Member Info for PFCvetran

Great job as always Johny. Thanks for taking the time to reflect our collective concerns in black and white.

It’ll be interesting to see if you get the usual bland corporate response.

With PI’s making up 57% of overall investors, I wonder if it’s worth us trying to get organised and to see if we can group together to exert some influence? Pointless or could it at least force so difficult questions to be answered by the BOD?

I think you’re reflecting the thoughts of a lot of us Dave.

The more I think about the timing of that RNS, the more I think that there is something afoot that we’re not aware of. Especially when Petrofac usually keep updates to a frustrating minimum.

I read it again this morning and in simple terms it seems to be saying that there will be a D4E on the loans, there will be an additional raise from key investors and that they still don’t have the performance guarantees sorted for the upcoming contract starts (which must put them at risk).

All of that said, it makes no sense for a short with 0.8% to have closed their position on Friday.

Who knows what the hell is going on?

I’m fairly certain that if the EoY results are as expected and they are issued late next week without an additional update……we’ll be back below 20p.

Fingers crossed for some good news (hopefully a hostile takeover).

After selling 10% of my holding at 25p on Friday I've just bought them back again at 23.7p.

F*ck it. It’s still a mad gamble but I’ve come this far with all of the chips on the table so let’s see…..

Again an unusually vague notification from the company. This is good news why not shout about it more? How much is the contract extension worth? “Many millions”? Previous extensions have been specific about contract value.

Why couldn’t this news have been released alongside the disruptive RNS on Friday?

Definitely something fishy going on but as usual I can’t work out what’s going on!

If we see a rise today then there has to be something cooking in the background.

This is going to sound negative, but as LTH’s I’m struggling to see how we win following the latest RNS.

My only objectives since Christmas have been to break even at c60p and exit at £1. For the first time in a while, I can’t see how we get there.

D4E dilutes PI’s holding, it’s just a question of by how much.

“Going to major shareholders for funds” = a raise and again dilutes PI’s

STILL not securing performance guarantees puts existing contracts at risk. If we lose one the SP will crater.

No significant new business since Dec and nothing further on the Meek reported new contracts.

EOY results still to be issued which we know are going to be poor and which will put downward pressure on the SP when released.

Why was that nothing burger RNS put out on Friday? It really looks like it was only done to kill and reverse the SP momentum.

Why did the SP hold up at 26.5p which was still c8% up on the week with strong buying after the initial dip. It looks like someone is accumulating.

It all smells very VERY fishy to me.

I took 34k shares off the table at 25p on Friday, about 10% of my holding. Something I thought I’d never do. And do you know what, I actually feel pretty good about it (although I’ll buy back in if it drops to sub 23p).

If this is all a game for a lowball takeover offer, I’d actually see that as a win if it was at the 50p level, even though that would mean a loss.

Sorry to be so negative and I’m really hoping someone can point out a more positive scenario that I’ve missed??

Thanks for asking the question, I’ve been wondering the same.

What will a D4E at 25p actually mean?

Assuming that it doubles the available shares at close of play on day X and the new shares are issued to banks at 25p and further assuming that the closing price prior to the additional shares being issued is also 25p…….does that mean that the market could open the following day at 25p?

If so then I assume that the negative impact on existing shareholders would be that any future grown would be at half the previous rate given the new market cap and additional shares?

Is that correct?

This share will be the death of me. I’ve held off commenting this morning as I wanted to be constructive….but I’m just not seeing any positives.

I went to bed last night happy in the warm glow of 4 days of nice uplifts.

At the back of my mind I thought we might see a measured dip today but not this and certainly not an RNS so badly worded and positioned that a huge drop was inevitable.

I m struggling to see any good news at all. Despite there not being any actual firm information, it looks clear that the solution is likely to me a mixture of D4E, a possible raise on top plus ongoing concerns over guarantees that puts the order book at risk.

I’m struggling to see any positives.

I’m also struggling to see why they put the RNS out at all other than as a deliberate move to reverse the gains seen this week. But why?

It’s been 4.5 months since the December update and it looks like nothing has been resolved. I’m starting to worry as well that we’ve seen no new contracts awarded in that time, just extensions of existing contracts.

I don’t mind admitting that I was hovering over the sell button at 26p this morning.

With the upcoming results likely to be as bad as we’re all expecting, I can’t now see any positive news coming to counter it.

Sorry to be so negative but I’m trying to work out how we move upwards from here with out a multi year wait to recoup LTH’s investments?

This could get messy at 8.

F*ck.

Pitched to sound like new analysis and to scare LTH’s, but after reading the posts below twice I realised that there isn’t anything in here that we haven’t debated a dozen times already eg the Paul Curtis endless bond discussions.

I’m still half expecting a downward spike tomorrow as we’ve seen 3 pump and dumps since December, but if we see another lift tomorrow then I think we may well be turning a corner.

Will be interesting to see the next short report as well to see if there has been a decrease

Who knows…..we might even see an RNS for breakfast.

Holding !!

Nice to see the return to the 30’s, although it’s a shame that it looks like 32p won’t hold again.

Also nice to see the £ holding back into 6 figures for the first time in a while……although I’m still just about 50% down from break even.

Like others im hoping it’s not another pump and dump. If you look at the timing it could be as there are still a couple of weeks to get it back down to c24p before the likely RNS at the end of the month.

I still fell that the SP doubles on the results being as expected and a positive RNS on finances. I’d rather that happen at 30p than 24p.

If I was braver I’d dump 50k now to re buy after a drop. But with the end of a very long tunnel in sight, I’m not going to take that risk.

