Member Info for PFCvetran

I finally took the advice of several regular posters here and filtered the worst de-ramping offenders.

It’s actually very therapeutic not to have to read the same repeated points that they’ve been posting for the last 5+ years.

I highly recommend it.

Just go to the filter button above, type in their usernames and leave them to shout into the void, alone & forgotten …..

Thanks all. I can’t believe that a rights issue is imminent at this level. It would make no sense and be catastrophic for the medium term value of the business.

If you’d asked me a month ago about a takeover I’d have said no thank you. I’d welcome it now vs the alternative!

I keep coming back to the fundamentals though. Even if the costs position in the update is worse than forecasted, the new contracts and resulting revenue growth next year and in subsequent years has to turn the tide during 2024 and the current banking agreements run until October 2024.

The 12th of December feels like a VERY long time away.

What’s the likelihood of an interim RNS or statement from the BOD……or even from Investor Relations (I’m assuming that they only use that name ironically)?

Would it be uncommon to make a statement in this situation in response to such a huge drop ? Or should we infer bad news from the silence?

I’m hoping that someone wiser than me can give a view on whether this is BAU behaviour or if most companies would be reacting to such a market rout?

Still holding but I don’t think I’ve ever been so angry about the market behaviour of a share given all the positive news and contract awards.

…….aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrtttgggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhh.

Thank you.

I needed that.

Incredibly frustrated.

Still holding.

I’m still extremely positive about my long term position here, but I’m getting very frustrated by the radio silence from Investor Relations to investors.

This is a dramatic decline in shareholder value with no obvious explanation. If we carry on with this trajectory, the SP will be in the mid 20’s by the time of the December update.

At that point even if there is a better than expected reporting of the debt position, it will take months to return to the 80p SP that we saw just a few weeks ago.

We’ll then have to wait until Q2 for any further update.

You can see why shorters love this share.

Unless we have been lied to or information is being purposely withheld, I still have absolute faith in the turnaround potential here and I’m not selling……but it’s so frustrating that no one at the company is seeking to dampen down the negative sentiment……

Have been topping up all day.

My average is down to 97p, under £1 for the first time.

I’ve been averaging down since being caught out in the 800p to 900p range years ago, followed by the killer SFO dive in SP.

That’s it now. I’m all in. I’ve freed up funding where I probably shouldn’t have over the last few weeks to invest more here.

Every piece of data tells me that this is the right move and that the turnaround must come in 2024.

If I’m wrong, I’ll be working until I die……….

Very nervously waiting for the Dec update and hoping that 45p holds in the interim.

I always find it a positive sign when Mary starts posting on here. Her return usually heralds an upswing (no pressure Mary)!

Very relieved to see this bottom out and bounce.

HOWEVER….I can’t help but feel once again that PFC is a totally manipulated share.

I’m holding long and will continue to do so but seeing yet another massive 40% drop on no news, followed by a bounce on no news just leaves a bad taste in the mouth.

Will continue holding and waiting for a good update in December to cheer us into 2024!

It looks like the SP will hit the previous all time low today.

It’s pretty scary, but I keep looping back to asking what has fundamentally changed over the last month to be driving this slide? The answer is…….nothing.

It would be nice to hear something from the BOD or investor relations but all LT holders know how terrible they are at keeping PI’s updated / reassured.

Madness to even contemplate selling at this level in my opinion with a full order book and the promise of more contracts to come…..

I see I’m being accused of baseless ramping.

I think I’ve been pretty open and honest with my posts that I’m a long term holder since c2014. I’ve taken huge hits over the years with PFC and made significant additional investments to average down to a 111p break-even.

I stand by my assessment that the future has never looked better for PFC in all of that period. A record breaking order book, SFO long in the rear view mirror, a record breaking number of traditional and new technology contracts live in the marketplace where we are in a strong bidding position.

Cash flow and debt is the key risk factor.

If the December update is good then I think my assessment is pretty conservative. If the debt issues persist……well that’s what’s behind the current slide, so to an extent it’s baked in. The banking covenants negotiated earlier this year still have a good slice of time to run and cash will soon be coming in from the new contracts. A takeover is unlikely due to Asfaris holding and a cash raise at this level is meaningless. An extension of current debt is the most likely worst case scenario in my opinion.

Let’s see who’s right in a couple of months…….

To pass the time while we go though this annoying dip, I’ve been trying to map out what the next 24 months might look like.

A lot will be driven by the December statement. If the BOD reports that we’re broadly in line with expectations, especially regarding the debt position, then the last piece of negative sentiment/ risk starts to fall away.

I can see this giving the SP and initial boost followed by a steady climb up above 100p by mid Q1 2024.

Any additional contract wins will give the SP a disproportionate boost in the interim.

If my maths is right, the market cap at this point will see us being added back into the FTSE 250 which should see another leg up in SP

Assuming that the FY results are in line with expectations a further boost up above 200p is not an unreasonable expectation for the summer.

At this point the reintroduction of a dividend is likely to be a hot topic. If hinted at in the December report of 2024 then I can easily see 300p being realistic moving into 2025.

