Member Info for PFCvetran

If this was a TV drama, you’d say it was dragging on about 3 episodes too long and that the plot was starting to repeat itself lol.

Tired of being in a constant state of cat like readiness and tension.

Roll on Wednesday and put us all out of our misery!

The limited short reduction seems to be a controlled partial withdrawal rather than any sort of panic, so unless there’s news over the weekend I suspect the SP will continue much as it has this week moving into Monday and Tuesday.

Good luck to my fellow LTH’s.

Nearly there one way or another!

I’m still here Apothecary. Just keeping my powder dry and watching the week unfold.

It does feel like the shorts are having one more stab to push us lower before the update.

I think my current thought are that the update next week won’t be all shiny and positive, but neither will it be terminal.

I think it will show some progress against the overall debt but I also suspect some questions around cash flow will be frustratingly TBC.

I think my mood will turn darker if we’re not seeing the shorts decreasing Monday & Tuesday. Unless there is a leak, why would you take such an almighty risk (some are at circa 2.5%) going into the update and the holiday closedown period?

Not selling. Holding!

I think Pokerchips said he was dipping out until the update on the 20th.

Probably to avoid the crowing moths temporarily drawn to the PFC flame on this board.

Perceptive guy that Pokerchips. Good man.

It’s going to be an interesting week in the run up to the 20th.

Best case, I’m hoping for a surprise RNS about a new contract.

Tennet confirming the progressing of the second contract would also be perfect timing.

With no further news I’d be surprised to see shorts moving above 10%. If they do then it looks like there definitely is a leak.

I’d anticipate some of them closing their positions ahead of the weekend, especially those who were in earlier in the SP slide.

SP? Who knows but I was pleased to see resistance at the c20p mark for most of the week.

I think a rights issue is unlikely, but at these levels it would at least be cheaper for LTH’s to maintain the value of their holdings.

Still feeling very nervous, but more positive than the last couple of Sundays.

Not selling. Holding.

Sounds like we’ve got a similar amount on the table fella. I first invested in this bloody company in 2014 and it’s been a downward slide ever since.

I took a gamble on Friday that really helped my average. Just panic if I’m honest.

Fingers crossed it pays off for both of us. A better couple of days and hopefully good news on the 20th. Good luck.

Fair comment Oilheadgame but I’ve followed this down from being caught out at 900p before the SFO investigation hit.

On the way down I’ve been caught out several times trying to average down.

I’m pleased to be at 61p in that context but in terms of risk, it’s cost me the farm to get here and a final expensive leap of faith at 17p on Friday.

I thought my post was pretty positive compared to most of the paranoid misery I’ve been posting for the last couple of weeks!

I added late on Friday just before close.

My thought process is that I can make an incremental difference to my break even by averaging down at this level. I’m already massively over exposed so it doesn’t really make a difference in terms of the trouble I’m in if there’s a failure here.

My average is now 61p but I’m way beyond all in now.

My positive interpretation of next weeks possible events are -

1. Those in short positions, especially late joiners to the party, must be nervous.

2. There is a realistic chance that the second Tennet contract will be signed and announced before the 20th.

3. An RNS announcing a new ADNOC or other deal is still a real possibility before the 20th. We know PFC are at preferred bidder stage in a number of negotiations

4. The first loans are not due for repayment until October next year and we know that revenue will be flooding in for Q1 onwards from the new contracts

5. Nothing new in the press this weekend. Is it really likely that a leak would reach a myriad of shorters but that no one in the press would pick it up?

6. BOD silence. I said this last week, but it does now start to look like a positive, especially after Fridays hammering. Surely if there was material bad news they would have had to say something after a 50%+ drop in a week? There must also be a calculation from the shorters fearing a positive statement next week ahead of the 20th.

7. What are the BOD going to say on the 20th? The price already reflects a catastrophic rise in debt, a breach of covenants being enforced by banks and Dfor E etc.

Is it really likely to be all of these? More likely a near miss on the anticipated debt repayment for 2023.

It will be very interesting to see what happens at 8am tomorrow.

Not selling. Holding.

I was probably out of order Pokerchips. It was just seeing you join in the “amusing” Petrofac name derivations pushed my buttons on a very bad day.

I’m totally screwed if this goes under and I’m struggling a bit with it all, so apologies for snapping at you.

