Member Info for philpot1001

Yeah saw this earlier on BBC, now kicking myself I didn't sell at ~ 745 when I was sat in profit. Guess I'm back to being stuck with paper losses for a while. Dang

gold potential target price between $1300 - 1450 http://gulfnews.com/business/gold-rate/brexit-s-impact-on-gold-will-prices-hit-1-400-1.1852714

SP has less to do with results at the moment, its more driven by the price of crude which is dropping like a stone.

I'm perhaps also a classic case of maybe over analysing the data, sometimes stocks and shares don't follow any logic in the short term, and are driven by sentiment. I've certainly missed out on some of these recent upwards trends. That said, I think in the end the long term most do bend to the fundamentals......the question is will the stockpiles start coming down (or even slowing!) before the "party time" philosophy wears out.

the crude figures weren't what had be spooked - it was the TOTAL inventory which rose by 5.3 million! TBH apart from an initial panic it doesn't seem to have affected the POO........"NO" inventory numbers do, the price of oil has now become completely detached from the stockpile figures and purely related to the value of the dollar as far as I can tell. As long as the dollar keep falling the POO will probably keep rising...........however, my opinion is as soon as the dollar starts going up, people will start heeding the stockpiles and all hell will break loose. Bear in mind the although the crude piles only went up by 2 mill, they are now over 540 mill barrels - that's the highest its EVER been! .........and if you plot the graphs, its not showing any signs of slowing either! How can that be good fundamentals! but like I say for now the oil rise seems unstoppable - if somewhat illogical

sorry peeps, im out again (made a very minor profit).....the EIA figures look pretty bad, so the API figures were misleading. Im afraid the oil recovery is looking like its on hold again - in my opinion anyway. There will certainly be a short term drop from this, but whether there is a near term bounce, dunno, you pays your money you takes your choice. GLA

FWIW, I bought into some stocks first thing this morning. The API figures showing a drop in stock piles yesterday threw a curve ball, and in combination with the likely outcome of the FED announcement and weakening dollar, looks like commodities are rallying at the moment.....how long will it last? Who knows, im keeping one eye on the EIA figures this afternoon - if they support the API figures we could see a serious spike in oil price......if they are conflicting, its likely it will come back down to earth.

difficult to tell where the markets are going at the moment pre FED rate announcements tomorrow.....if they drop significantly today and tomorrow, I guess they are effectively pricing in expectations of a rate rise (at least in part), if not they are ignoring it and expect it to come later. looking reasonably flat (bit chaotic).......FWIW I would estimate the next rate rise will happen later on, june / july? Either way keep an eye on the announcement tomorrow......if you are keen on buying at the mo, I reckon tomorrow morning is probably your best bet as its likely to have dropped 1-2% - assuming the FED rise doesn't happen of course, as it will probably nose dive a bit if they do hike it up.

Actually that is a fair call. There are quite a few investors here who are probably "trapped" in way above £18, but at the end of the day they are probably getting ~7% return, and as long as you don't liquidate the shares at a loss point 7% is an excellent return. I only cashed out as I was at 22% profit margin, and could afford to take the gamble things would tumble.....if they don't, I still made 22% over 6 months so its a win win for me.

its worthwhile me stating that's just my opinion, and I could very well turn out to be wrong! sometimes the market place is driven my sentiment rather than fact! As always, do your own research and take your own risks!

im certainly no more intelligent than anyone else on this forum, prob have different opinions on the direction of the POO though. All I will say is the stockpiles have been continuously increasing over the last 6 months, the only reason for increases in the POO since Jan were the rumours about the OPEC / non OPEC agreement - which never happened. Russia have declared they are increasing production, its well known Iran are, and now its looking like the Saudis are also doing likewise. Its true the US oil rig count is dropping, but its had no effect on the US stockpiles at all so far......last weeks data showed a drop in total gas products, but it was a 0.4 mil barrel drop against a stockpile of 2058.6 mil barrels! that's a 0.019% drop! that's so negligible its well within statistical tolerances......if we start getting consistent drops in the total stockpile of even crude stockpile then start popping the champers corks......for me im sitting on the sidelines until this plays out.

I looked over the EIA figures in more detail last night, and I kind of see where the spike in POO came from now: Although crude inventory rose to an all time high, the distillate usage went up and the net offset was a reduction of 0,4 mill barrels of TOTAL inventory. First time it reduced in 6 months.......although I have to say it was only a "technical" reduction in reality, 0.4 mb is nothing - for me its a market over reaction sending brent all the way up to $46. Im holding off buying in, if I see another couple of weeks of positive data like that ill jump in, but my guess is next EIA figures will just show same as usual and an increase in inventory.

Well the binning of the output freeze didn't affect things - although the mantra for the past 3 months has been the rise is due to the possibility of an output freeze the end of the Kuwait strike doesn't affect things figures are pretty much back to where they were despite an initial fall. the latest EIA figures show a 2.1 million barrel increase and an all time high stock level....and that's caused a rise in POO (as its not quite as bad as they were expecting).....the worlds gone mad rofl.

Kuwait are back at work. so I guess we'll see just how much that has been propping up the market?

use AJ Bell (you invest) and they are pretty good, think its £9 a trade if you only do a few / month, but goes down to £5 a trade if you do a lot......regarding stop loss trading, bear in mind it only works in certain instances. I got caught out the other day where I put my last remaining RDSB on a stop loss between 1810 - 1790, but the trading started at 1780 so it didn't trigger. Might be teaching my grandmother to suck eggs here, but its something I only just realised, so thought id bring it up

I think the Kuwait strike has been propping up the oil market quite a bit - although in my opinion falsely as a) they have enough stockpiled to keep up the 3m bpd export up, and b) its unlikely to last long. Question is, will POO fall after the strike is sorted out, or keep rising? Seems to keep going up at the moment regardless of the world stockpiles. Russians declared today they are increasing production, mind you as far as I can tell only by circa 1-2%, hardly ground breaking. Im looking to buy back in, but no way im touching anything until either the fundamentals change and stockpiles start coming down, or the prices drop and start reflecting reality. although im sure a lot of people will disagree with me.

i have to admit I cashed out on Friday expecting the deal to fall on its face....which it did.....but apart from the initial blip, seems to have recovered. I may have made a mistake, time will tell I guess. I think the Kuwait strike could be adding temporary bullishness to the situation, but im still betting on POO failing further......but I have to admit im starting to question my stance, as the markets are SO bullish right now, even if we all start swimming in the stuff its possible the price may keep going up lol.

Lovely spike in SP as well now the FED has chilled on interest rates....wait and see what the stock pile levels are like after lunch though! Gulp.

yeah I'm with AJ Bell

got my divi today, 2.11%....Not bad for a quarterly!