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I’m glad I’m out but I was hoping for light at the end of the tunnel to get back in and recoup some of my losses, at least in the medium term.
If they make it through the suspension period it will be interesting to see what the SP settles at and hopefully there will be a pathway back.
The big hope for LatH’s still in the mix must be that 8am brings a temporary squeeze as shorts try to exit rather than be in limbo for another 30 days.
Good luck to all those still in the mix and to those who bailed with heavy losses.
What a sh*tty ride it’s been ☹️
I’m still here but haven’t jumped back in yet.
I don’t think it’s appropriate for me to comment while I’m not invested.
“Substances and hookers”? I couldn’t afford that malarkey even if I was so inclined with the losses I’m carrying!
Good luck to those still invested.
How can D4E be factored into the current price? Surely the price will reduce by whatever the percentage of new shares is on day of issue, as will our holdings?
Not being argumentative, I just want to be clear about what will happen if D4E becomes a reality while I still have time to act.
It’s starting to make sense to me to sell now at 22p if my holding is going to halve when the D4 E is announced. Bailing out is the last thing I want but equally I don’t want to be a snowman sitting next to a fire watching myself melt.
Overthinking my position again here but I want to canvas opinions from other LTH’s about how we win given the cards that appear to be on the table.
If it’s D4E then am I right in thinking the price is agreed with the banks and bond holders for a swap? The number of shares then determines the price per share but our holding is diluted by the number of shares added eg if the number of shares doubled, our holding is halved irrespective of the price per share agreed with the banks. So our price per share would drop from 22p to 11p. Is that correct?
Similarly if additional investment is agreed from certain shareholders or new investors, our shareholding and respective value is automatically reduced by the percentage of additional shares added as a result of the additional placing. Is that correct? If I’m reading the RNS correctly, it looks like PI’s are not being considered for any additional investment initial offering?
If either of these scenarios comes into effect as suggested by the RNS……our holding is diluted and the value of our holding goes down. Correct?
If this is the case, why are any of us still holding if a dilution of our holding is all but jnevtitanle? Wouldn’t it make sense to sell now and the. Buy back in when the D4E or placing is actioned?
Am I being stupid and missing something obvious?
I’m starting to think that the only reason for us to continue to hold is if there is a takeover or if by some miracle the EoY results are better than expected.
Thoughts?
Great job as always Johny. Thanks for taking the time to reflect our collective concerns in black and white.
It’ll be interesting to see if you get the usual bland corporate response.
With PI’s making up 57% of overall investors, I wonder if it’s worth us trying to get organised and to see if we can group together to exert some influence? Pointless or could it at least force so difficult questions to be answered by the BOD?
I think you’re reflecting the thoughts of a lot of us Dave.
The more I think about the timing of that RNS, the more I think that there is something afoot that we’re not aware of. Especially when Petrofac usually keep updates to a frustrating minimum.
I read it again this morning and in simple terms it seems to be saying that there will be a D4E on the loans, there will be an additional raise from key investors and that they still don’t have the performance guarantees sorted for the upcoming contract starts (which must put them at risk).
All of that said, it makes no sense for a short with 0.8% to have closed their position on Friday.
Who knows what the hell is going on?
I’m fairly certain that if the EoY results are as expected and they are issued late next week without an additional update……we’ll be back below 20p.
Fingers crossed for some good news (hopefully a hostile takeover).
Again an unusually vague notification from the company. This is good news why not shout about it more? How much is the contract extension worth? “Many millions”? Previous extensions have been specific about contract value.
Why couldn’t this news have been released alongside the disruptive RNS on Friday?
Definitely something fishy going on but as usual I can’t work out what’s going on!
If we see a rise today then there has to be something cooking in the background.
This is going to sound negative, but as LTH’s I’m struggling to see how we win following the latest RNS.
My only objectives since Christmas have been to break even at c60p and exit at £1. For the first time in a while, I can’t see how we get there.
D4E dilutes PI’s holding, it’s just a question of by how much.
“Going to major shareholders for funds” = a raise and again dilutes PI’s
STILL not securing performance guarantees puts existing contracts at risk. If we lose one the SP will crater.
No significant new business since Dec and nothing further on the Meek reported new contracts.
EOY results still to be issued which we know are going to be poor and which will put downward pressure on the SP when released.
Why was that nothing burger RNS put out on Friday? It really looks like it was only done to kill and reverse the SP momentum.
Why did the SP hold up at 26.5p which was still c8% up on the week with strong buying after the initial dip. It looks like someone is accumulating.
It all smells very VERY fishy to me.
I took 34k shares off the table at 25p on Friday, about 10% of my holding. Something I thought I’d never do. And do you know what, I actually feel pretty good about it (although I’ll buy back in if it drops to sub 23p).
If this is all a game for a lowball takeover offer, I’d actually see that as a win if it was at the 50p level, even though that would mean a loss.
Sorry to be so negative and I’m really hoping someone can point out a more positive scenario that I’ve missed??
Thanks for asking the question, I’ve been wondering the same.
What will a D4E at 25p actually mean?
Assuming that it doubles the available shares at close of play on day X and the new shares are issued to banks at 25p and further assuming that the closing price prior to the additional shares being issued is also 25p…….does that mean that the market could open the following day at 25p?