Speculative maybe, but still more realistic than the doom posts we’re seeing on this board at the moment.

I topped up at 70p and again at 60p even though I promised myself I wouldn’t buy any more this year.

As usual I missed the bottom by a mile, but it feels like we’re there now.

Ignore the guys who’ve been posting the same 0p posts since 2017. PFC have their strongest contract pipeline in at least a decade. A strong foot in the future with renewables and a vote of confidence from an old partner with the new ADNOC contract.

The shorters are exploiting the genuine risk around short term cash flow, but the trading update in December will settle that matter.

A positive update on debt and cash flow in line with the previous forecast and there’s no more bad news to short.

Stay strong and look to the horizon.

Some feedback for negative posters and de-rampers……

Posting 15 paragraphs of a Chat GPT answer is a lot less impactful than simply posting “it’s over”

However, neither approach is going to make me sell.

Weather the storm & eyes to the bright horizon all holders!!

I’m sure that I’m sharing the frustration of most LT holders here. We’ve all been here before with PFC, and most of us more than once!

Let’s study what we know…..

1. The contract pipeline for the business is stronger than it’s been for a decade

2. We’ve just won an ADNOC contract worth £600m showing that we’re back in favour with one of the biggest players

3. PFC have a firm foot in the future with a massive renewables contract and the promise of more to come

4. We are a tricky takeover target due to the make up of PI, and the huge Asfari family holding making it difficult for any suitor to get a meaningful foothold

5. If the latest trading update is to believed, the repositioning of our banking covenants leaves us well placed to cover the otherwise worrying debt position through H2, after which incoming payments from new contracts will edge us back into the green.

I’ve watched the usual suspects come out of the wood work and de-ramp everytime we’ve been in this position for at least half a decade. It’s the same collection of disgruntled former employees and “it’s over” merchants every time.

I’m holding firm. I’ve added (although I said I wouldn’t) my break even is now down to 110p.

If I’m wrong, I’m working for another 5 years longer than planned.

Eyes to the horizon. 2024 must finally, FINALLY be our year !

I promised myself I wouldn’t add more, but at these levels it’s makes no sense not to.

My logic is that I still believe in the medium to long term turnaround. All the indicators point to a cash influx next year from the new contracts.

The debt position is worrying and legacy contracts are a concern, but unless the company is actually lying to us….the December trading update should finally show a pathway back to profitability.

So…I’m taking the opportunity to leverage down a bit more during this manufactured dip.

If I’m wrong then I’m totally screwed anyway….so a bit more won’t hurt!

Really good summary Dave. Like you, I’m buried deep and loooooooooong.

It’s been a nightmare 7-8 years with this share, but I’ve never felt more positive for the medium to long term.

Tin hat and ignore the day to day noise. Eyes on the horizon to mid 24 when the debt is gone, and 25 for the restoration of a dividend.

My break even is 122p. My “bottle” test exit price is 200p. My balls of steel hold out target is 350p lol.

A 20% + drop on absolutely no news other than a re-rate to 85p from Barclays.

The frustrating thing is nearly all LT holders here will have seen it coming once the SP hit 80p but can’t afford to react.

I can’t average down any more as I’ve already sunk way too much into this share to average down to 122p. If I jump out at 80p, it’s just as likely to jump back up to 85p and I’ve been left behind.

I suspect there are a lot like me who can’t take the risk even though we’ve seen this type of drop a dozen times before in recent years. Instead we look to the horizon, hope that there isn’t a cash call, and wait for the balance sheet to turn green at some point in H1 2024.

Quite refreshing to have a results day where the SP doesn’t fall through the floor, which it has on this day every 6 months for the last 7-8 years.

A couple more £1bn + contracts in H2 and I’m really confident that we’ll see a level of 200p to c300p in H2 next year (barring any new wars / eco nightmares etc).

I’ve been buried in this share since 2014 and have invested a fortune leveraging down, but I’m feeling more confident that I have for a VERY long time.

I see little chance of a funds raise with the revenue incoming from the new contracts in H2 this year, and none of the major shareholders are going to consider a takeover at current levels with all the gravy that’s just around the corner.

Be patient, hold and wait is my strategy!

A takeover now would be bad news for the majority of long term holders and newer holders alike.

We all know that the current SP and market capitalisation dramatically undervalues the business. Any takeover bid will be rooted in that current valuation and I think talk of £2 or £2.40 is ambitious.

My average is c122p and my exit target has been £2 for a while, but the reality is that we now have a pipeline of c£7.5bn, one of the highest the company has ever had, with more contracts hopefully to be added over the coming months. While I don’t think we’ll see £10 again, partially due to the share solution, I think £3-£4 is realistic for 2024 if the debt is cleared and there is a commitment to reintroducing a dividend from 2025.

Given all of this, a bid would be a distraction and would lead to more instability in the share price, especially if the deal doesn’t go through.

Keep the faith and watch the weight of positive news start to have a compound positive impact on the share price. Ultimately when the results start to head north, so will the SP.

Oh Tony, when your de ramping turns to basic trolling like this…. I know I’m onto a winner. Hugs.