Member Info for philpot1001

Has this been posted yet? Australia approved BG the merger deal http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Industry/2015/12/03/Shell-BG-merger-cleared-by-Australian-regulator/4961449140177/ Is this the cause of the SP spike today?

im hoping for a 650 mark before February, which will give me a tidy profit margin on the tranche I bought after the mess just gone. I personally agree with Grayling and I think there is more profit warnings to come down the line (East indicated as much i think with statements about further "mud" in the system), so wouldn't be surprised to see a further drop post Feb at some point

looks like its going to settle at circa low 600 / high 500, which is fair enough!

thanks for that Grayling, very informative....a lot of it ties in with what I know about the business too i.e. selling the engines at almost cost. Will be interesting to see where it goes......do GE sell the engines at a large margin then?

....although I would say 700 is the upper range of where I see it getting to, reckon 650 comfortably though.

I estimated this at around 600 with a predicted 50% cut in dividend, as that's been moved (at least temporarily) reckon this could see 700 before the announcement in Feb regarding Divi

potentially it could just be benign details of what he has outlined this morning, not necessarily anything destructive.....then again...

from what I read earlier I got the gist they were trying to introduce competition between the maintenance centres, rather than geographically based contracts. Not sure how that works in reality, but on the face of it should reduce some costs

I would agree with most of that Grayling, however I do think eliminating the dividend will have some negative effect on SP, how much is debatable, and I would again agree its probably second order. For my money eliminating the current ~3% div altogether is worth around 5% of SP (guessing?). You are obviously right about the fundamentals driving the recovery of RR though not divi.

if they axe the divi altogether I wouldn't be surprised to see 500 mark tomorrow. For me personally I cant see them doing that, I think they would leave a token amount, but like I say its guess work. PS bustateetee its possible the rhetoric on JSF purchases may be a cause for some SP rise

not sure I have anything particularly insightful to give on tomorrow im afraid. Do we even know the content of what's going to be dished out? My guess is it will be a roughly a halving of dividends if that subject matter is to be discussed, looks like circa 2000 management rolls being chopped and based on that I would expect the SP to dip down to 530-520's on the back of the divi news, then have a mild rebound as that's pretty much what everyone is expecting, plus the cost cutting redundancies.....but its guess work so I could be miles off.

At present the demerger is being rebutted. But speculatively, if a demerger for marine was progressed, how would this happen in reality with the nuclear side of things? my thoughts are a) all our nuclear capabilities must be manufactured by UK companies due to intellectual trade agreements with US technology and b) RR have ALWAYS been the design and manufacture base for ALL of the submarine reactors --> the government would be right up the creek if RR decided it was not going to support the submarine programme any more.....would the government LET them pull out? Just passing thoughts. Not even sure why they would want to get rid of the submarine work, as far as I can tell its a cash cow

Article making sound bytes that with the gluts around at present oil could sink a lot further - but when OPEC have had enough a major bounce and spike is likely. All seems like opportunities to top up on the dips and wait for the bounce? (assuming it plays out that way) http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/markets/goldman-eyes-dollar20-oil-as-glut-overwhelms-storage-sites/ar-BBndHwj?li=AA54rU&ocid=iehp

yep I was thinking the same thing......They will be pushing harder than ever to sell off the marine division in my opinion. Short term makes sense, long term I think that's a mistake personally.

think it depends on what assets they are looking to purchase from BAE, if its just weaponry and drones, probably not much benefit to RR, if its full on fighter jets / helicopters then yes should benefit RR.

I didn't say a FTSE 100 company - although as it happens it was a regular occurrence at Alstom in Lincoln between 1999 - 2003 with huge redundancy programme. Subsequent to a Siemens take over the place seems to have sorted itself out. Also seen it happen down in Agusta Westlands in Yeovil where the core talent is booted out, only to decide they need it back 1-2 years down the line.

until the bad news is fully out, in my opinion this will drift - possibly downwards slightly. I'm expecting a drop regardless of how much divi is cut (my prediction FWIW is probably cut the divi by 1/2). My money is on a short term drop back to 500p then back up again when everyone's swallowed the bitter pill. My main concern it the top managements plan for sorting the business out, costs need cutting - but the RIGHT costs, bear in mind this is an engineering business, and too many times I've seen top management cull the core engineering which devastates the long term business. Fingers crossed 'ol Warren knows what he's doing.

wow, well its properly risen past couple of days! I had this pegged at 1700 post ex-div, but its at that already, so looks like it may well rise above my expectations. Wouldn't be the first time I got this SP wrong lol. Happy with my top up at 1605 now though.

if it gets back up to 565 that's roughly an 8.5% mark up in less than a week - to me that would be a strong indicator that the 520 price point was a massive market over reaction.

cant see it myself, I think Brent will take a bit of beating over the next 3-4 months, Iran supply has me a bit twitchy too....but who knows