with shale repeatedly kicking off, there's potentially a lot of money to be made on a rollercoaster. Yield rate is 7.7% now!!!! Yikes

nosedive anyone? lol. Got greedy the other day when it was up at 1660 and decided not to sell (with marginal profit). Boy, do I wish I had sold now! Where is the next trough I wonder!?

depends on how big your cohonez are! If you want to take the gamble that the merger will go through I think BG are still the cheapest (although as ValueMB said the divide is shrinking). Personally I agree about the trough, I think there will be further short term falls, but i'm still hopeful of a recovery mid 2016 - with the theory the trough should be self limiting passed a certain point (i.e. the breakeven point for wells, which I understand is circa $45/50 for most wells, maybe a bit lower now they have trimmed the fat). So after that point they will start going out of business, therefore reducing supply and re-raising the crude price.....although who knows, maybe it will all go to pot.

found the nominal figures - GS are predicting $40 / barrel crude and $46 / Brent for average 2016 prices - again this is nominal. I think that most of us would agree those are sensible numbers. Although i'm hoping personally to see some recovery in 2016.

scratch those GS nominal figures I quoted, those were from memory and could be erroneous, however the point about the $20 being highly unlikely, just an extreme possibility remains.

I think these figures being banded around of $20 need to be taken into context, they aren't the nominal figure Goldman are predicting, they are the absolute worst case, with everything that can go wrong, going wrong. Their nominal figures are somewhere more inline with a trough of $35-40 / barrel.

sorry - bearing in "mind"

I was hoping to see a short term spike from the market response, but its gone the other way - quite markedly. I do agree though that a lower rate in USA should help, but bearing in my its not a reduction, just status quo im not sure it will give a SP "rise"?

Any thoughts on the delay the Ozzies are putting on the merger, any risks of derailing it? I personally think its probably unlikely, but its a risk nonetheless

shows what I know! After weeks of traders waffling on about how they are nervous about interest rate hikes, FED holds off and the market crashes lmao, some people are never happy!