Holding firm and hoping beyond hope that the end of month brings the news we all desperately want.

Yep these are definitely RSA’s maturing from an executive equity incentive scheme. If you look at the report a number of other directors are showing purchases of £4999 in PFC stock.

These are share releases from the scheme that happen automatically at either 3 month or 12 month intervals for the duration of the scheme , irrespective of current SP considerations.

To be honest if they were buying such small amounts on their own initiative, given their likely salaries, i’d be more worried about their lack of faith in the future prospects of the business!

One small plus for me today. With the start of the new tax year, today’s dip means that I can shelter my last 75k Petrofac shares in my ISA utilising the new allowance.

Thats my entire PFC holding now held within my SIPP and ISA ready for profits to be tax free when the share explodes!

Yes that might be wishful thinking, but what else can we do while we wait for our fate to be decided?

Not too long to go now. Hopefully financial restructuring & results announcements by the 30th…:..with another new contract RNS as the cherry on top please!

My current thoughts on what will happen leaving a long March and moving into what’s going to feel like an even longer April -

Administration? - highly unlikely

D4E? - makes no sense at the current market cap. Raises next to nothing even at a 3x or 4x level

Short term financing - I still think we’ll see a mixture of renegotiated loans (both the 2024 & 2026 due loans), non core asset sales and a new arrangement for pre contract guarantees.

Results - my worry is that we see the results issued with a delay to the financial restructuring announcement. For me this pushes the SP sub 20p even if the results are inline with expectations. On the upside we may see shorters taking profits and exiting on the dip.

If we see an announcement of results and a financial solution as per above, I’d see a doubling of the SP to 55p on day 1 with a dreading increase up to 70-80p over the next couple of months. Good mid year results would bump it over the £1 mark. Further new contracts would also give a boost. I think these predictions are realistic is you use say the Wood Grouo Sp performance and results as a sector comparison.

I might be wrong, and it wouldn’t be the first time!

I’m wondering if yesterday’s boost was due to investors moving away from Wood Group and into Petrofac following their results yesterday?

My reading of the results were that they were pretty good but that growth and restructuring will mean a long haul before Wood fully realise their potential.

Petrofac on the other hand looks horribly oversold with a bigger order book (albeit with a much larger short term risk).

Wood shares are down 12% from yesterday morning, mirroring the PFC boost.

Might just be coincidence.

Other than a year end shuffle I can’t see a reason for a short reduction or a PI move on no news.

A leak on the short term financing is unlikely.

Anyway, let’s see if we can stay around 28 today which will be a good result.

Holding, not selling!

True Pokerchips, but with contract staff you carry the cost within the lifetime of the project (albeit at a slight premium) whereas staff on the payroll are an ongoing cost month in month out, irrespective of workload.

Part of today’s announcement from Wood was highlighting dramatic headcount reduction over the coming years.

It could be that they are moving to a model closer to that of Petrofac moving forward?

Not sure why you think I used to work for Petrofac Cuban? I never have and have no working experience in the sector.

My misspelled username refers to the length of time if been invested in this share!

Wood having 4x the payroll of Petrofac and only 3 quarters of the contract pipeline only goes to strengthen my point about how undervalued the business is at the current sp levels.

As for a pension deficit. It’s never been mentioned or reported as a concern in any of the Petrofac reporting or in any analysis that I’ve read. Where are you getting your information if you’re saying there is a pension issue?

As we await the Petrofac results news and the update on financing, it’s interesting to read up on what the reaction to the Wood Groups results today.

A pretty good set overall but the share price saw an initial 5% dip this morning (now recovering).

The most interesting part for me is that their order book stands at just £6.3b despite being such a huge business with double the employees of Petrofac.

It suggests to me that PFC are significantly undervalued.

https://dailybusinessgroup.co.uk/2024/03/wood-launches-60m-annual-savings-programme/amp/

A couple of things stand out in the article.

Firstly the author is an anonymous pseudonym, never a good sign.

Secondly, almost half the Petrofac section focuses on the long dead SFO case.

When read in isolation it’s a bit unsettling, but in reality it’s not telling us anything we don’t already know.

Just in case any newer members are concerned by Snappers posts, it’s only fair that you should be aware that in his older posts he show that he is a disgruntled former employee who has held a grudge against the company for years.

For those that can be bothered, scroll back to his post from 25th of September 2020 where he actually details his former role within the business.

Any insight he had is now long out of date and he’s been predicting the imminent demise of Petrofac for half a decade now.

It’s great to have different point of views on this board but this guy has one agenda, to undermine Petrofac at every opportunity and to unsettle investors.

These 6 weeks are going to crawl by.

I think we’re all going to have speculated to death every possible scenario / outcome by the time an announcement is finally made.

My current take is that while I’d love to see a takeover offer, I’m not sure we’ll see it in the short term.

I still can’t see the value or logic of a placing. If one was announced we would see the SP drop perhaps to the 10p level. A 4x placing at that level would raise only c£200m. Not worth it.

I still think that the combination of revenue from completed contracts, payments from Tennet and ADNOC new contracts, the sale of non core assets, smaller contracts such as the £200m continuation agreement announced last week, combined with a renegotiation of the banking facility due to expire in October will be enough to get the company through this financial squeeze.

I’m interested to know who is selling in the background and driving this current decline. Shorts are reducing so it’s unlikely to be them. I can’t see LTH PI’s bailing at this late stage……so it must be an II disposing in the background. Let’s see if there’s a TR1 in the near future.

A large contract RNS would be great to see, otherwise good luck everyone as the long wait continues.