Member Info for philpot1001

PS That's highly dependant on Brent pricing, I think we can see 600 if Brent gets back to $48....if, if, if etc

really tricky to forecast - but I had it personally at 600, so ill go with 590 lol.

everything is up sharply today at the minute - unlikely to hold?

looking like 530 was a good call by whoever made that

Brent is up today (prob as a consequence of possible turmoil), so its more likely that this is causing a rise than any impending order book on military aero engines.

I predict a long term recovery from this bottom.....however "this bottom" may be slightly lower than where we are at presently depending on how the markets fluctuate over the next week. But I don't see sub 500, it may even start rising today.....who knows lol.

Understanding is needed of why the profits are being hit. a) price of crude is hammering the marine section, not much can be done about that, its reliant on OPEC essentially, as soon as that lifts the profits will climb and so will the SP. b) The aero section is in transition. Specifically T700 is being phased out and replaced with T7000 which will apparently come online around 2017.....the other transitions are TWXB and T1000 which are ramping up. It will take a while to sort out the aero transition, and my best guess on crude is that will take a year or two to resolve, once it does it will be a time of plenty again. I personally cant see crude going much lower, so this should be the bottom of the curve. In my opinion....

for me, with the order book they have, even with all the headwinds, lack of divi and price of Brent - I place this circa 600p.....If Brent picks up that will lift the price (although not as much as the petroleum companies as there will be a lag in benefits to RR from higher prices of crude)

nothing wrong with diversifying, as mentioned earlier, its probably healthy. Ive got my stuff spread around over 5 stocks pretty evenly. As for the RR SP, its going to be painful over the next year or so, no doubt! But I genuinely think things will improve significantly after 2016, product dev is maturing and should start giving profit after next 12 months or so...I would sit tight......but that's just my thoughts on it

Doesn't look like the American markets have changed the SP much - at the moment.

Sorry *Samlesbury*

Bit off topic, but hoping the improved sales figures at BAE start to bring back some good fortune at Salmesbury, I used to work there and know a few of them. Just a shame they had to bin off a few hundred of them if the figures are looking so good really. Im at Derby (at a sub tier supplier to RR) so got my fingers crossed its not going to be a blood bath on the projects front.

kept some powder dry though in case it dips back down into the 1500 territory

decided to get another tranche at 1603p

PS for what its worth, I get the feeling old Warren has massively over egged it today in order to save his own skin. At this point in time he can always finger point and blame the previous management, and if the SP drops to a position where its certain to gain, he will look like the hero. 2016 is going to be a rough ride, but assuming Brent picks up nr 2017, the A330 neo kicks off and Trent 7000 along side, things should look a lot rosier.

eye, but only as they are sacking another 300 odd people, not exactly great business sentiment. As usual the markets delight in redundancies and cost cutting. Expect to see more of the same from RR next year I guess.

jeez wheres the bottom for this one? Regretting buying in at 550 now lol. 25% drop is insane

I got another tranche at 550, see what happens now

Brent has tumbled a bit today as well, so RDSB is tracking that

bit of a Brent rise today and shell follows suit.....looks to me as though the RDSB - Brent scaling that was evident in September when it went down to 1550 has been broken, as with the price of Brent as it is ATM RDSB would have been around 1650. Looks like market sentiment has picked up for RDSB and is holding......possibly due to the traders being on holiday at the time and inexperienced traders being spooked? in which case I would be slightly surprised to see it fall back to sub 1600 mark (assuming Brent stays above $46).....although I wouldn't fall off my chair.