Member Info for PFCvetran

It looks like we have moved into a period of low activity.

Maybe everyone has made their respective plays and we are all in a state of hibernation, awaiting the next RNS from the PFC board…..

I wonder how long we’ll all have to wait?

Paul, life is too short to have us answer your questions with our opinions and for you to then ask the same questions again. We disagree in our analysis….and that’s fine.

We had this last time you surfaced with your questions about shorts not decreasing.

I don’t believe there will be an equity raise. I don’t believe therefore that there is an inherent risk to bond holders or to shareholders. Others disagree which is why the bond and share values are where they are at present.

You may be right, I may be right. Not sure why you’re struggling with this concept?

Paul “you really need to focus on this”

No I don’t, sorry fella.

Differences of opinion are all part of life’s rich pattern.

We’ll see which camp is correct soon enough.

Re the bonds, the hierarchy issue is not likely to be the relevant determining factor if there is no dilution or administration.

The pressure on the bonds is more likely to be based on the speculation that any bond based refinancing will put pressure on existing bond holders to accept a variation.

Thats my reading of it.

I suspect that ultimately there is a solution that will not impair shareholders or bond holders.

We’re already 6 weeks into the year. Revenue will be coming in from the first Tennet contract and judging by comments in the last update, legacy contracts should mostly have settled by this point (for better or worse).

Cheer up fella. The glass is half full!

Paul, most of us have been here for a long time invested in this share and have a good understanding of the risks involved with investing in the company.

We’ve seen some awful times over the last near decade with very little good news and very few opportunities to bring huge averages down.

The current situation is not the worst that Petrofac has been through. The SFO investigation felt like a never ending black hole, followed by no new contracts, an ADNOC ban and then COVID.

Investing here is 100% a gamble but based on the known variables, it’s one I’m comfortable making.

I’m taking comfort in the fact that short position growth has stalled, increasing only 0.2% in the last 6 weeks.

The bonds are perhaps more vulnerable to the likely financial restructure than equity in my opinion. A raise at this level will not raise enough to justify the dilution.

Sentiment is important, and I think the tide is turning in favour of those who are going long.

It all depends on the next RNS……..

It’s sounds like quite a few of us are in a similar position.

I’m jealous of your average Amers! You’re in a great position to capitalise if we see that breakout!

I don’t mind sharing my position. I’m now holding just over 330k shares at an average of just over 59p. A scary c£200k invested.

I don’t recommend anyone follow my strategy which will shortly be all of my eggs in the PFC basket, including some 0% credit card borrowing that lasts until mid 25 (I know, I know!!).

My pension is still diversified and separate so I won’t be penniless, but I definitely won’t be retiring for another decade if this goes badly south.

Those of you who were here in late December know that I was pretty despairing of the position as I thought losing everything was a real risk.

It’s still a massive gamble IMO, but having been in this share for so long I’ve made another fatal error of becoming attached.

In terms of ISA split. Having held so long, most of my expensive PFC holdings are in the ISA which is currently 80% down, meaning when the profit comes (hopefully) most of it will be outside the ISA wrapper.

In short, my strategy is a perfect example of how NOT to do it, so please don’t anyone copy it.

In an ideal world I’d try something similar to Mary’s approach. Sensible, pragmatic & disciplined….

Good luck to everyone, (even the green boxed blocked nutters)

A good day.

With no update since the December 20th news, I’m starting to feel more and more confident about a positive non-dilutive funding solution.

We’re already 6 weeks into the new year and no news is almost certainly good news.

We know from recent buying that there is probably II investment happening in the background.

Shorts are holding (probably working on the basis that there won’t be an update until March which gives them time to potentially mitigate possible losses).

With all the above in mind, I’ve decided to sell all my remaining non pension holdings held elsewhere and to put all my eggs in the PFC basket.

Bought more today bringing my average down below 60p and will keep plugging away (blocked and almost forgotten 😂) to drop feed more in over the next few weeks.

Gulp, all or nothing here we go!! Retirement or working until I die?

Thanks Onwardsnupwards. Good info!

Has anyone seen anything definitive about a Feb update?

A few people have mentioned it but I haven’t been able to find anything official that references it.

If memory serves we didn’t get an EOY report until April last year.

Has anyone seen a date published anywhere?

Great day.

I wonder if we’re seeing a new II taking a position?

Great news if so, as it makes it less and less likely that we’ll see any sort of raise impacting LTH’s. II’s are unlikely to take a large holding without confidence that their investment won’t be diluted.

Stating the obvious, but the more organic growth that we can see to the SP before any RNS……the higher the jump when we see a double up on the back of the anticipated news about a positive short term funding solution!

Thanks Johnny, it’d be great if you could share their next response as well when you get it.