Surprised to see you joining in the trolling Pokerchips. I’d always seen you as a sensible, well balanced voice on this board over the years.

Sad to see this.

It’s not going to make it to the 20th.

All these years and so much money wasted waiting for it to turn and now it’s falling at the final hurdle.

I can’t find anything positive to say at all seeing what’s happening today.

Can’t sell and take such a massive loss.

Absolute despair.

Hi Edward, all duly noted but interestingly bond values have increased for 5 days in a row now.

BOD silence is now actually a positive. I read it to mean that there is no material change or risk that they are obligated to report.

Both Institutional and Long PI’s are holding.

New shorts are over exposed and entering at unsustainable levels.

One positive RNS (a COP28 deal or the second Tennet deal) will knock the first domino.

Another awful day for long term holders.

The saddest thing for me though has been watching the number of new people coming to the board just to gloat over recent days and especially today.

These folks clearly aren’t invested in PFC and if you look at their posting histories, post normally on other boards.

However they feel the need to come on here and goad LTH’s or quote obvious data / stats that we’ve all seen a million times before.

Lots of us on here are facing massive losses. If you’re trying to make us feel worse, well done. If you’re trying to make us sell…..no chance.

It’s a really sad trait guys. We’ve got our fair share of long term trolls who most of use have filtered. Be better.

Trying to stay positive but this is relentless.

Is there a bottom?

I can’t see how we make it to the 20th of December at this rate of decline.

STILL NOT SELLING

In the absence of any actual updates or RNS, and with a month to go until the formal update. I thought I’d do a few pro’s and con’s to help settle the nerves

Pro’s

1. Biggest contract backlog ever

2. New markets with huge contracts ((wind / carbon capture)

3. ADNOC love affair rekindled

4. Fitch re-rate

5. Huge recruitment drive underway

6. Circa £40billion of contracts still to be awarded

7. Second Tennet award imminent

8. Even if the update is worse than expected, loan repayments aren’t due until Oct 24 at the earliest

Con’s

1. Short term cash flow concerns as old contracts end and we wait for new contracts to feed through

2. Silence from BOD ahead of update allowing rumour and uncertainty to thrive and shorters to rule

3. If the December update is bad, there are no further updates until April 2024 at the earliest to boost the SP. Any price recovery will be down to contract news.

Makes me feel better looking at it like this. I mean, why wouldn’t you hold?

Holding & waiting!!

Obviously we can’t continue on this trajectory of decline until the 20th of December……we’d be at zero long before that date.

Surely it can’t go into the 20’s? But then I said that about the 50’s, 40’s and 30’s.

It’s got to be shaky ground for those in a short position. Surely they can’t risk waiting for the update, and a new contract could be announced any day.

So what’s the play here? Where do the shorts draw the line?

Where does someone with deep pockets step in and start to buy up a hefty share of this business?

Curious to know what people think (don’t bother Tony, Snapper, Dogger…..you’re all filtered lol)?

Yep filtering those guys was the best thing I’ve done in the last month after years of putting up with them posting the same cut & paste doom during every dip.

I think most on here have done the same now so they are just shouting into the empty void, lonely and irrelevant!

Sorry to hear you’re in the same boat SM66, although you’ve done well to av down to 66p.

Even with all the additional averaging down and over exposure over recent weeks, I’m still at a 94p average.

A sharp upswing before Christmas would be extremely comforting.

Let’s hope the BOD accentuate the positive in the Dec update!

Sorry all.

Had a weak moment posting that.

Have sat myself down and given myself a good talking to.

Reminded myself that ……

- the order book is huge

- the ME situation doesn’t affect us directly

- even a bad position on legacy debt is manageable with the banking covenants that are in place.

- The next phase of the Tennet deal could be announced any day.

- More ADNOC contracts pending

I’ve even just added a few more at 37.8p (not many as I’m skint, but a gesture none the less).

I’m back in the boat, sorry again. Eyes to the horizon!

I can’t believe it.

Never thought it would get this low.

There’s clearly something that we’re not being told that has been leaked.

I put further nails in my own coffin on the way down by averaging down significantly at 70p, 60p and 45p thinking”this must be the bottom”.

I am now massively over exposed. Stupid.

Silence from IR and the BOD now has to be interpreted as bad news.

Some will say that a bad update is now factored into the price. That is never the case with PFC updates. Nearly always down afterwards.

Not selling. What would be the point? Ruined. Stupid.