If so then I assume that the negative impact on existing shareholders would be that any future grown would be at half the previous rate given the new market cap and additional shares?
Is that correct?
This share will be the death of me. I’ve held off commenting this morning as I wanted to be constructive….but I’m just not seeing any positives.
I went to bed last night happy in the warm glow of 4 days of nice uplifts.
At the back of my mind I thought we might see a measured dip today but not this and certainly not an RNS so badly worded and positioned that a huge drop was inevitable.
I m struggling to see any good news at all. Despite there not being any actual firm information, it looks clear that the solution is likely to me a mixture of D4E, a possible raise on top plus ongoing concerns over guarantees that puts the order book at risk.
I’m struggling to see any positives.
I’m also struggling to see why they put the RNS out at all other than as a deliberate move to reverse the gains seen this week. But why?
It’s been 4.5 months since the December update and it looks like nothing has been resolved. I’m starting to worry as well that we’ve seen no new contracts awarded in that time, just extensions of existing contracts.
I don’t mind admitting that I was hovering over the sell button at 26p this morning.
With the upcoming results likely to be as bad as we’re all expecting, I can’t now see any positive news coming to counter it.
Sorry to be so negative but I’m trying to work out how we move upwards from here with out a multi year wait to recoup LTH’s investments?
Pitched to sound like new analysis and to scare LTH’s, but after reading the posts below twice I realised that there isn’t anything in here that we haven’t debated a dozen times already eg the Paul Curtis endless bond discussions.
I’m still half expecting a downward spike tomorrow as we’ve seen 3 pump and dumps since December, but if we see another lift tomorrow then I think we may well be turning a corner.
Will be interesting to see the next short report as well to see if there has been a decrease
Who knows…..we might even see an RNS for breakfast.
Holding !!
Nice to see the return to the 30’s, although it’s a shame that it looks like 32p won’t hold again.
Also nice to see the £ holding back into 6 figures for the first time in a while……although I’m still just about 50% down from break even.
Like others im hoping it’s not another pump and dump. If you look at the timing it could be as there are still a couple of weeks to get it back down to c24p before the likely RNS at the end of the month.
I still fell that the SP doubles on the results being as expected and a positive RNS on finances. I’d rather that happen at 30p than 24p.
If I was braver I’d dump 50k now to re buy after a drop. But with the end of a very long tunnel in sight, I’m not going to take that risk.
Holding firm and hoping beyond hope that the end of month brings the news we all desperately want.
Yep these are definitely RSA’s maturing from an executive equity incentive scheme. If you look at the report a number of other directors are showing purchases of £4999 in PFC stock.
These are share releases from the scheme that happen automatically at either 3 month or 12 month intervals for the duration of the scheme , irrespective of current SP considerations.
To be honest if they were buying such small amounts on their own initiative, given their likely salaries, i’d be more worried about their lack of faith in the future prospects of the business!
One small plus for me today. With the start of the new tax year, today’s dip means that I can shelter my last 75k Petrofac shares in my ISA utilising the new allowance.
Thats my entire PFC holding now held within my SIPP and ISA ready for profits to be tax free when the share explodes!
Yes that might be wishful thinking, but what else can we do while we wait for our fate to be decided?
Not too long to go now. Hopefully financial restructuring & results announcements by the 30th…:..with another new contract RNS as the cherry on top please!
My current thoughts on what will happen leaving a long March and moving into what’s going to feel like an even longer April -
Administration? - highly unlikely
D4E? - makes no sense at the current market cap. Raises next to nothing even at a 3x or 4x level
Short term financing - I still think we’ll see a mixture of renegotiated loans (both the 2024 & 2026 due loans), non core asset sales and a new arrangement for pre contract guarantees.
Results - my worry is that we see the results issued with a delay to the financial restructuring announcement. For me this pushes the SP sub 20p even if the results are inline with expectations. On the upside we may see shorters taking profits and exiting on the dip.
If we see an announcement of results and a financial solution as per above, I’d see a doubling of the SP to 55p on day 1 with a dreading increase up to 70-80p over the next couple of months. Good mid year results would bump it over the £1 mark. Further new contracts would also give a boost. I think these predictions are realistic is you use say the Wood Grouo Sp performance and results as a sector comparison.
I might be wrong, and it wouldn’t be the first time!
I’m wondering if yesterday’s boost was due to investors moving away from Wood Group and into Petrofac following their results yesterday?
My reading of the results were that they were pretty good but that growth and restructuring will mean a long haul before Wood fully realise their potential.
Petrofac on the other hand looks horribly oversold with a bigger order book (albeit with a much larger short term risk).
Wood shares are down 12% from yesterday morning, mirroring the PFC boost.
Might just be coincidence.
Other than a year end shuffle I can’t see a reason for a short reduction or a PI move on no news.
A leak on the short term financing is unlikely.
Anyway, let’s see if we can stay around 28 today which will be a good result.
Holding, not selling!
True Pokerchips, but with contract staff you carry the cost within the lifetime of the project (albeit at a slight premium) whereas staff on the payroll are an ongoing cost month in month out, irrespective of workload.
Part of today’s announcement from Wood was highlighting dramatic headcount reduction over the coming years.
It could be that they are moving to a model closer to that of Petrofac moving forward?