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I suspect the lack of date will be down to an internal discussion about whether to delay the EOY reporting until April (as they did last year, albeit for different reasons).
It will be tempting I’m sure for them to hold off until the short term funding solutions are finalised so that they can be announced at the same time. We can all guess that last years results are going to be pretty bad even with the mid year write down contingency.
Another reason for a delay would be to allow more time for the legacy contract payments to be finalised.
Personally I’m happy to wait until April. Imaging the boost of seeing last years results coupled with a funding solution and the drawing of a line under legacy projects…..huge positive momentum would follow.
Let’s see though. As others have said, there has to be a 28 day notification window for any results (or im assuming notification of a delay), so we should hear at least something in the next few days…..
I suspect Helikon may just have been freeing up a small amount of funding to cover the ongoing associated costs of keeping their shorts open for an extended period.
If so, it’s somewhat ironic that they are also experiencing a short term cash flow/ funding issue…..
My view here is that if we had seen a TR1 on the 1st of December, it would have been catastrophic for the share price.
Before the RNS on the 4th, it was absolute panic for LT PI’s (including me) as administration seemed to be real possibility. The sp was sub 20p and shorts were increasing daily.
I think if the schroders news had broken on the 1st of December combined with the funding RNS on the 4th, we would have seen complete capitulation and a sub 10p sp.
I know how I was feeling at the time and I think even I might have bailed at that point taking a massive loss.
So in my book the delayed notification was actually a godsend for PI’s.
I agree with the wider point that there have definitely been nefarious shenanigans going on over the last 6 months and PI’s have been in the dark, but in this case I think it actually worked in our favour.
Thoughts?
Thanks for the advice Mary.
This is probably my last big gamble in life.
If I’m wrong my home is still secure, my pension is secure and I have some other non equity investments.
It will absolutely mean that I will need to work a few years more than I wanted to, but my eyes are open to that.
My experience of life to date is that it’s the missed opportunities that hurt the most. Where you could have gone for it but held back and missed the chance to really change your stars.
PFC is an educated coin toss, but if that RNS comes out with no dilution and a short term funding fix……
*****I don’t advise anyone else to copy my approach. It’s definitely stupid 😊😬 *****
I unblocked Tony temporarily as I guessed he’d been posting sh*t about me.
Wasn’t really worth it. He’s not exactly blessed with an engaging turn of phase is he?
Why would I lie about my average or holding Tony? It only shows my mostly terrible investment decisions so it’s not exactly a boast is it?
Charming comments about my marital status. I assume that yours is mostly memorialised with restraining orders and CCJ’s? We all have our crosses to carry.
I wish I was as good a human being as other posters like Mary who give you chance after chance to mend your ways.
I’m just going to put you back in your green filter coffin.
Cheerio!
Probably a smart move on your part 66. Not convinced we’ll see 25p again in this window, as it seems to be playing between the 27.5p to 33p range over the last few weeks.
Hopefully I can boost my holding a little bit more by day trading in that range.
Bolland - looks like we clicked the top up button at about the same time!
Good luck guys 👍
Bought my final top up today ahead of the year end report at the end of March (probably).
Went in at 28.8p which wasn’t clever. As usual there was a dip about 5 minutes later!
I’m going to try and dabble in day trading with a percentage of my additional holding to try and take advantage of the daily swings / spread, but will always aim to be back in before close of trade to protect against being caught out by an unexpected RNS.
I suspect it’s going to be a slow 6 weeks waiting for my future to be decided! Melodramatic but accurate !!
It looks like we have moved into a period of low activity.
Maybe everyone has made their respective plays and we are all in a state of hibernation, awaiting the next RNS from the PFC board…..
I wonder how long we’ll all have to wait?
Paul, life is too short to have us answer your questions with our opinions and for you to then ask the same questions again. We disagree in our analysis….and that’s fine.
We had this last time you surfaced with your questions about shorts not decreasing.
I don’t believe there will be an equity raise. I don’t believe therefore that there is an inherent risk to bond holders or to shareholders. Others disagree which is why the bond and share values are where they are at present.
You may be right, I may be right. Not sure why you’re struggling with this concept?
Re the bonds, the hierarchy issue is not likely to be the relevant determining factor if there is no dilution or administration.
