focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Some feedback for negative posters and de-rampers……
Posting 15 paragraphs of a Chat GPT answer is a lot less impactful than simply posting “it’s over”
However, neither approach is going to make me sell.
Weather the storm & eyes to the bright horizon all holders!!
I’m sure that I’m sharing the frustration of most LT holders here. We’ve all been here before with PFC, and most of us more than once!
Let’s study what we know…..
1. The contract pipeline for the business is stronger than it’s been for a decade
2. We’ve just won an ADNOC contract worth £600m showing that we’re back in favour with one of the biggest players
3. PFC have a firm foot in the future with a massive renewables contract and the promise of more to come
4. We are a tricky takeover target due to the make up of PI, and the huge Asfari family holding making it difficult for any suitor to get a meaningful foothold
5. If the latest trading update is to believed, the repositioning of our banking covenants leaves us well placed to cover the otherwise worrying debt position through H2, after which incoming payments from new contracts will edge us back into the green.
I’ve watched the usual suspects come out of the wood work and de-ramp everytime we’ve been in this position for at least half a decade. It’s the same collection of disgruntled former employees and “it’s over” merchants every time.
I’m holding firm. I’ve added (although I said I wouldn’t) my break even is now down to 110p.
If I’m wrong, I’m working for another 5 years longer than planned.
Eyes to the horizon. 2024 must finally, FINALLY be our year !
I promised myself I wouldn’t add more, but at these levels it’s makes no sense not to.
My logic is that I still believe in the medium to long term turnaround. All the indicators point to a cash influx next year from the new contracts.
The debt position is worrying and legacy contracts are a concern, but unless the company is actually lying to us….the December trading update should finally show a pathway back to profitability.
So…I’m taking the opportunity to leverage down a bit more during this manufactured dip.
If I’m wrong then I’m totally screwed anyway….so a bit more won’t hurt!
Really good summary Dave. Like you, I’m buried deep and loooooooooong.
It’s been a nightmare 7-8 years with this share, but I’ve never felt more positive for the medium to long term.
Tin hat and ignore the day to day noise. Eyes on the horizon to mid 24 when the debt is gone, and 25 for the restoration of a dividend.
My break even is 122p. My “bottle” test exit price is 200p. My balls of steel hold out target is 350p lol.
A 20% + drop on absolutely no news other than a re-rate to 85p from Barclays.
The frustrating thing is nearly all LT holders here will have seen it coming once the SP hit 80p but can’t afford to react.
I can’t average down any more as I’ve already sunk way too much into this share to average down to 122p. If I jump out at 80p, it’s just as likely to jump back up to 85p and I’ve been left behind.
I suspect there are a lot like me who can’t take the risk even though we’ve seen this type of drop a dozen times before in recent years. Instead we look to the horizon, hope that there isn’t a cash call, and wait for the balance sheet to turn green at some point in H1 2024.
Quite refreshing to have a results day where the SP doesn’t fall through the floor, which it has on this day every 6 months for the last 7-8 years.
A couple more £1bn + contracts in H2 and I’m really confident that we’ll see a level of 200p to c300p in H2 next year (barring any new wars / eco nightmares etc).
I’ve been buried in this share since 2014 and have invested a fortune leveraging down, but I’m feeling more confident that I have for a VERY long time.
I see little chance of a funds raise with the revenue incoming from the new contracts in H2 this year, and none of the major shareholders are going to consider a takeover at current levels with all the gravy that’s just around the corner.
Be patient, hold and wait is my strategy!
A takeover now would be bad news for the majority of long term holders and newer holders alike.
We all know that the current SP and market capitalisation dramatically undervalues the business. Any takeover bid will be rooted in that current valuation and I think talk of £2 or £2.40 is ambitious.
My average is c122p and my exit target has been £2 for a while, but the reality is that we now have a pipeline of c£7.5bn, one of the highest the company has ever had, with more contracts hopefully to be added over the coming months. While I don’t think we’ll see £10 again, partially due to the share solution, I think £3-£4 is realistic for 2024 if the debt is cleared and there is a commitment to reintroducing a dividend from 2025.
Given all of this, a bid would be a distraction and would lead to more instability in the share price, especially if the deal doesn’t go through.
Keep the faith and watch the weight of positive news start to have a compound positive impact on the share price. Ultimately when the results start to head north, so will the SP.
Im in a similar position to you Woodelf with a hard earned 124p average since the original 2017 crash. I’m staying in whatever now. The Hitachi deal was the game changer and outweighs all these short term shenanigans.
Let’s see what tomorrow brings…….
Those who are long here will know that results day has led to either an SP dip or a dive every time since about 2017.
Even though the recent RNS have put all of the bad news cards on the table, I can still see a dip happening tomorrow, UNLESS there is a contract announcement.
If there is then I think we will see the start of a relentless march North for the SP.
If there isn’t, I’ll ride the dip and continue to hold for that march North to start a few weeks later.
