Member Info for philpot1001

sorry meant 29th February!

my cash payment for my BG shares was paid on 29th March - im with AJ Bell

any insights into todays POO spike? I know that distilled inventories slightly fell, but crude inventories rose yet further! Cant understand how that's resulted in a POO spike?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-oil-falls-crude-stocks-003131407.html US crude hits record stock levels. Capping oil production at record levels wont do sod all regarding fundamentals, even less if Iran ignore it and keep increasing (most likely outcome I would say).

not sure how it works TBH in terms of the value of RDSB shares provided to BG holders. The way I understand it, its £3.83 plus 0.4544 RDSB shares for every BG share, im assuming they will just dish out RSB shares (so effectively shares at the current price) but im maybe being simplistic.

I think unfortunately the POO will float around this level for months (between $26 - $31) - it wont benefit anyone involved in oil , Saudis wont be happy as its not low enough to kill off shale, and just mean chronic suffering for everyone else. I think its going to require a POO of $15 or lower to kill off shale significantly, then OPEC and everyone will cut and there will be a bounce. But that's such a bitter price to swallow its going to be difficult to get there. (PS I think it will be a short term bounce when it arrives if you ask me, as I think shale would just then return!). ....Rinse, repeat.

interesting if the Iranians are getting involved in discussions about limiting flow, if that's true there may be some meat to the bones of the rumours......I would still be slightly surprised if it is true though.

ive stated many times I think this is a temporary unjustified rise in SP based on rumours, and I think the SP will depress quite a bit over the coming 6 months...... HOWEVER - what I does highlight is just how quickly and how high this share will recover when the fundamentals are corrected. Once the supply is rebalanced this SP will sky rocket. It really is desperate to lift in value.

I think the dividend is safe as houses for this year isn't it? Ive not heard anything that suggests they will renege on the dividend this year.

also, if there turns out NOT to be a cut in production now after this rumour has been started oil will cave in price! .....Obvs on the flip side if there is a cut oil next month will spike big time.

I just don't buy it at the mo, I believe there is now a growing rhetoric on the subject and the big boys are hoping that everyone will agree and follow suit, but I just don't see Iran or Iraq slowing down their output.......and that will put the Saudis off losing market share - it happened to them in the 80's, once bitten twice shy. I personally think it crude gets down to sub $20, then we will start seeing cross border agreement. Dunno, just my opinion

Is there anything behind these rumours and headlines about the OPEC cartel cutting production by 5%? So far all I have seen is effectively rumours about a possible meeting to discuss it, but denials by some other members that there is going to be a meeting at all? .......and all this "rumour" has driven crude prices up several % ! I would be amazed if Saudi's agreed to cutting production without parity from Russia / Iran and Iraq! And despite further rumours the ruskies may be willing to reduce output, its just one company head that's said that. Is it real or not? my gut feeling at the mo is probably not quite yet, but sounds like its getting there finally.

that calc was done assuming todays RDSB price of 1440p, obvs that may change

OK, I have roughly £1000 worth of shares I bought at 1020p a month or so ago, giving me 103 BG shares. Im confused as to what I will get from this deal give I voted for the shares and cash offer? My understanding is 0.454 RDSB shares and £3.83 per BG share (although the bumph I read in my offer said per 0.10p BG share?) if its per 1 BG share I would get 47 RDSB shares and £394 - that totals £1068. Is that correct?.

that said, the rhetoric has certainly given a lift to the SP....temporary?

all just seems to be soundbytes at present. The ruskies seem to be giving mixed views, some are basically saying they wont do a thing, as the dying off of expensive producers will normalise things - although their prime producer has said he would be in favour or reductions. Also Iran and Iraq have shoved 2 fingers up at opec. It will need a committed and cross cartel action plan to give any meaningful benefit.

Saudis are openly appealing to non opec countries to reduce output so opec can follow suit. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like Iran or Iraq have any intention of doing so, therefore I think its status quo and taps are still gushing. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35398426

for 12 months yes - after that depends on the POO. Where it will be is anyones guess

I think there's huge potential upside here - however I just cant see anything positive happening before June. That said, if you have spare cash, aren't fussed about capturing the lowest trough, and can wait, there's 10% divi to be had which cant be beat!

nuts - I got the equation the wrong way around on the first bit, its (dividend/5000)*100 i.e. ((share numbers*1.88/1.55)/5000)*100