The pressure on the bonds is more likely to be based on the speculation that any bond based refinancing will put pressure on existing bond holders to accept a variation.
Thats my reading of it.
I suspect that ultimately there is a solution that will not impair shareholders or bond holders.
We’re already 6 weeks into the year. Revenue will be coming in from the first Tennet contract and judging by comments in the last update, legacy contracts should mostly have settled by this point (for better or worse).
Cheer up fella. The glass is half full!
Paul, most of us have been here for a long time invested in this share and have a good understanding of the risks involved with investing in the company.
We’ve seen some awful times over the last near decade with very little good news and very few opportunities to bring huge averages down.
The current situation is not the worst that Petrofac has been through. The SFO investigation felt like a never ending black hole, followed by no new contracts, an ADNOC ban and then COVID.
Investing here is 100% a gamble but based on the known variables, it’s one I’m comfortable making.
I’m taking comfort in the fact that short position growth has stalled, increasing only 0.2% in the last 6 weeks.
The bonds are perhaps more vulnerable to the likely financial restructure than equity in my opinion. A raise at this level will not raise enough to justify the dilution.
Sentiment is important, and I think the tide is turning in favour of those who are going long.
It all depends on the next RNS……..
It’s sounds like quite a few of us are in a similar position.
I’m jealous of your average Amers! You’re in a great position to capitalise if we see that breakout!
I don’t mind sharing my position. I’m now holding just over 330k shares at an average of just over 59p. A scary c£200k invested.
I don’t recommend anyone follow my strategy which will shortly be all of my eggs in the PFC basket, including some 0% credit card borrowing that lasts until mid 25 (I know, I know!!).
My pension is still diversified and separate so I won’t be penniless, but I definitely won’t be retiring for another decade if this goes badly south.
Those of you who were here in late December know that I was pretty despairing of the position as I thought losing everything was a real risk.
It’s still a massive gamble IMO, but having been in this share for so long I’ve made another fatal error of becoming attached.
In terms of ISA split. Having held so long, most of my expensive PFC holdings are in the ISA which is currently 80% down, meaning when the profit comes (hopefully) most of it will be outside the ISA wrapper.
In short, my strategy is a perfect example of how NOT to do it, so please don’t anyone copy it.
In an ideal world I’d try something similar to Mary’s approach. Sensible, pragmatic & disciplined….
Good luck to everyone, (even the green boxed blocked nutters)
A good day.
With no update since the December 20th news, I’m starting to feel more and more confident about a positive non-dilutive funding solution.
We’re already 6 weeks into the new year and no news is almost certainly good news.
We know from recent buying that there is probably II investment happening in the background.
Shorts are holding (probably working on the basis that there won’t be an update until March which gives them time to potentially mitigate possible losses).
With all the above in mind, I’ve decided to sell all my remaining non pension holdings held elsewhere and to put all my eggs in the PFC basket.
Bought more today bringing my average down below 60p and will keep plugging away (blocked and almost forgotten 😂) to drop feed more in over the next few weeks.
Gulp, all or nothing here we go!! Retirement or working until I die?
Has anyone seen anything definitive about a Feb update?
A few people have mentioned it but I haven’t been able to find anything official that references it.
If memory serves we didn’t get an EOY report until April last year.
Has anyone seen a date published anywhere?
Great day.
I wonder if we’re seeing a new II taking a position?
Great news if so, as it makes it less and less likely that we’ll see any sort of raise impacting LTH’s. II’s are unlikely to take a large holding without confidence that their investment won’t be diluted.
Stating the obvious, but the more organic growth that we can see to the SP before any RNS……the higher the jump when we see a double up on the back of the anticipated news about a positive short term funding solution!
Thanks for sharing J, and well done in a response from Petrofac IR, they are less than useless most of the time.
That said, what an unhelpful response!
Personally though I’m glad that we didn’t get notification of the Schroeder’s divestment on the 1st of December. I was struggling to sleep and was paranoid that I was about to lose everything. This news would have pushed me over the edge and I’m sure we’d have seen an even bigger dip in SP.
It does seem fishy that the RNS was issued shortly afterwards on the 4th. I suspect it was a knee jerk response to the Schroders news that finally made the company realise that they had to make some kind of statement.