A recovery is inevitable now, just a matter of timing. It only needs to be to a fraction of PFC’s former glory and we are all going to make a LOT of money.
200p exit for me…..I can wait a bit longer if I have to.
Over the years I’ve found a sense of humour to be an invaluable asset in going long on this share.
A few thoughts….
1. Some posters are suggesting that Hitachi may have been caught out by this announcement and that the £13bn contract is now at risk. No chance. The liquidity question would have been number one in any due diligence assessment.
2. Staged managed release of information by the board? I think so. £13bn first, now the loss, next more new contracts (hinted at again in the RNS) & the new refinancing news. Hopefully on or before the 25th
3. This gets the shorters out of the mix. I think most will breathe a huge sigh of relief and close out rather than opening new positions when the outlook is so positive. Why would they take the risk?
4. I couldn’t understand why the sustained drift in SP after the contract announcement. This news explains it. I like that certainty.
So……all in all not a great day in the heat of the moment, but if we are seeing a sensible communication strategy from the new CEO then I’m still feeling confident. I suspect my 200p exit dream might now be 24 rather than 23 though. I can live with that.
It’s an odd period now for the PFC story.
1. A massive contract in the bag in a new expanding sector . The biggest in the history of the company.
2. Between £30bn to £50bn of O&G service contracts up for grabs in its traditional sector, where relatively few providers operate.
3. A share price, even with the recent bounce, which is still 30%+ lower than the worst days of the SFO investigation, the ADNOC lock out, the COVID crash and the dearth of significant new business for nearly 5 years.
If you look at the opportunity through these three lenses then the current SP makes no logical sense.
The tide of inevitability is pushing against the dam that is holding this asap back. You can feel it starting to creak.
If I was CEO or a part of the BOD I would be preparing to stage manage events around the EOY results on the 25th to break the dam once and for all and to send the SP flooding back to we’re logic dictates it should be.
Hold firm……the rewards for long term holders are finally, FINALLY coming this year!
Let’s be honest, there is no rational reason why we’re seeing a dip over the last few days other than market manipulation that we as PI’s will never be a party to. We can only speculate as to the machinations that are underway to mitigate shorters losses.
However, I have never felt better about this share. A HUGE contract in the bag in a sector that none of us expected AND still to come at the very least…..the £1.5bn of contracts where PFC are the preferred bidder.
Plus we have a new CEO in place with a wealth of experience and contacts in our core markets.
Ignore all the current frustrating b******* that none of us mere mortals can impact and hold. Commercial reality will have to hit the SP at some point now that there are real, tangible, HUGE deals in the bag.
Come on £2……by September please!
Despite the slight deep today I’m feeling better than I have done in years about PFC.
This is the first big contract award in half a decade and the first solid piece of actual chunky business to hit since the SFO case settled.
The last few months have been the worst in the near decade that I’ve been in on this share (I am looooooong!), but I feel 100% positive that my mortgage paying off target of 200p will be hit at some point in the medium term.
Obvious manipulation today to pour a little bit of water on the burning shorts, but I really only see one way traffic now……up up up
Thank you Pokerchips.
I emailed the AGM email address on Monday but haven’t had a response. I’ll follow up if I haven’t heard back by the end of the week.
Thanks for the link to last year, I hadn’t seen that. Much appreciated!
Does anyone know how to go about attending the AGM in May?
Can a shareholder just turn up or is there some kind of booking process / protocol.
I’ve tried emailing the two Investor Relations contacts on the website, but of course no response.
I definitely want to go and express an opinion on how poorly the company has treated its PI’s over recent months in particular!
Reading the statement again, you could definitely read between the lines that there will be some kind of contract announcement tied in with results.
If there is then we’ll see an absolute rocket upwards.
Would you want to be in a deep short position going into that announcement or would you want to ensure that you’ve taken your profits beforehand just in case?
Let’s be honest, there isn’t much further to fall even if there is no contract update in the results so why would you take the risk if you’re a shorter.
I can see the shorter a divesting themselves of their significant export from the second week of April onwards, giving an inevitable recovery of some of the losses that we’ve seen in March.
Reading the statement again, you could definitely read between the lines that there will be some kind of contract announcement tied in with results.
If there is then we’ll see an absolute rocket upwards.
Would you want to be in a deep short position going into that announcement or would you want to ensure that you’ve taken your profits beforehand just in case?
Let’s be honest, there isn’t much further to fall even if there is no contract update in the results so why would you take the risk if you’re a shorter.
I can see the shorter a divesting themselves of their significant export from the second week of April onwards, giving an inevitable recovery of some of the losses that we’ve seen in March.
Well done on getting a response. Relations with investors are at an all time low and the is the very VERY barest minimum of response we should be getting.
The underlying message is good reading this so why not just put out a statement to that effect IR team? No rules would be broken and this slide would at least be stalled.