Thanks for your comment Yorkshire. Fingers crossed we’ll all see the sunny uplands of profit soon!

Thanks for sharing J, and well done in a response from Petrofac IR, they are less than useless most of the time.

That said, what an unhelpful response!

Personally though I’m glad that we didn’t get notification of the Schroeder’s divestment on the 1st of December. I was struggling to sleep and was paranoid that I was about to lose everything. This news would have pushed me over the edge and I’m sure we’d have seen an even bigger dip in SP.

It does seem fishy that the RNS was issued shortly afterwards on the 4th. I suspect it was a knee jerk response to the Schroders news that finally made the company realise that they had to make some kind of statement.

Paul

LTH’s don’t actually care if the shorts stay or go. As long as they hold position and don’t increase and drive the price down further…..it makes no difference to me. At some point they have to exit and buyback. That will either boost the SP over time or in a squeeze. A squeeze would be more fun, but I don’t care.

Their whole strategy was initially based on failure / admin. The update on the 20th of Dec effectively quashed that. The only way for them to win now is to manage an exit through manipulation (again, I don’t care if this results in short term dips) or to pray for a RI.

The only issue for the company and us longs is short term liquidity. I don’t care about the level of debt. I care about the cash flow, staying above the covenant threshold each month and funding for the guarantees.

Judging by the posts on here today, most longs broadly agree.

I’m confident the company will find a solution that isn’t too painful for existing shareholders.

You seem to be falling into the repetition we see from other persistent posters such as Tony, Dogger and Snapper etc…..albeit with a more articulate vocabulary.

We’ll see who is right but let’s all try and change the record.

An equity raise at this level to clear the debt would decimate shareholders and even at 200% wouldn’t raise the amount needed to fully reposition the business.

It makes no sense to do this just for a short term liquidity fix unless there are no other options. My view is that there are other more palatable options for the Board.

The last raise at 115p was an exceptional event on the back of the SFO fine and was clearly ineffectual in restructuring the business for long term growth.

I still think a renegotiation with the banks (which IS referenced in the Dec 20th update), plus some sale of assets will see PFC through the next 12 months. Revenue received from the old contracts is also still a variable that we should have clarity on after the next update.

In terms of shorts, if they still believe, why are they sticking at 11.44% and not pumping more in to keep a lid on the price?

It’s a stalemate until we get more news, but it feels much more bullish that it has for a VERY long time.

Paul, you missed a renegotiation of short term lending arrangement’s from your list of options.

This is where the EOY results will be interesting. We know from the December update that contingency funds held back in the mid-year update are still in play and that the short term cash flow position will also be impacted by the payments received from completing contracts.

Combined with a renegotiation of loans and pre contract guarantees with the banks, the liquidity situation could potentially be resolved without any of the options you mention.

I still think an equity raise at this level is very unlikely.

It’s a bit feisty on here today!

Despite the resistance at 30p it’s great to see the price holding firm at 20% up WoW despite no news.

I know we’re all waiting for an RNS re new contracts or short term financing, but does anyone know when the next formal update is due? Nothing on the website. I thought it was April for the full year results, but I’ve seen a couple of mentions about the 20th of Feb?

I could be being overly optimistic, but today’s lift could indicate that a positive RNS is imminent.

You might well be right in saying next week is too soon though.

I guess the real positive here is that the lack of news isn’t preventing steps upward in the SP. Something that wasn’t happening in the news vacuum of Q4 last year when the lack of updates saw the shorts in full control of the SP.

What an encouraging start to the week!

We’ll probably see a little pull back from here, but the overriding message from the last week or so has been that the short investment probably reached its limit at the 11.44% mark and that those who joined the party later without a hedge are now over exposed.

Great to see a rise on the back of no news. Bodes well for an RNS towards the end of the month.

I’d rather that the expected good news doubled the SP from a base of 32p rather than 22p.

Let’s see how the week pans out……

I’m still pretty convinced that when the RNS finally comes which outlines the short term funding solution, we will see the SP jump 100% + in fairly short order.

For once it would be nice not to be at the bottom of the cycle when that happens.

Today feels like more manipulation even though it’s nice to see a lift. But if it helps to keep the price in the 24 - 26p range for the next update then that’s going to be a good result for those going long.

With shorts north of 11%, I can’t see the risk / reward being worth them piling much more in.

Holding!

Thanks Sundancer.

Good response which kind of underlines the point of why would you do it now with the SP already so low? Massive dilution to raise very little. The low entry point would however make it easier for current LTH’s to take full advantage of any offer.

This is why I still think that a re arrangement with the banks is the most likely outcome in fixing the short term liquidity issues, combined with some asset disposals.