Member Info for philpot1001

I stand corrected.....it didn't delete the calc haha

I just posted an method for calculating dividend and the fecking website messed it all up - then deleted my post. Cant be bothered doing it again. Essentially your figures are wrong, calculate the yield of dividend by calculating the number of shares you have then multiply that by 1.88/1.55 (exchange rate to sterling). The yield would then be (dividend / sum put on in pounds) *100 when SP was 1250, yield was 9.7%, it will be ~9.3% as it stands

calc is done (assuming exchange rate of 1.55 from dollar to pound), and assuming you put on 5 grand sterling 5000/(Share numbers *(1.88/1.55)) i.e. if you put on 5000 at 12.50 SP, you would get 400 shares, divi attained would be 485.16, and yield would be (485.16/5000)*100 = 9.7% As you can see the dollar exchange rate affects the calc

agreed JC15, but I think that point could be a good few months away yet. As soon as the non opecs cave there will be a bounce, but everyone is being stubborn on it at the mo'. The further it falls, the quicker on opecs will cave and the bounce will happen, so I personally think the whole deal could be sorted if they let it plummet in value......who knows, maybe that's what OPEC are trying to do?

If you do dip your toes in, your getting a cracking divi ~ 10%....that's unbeatable if its sustainable. Just reading the news looks like the reason the oil price has gone up is USA are expecting a cold snap!!! Seems a bit desperate to me. Cant see those gains holding if that's true.

personally I think this is a blip on the upward, the fundamentals haven't changed, oil is still being chugged out and over supply is at ridiculous levels........I can see the POO falling again, and keeping a downward trend for at least 3 months, if not longer. But in truth no one really knows.

especially if the BG bid goes through, as that will depress the SP

anyone up for guess work lol? TBH in my opinion, if nothing changes RE the oil output this year, we could see 800 / 900p. Naturally, if the non opec start to reduce, I think opec would follow suit and a rapid bounce could occur. Which scenario is more likely..........I don't think anything is going to change for next 6 months at least, I think that could see an SP of 1000p by june.

looks like the 1250 estimate was pretty close short term.....see if she settles. I still think there's more to drop afterwards if the oil producers keep up the shannigans. Sub 20$ for brent doesn't seem so outrageous now

Last year I was guessing things would pick up late 2016....now im not sure. Looks like no one is flinching yet about oil output, my feeling is it could be 2017 - 2018 before things pick up....which is of course again all guess work, and could be miles off.

1300 / 1250 is a safe bet as the next support level given the Iran effects, and the way the middle east stock markets have tumbled. Currently SP is holding its own, however I think this is temporary and a significant drop is looming.

They also bought a large tranche of RDSB shares - "seems" like they are hedging towards the merger not happening and a subsequent rise in RDSB SP? Seems unlikely to me though as the CEO seems dead set on the merger come what may

Article in todays Derby telegraph about rumours of the government looking at nationalising the nuclear section of RR marine, in case they ever decide to offload it......RR refused to make comment, personally as Warren has declared a reluctance to sell any of the business I take it with a pinch of salt.

Never thought I would see this SP! Be interesting to see what happens when the FED interest rates announced, if they don't raise it - all hell could break loose.

Price of crude is down similar %,. plus there is negative press about the merger deal and value for money

further job losses announced in order to make the merger profitable......how long until dividend cuts? (just conjecture rather than stirring). I had been estimating a predicted support price of $38/39 as a floor for the price of Brent, gone right through that, and not looking like showing any signs of stopping! Merry xmas from Saudi Arabia.

if things keep tracking the way they are and Brent gets down to low 30's / high 20's then I would say the dividend is at risk unless its a temporary blip (not looking likely at the moment with the Saudi's). That said I think that's a worst case scenario, my gut feel FWIW (not a lot) is that support will be found for Brent at circa $39 then a mild rise back to low $40's.....bear in mind the market always over reacts to bad news and it was only last Fri all the sh:t hit the fan with the OPEC announcement......although this situation does seem to keep repeating itself and the downward trend is undeniable.

not exactly sticking my neck on the line with the last comment......Twenties even possible??? Yikes!

seen $35 a barrel for Brent banded around as a possible marker, potentially possible I guess, seems to me that $40 is unlikely to be a sustainable barrier at the moment, so my money is on high thirties being likely.

current forecasts are for no oil recovery next year, possibly reductions in price.....any affect on the BG merger? Any thoughts? I've just bought some BG shares on the assumption the merger will still go ahead, time will tell I guess. would 1450 SP impact on the dividend for shell? Not sure, food for thought I guess