Member Info for PFCvetran

This would make sense if the market cap wasn’t already in the toilet.

Even extreme dilution (x3?)at this level wouldn’t raise enough to cover the debt.

A few more contracts like todays….£200m over 3 yr, no guarantee….and the cash flow moving into H2 2024 / 2025 becomes much more palatable.

I was pretty disappointed by the “no new news” RNS earlier in the week, but after today’s RNS I think I was just failing to see the big picture.

I suspect what we’re actually seeing is a smart move by the BoD to control the narrative in the build up towards the EoY results and the funding update in April.

It’ll be interesting to see if there are any further contract announcements in the coming weeks.

I also like that the company is prioritising new work that fits in with the current commercial reality in which the business is operating. A smart 3yr continuation project of £200m, potentially driving £70m cash flow in year with no guarantee issues is smart business.

Feeling much more confident going into the weekend (although it would have been nice to see the 12% uplift in the SP this morning hold).

Someone is playing a good game today.

If only we know the rules we could join in.

We’ve got another 6 weeks of this 🙄

Paul- you’ve asked me and other posters a variation of this question multiple times.

We’ve all answered you with our opinions multiple times.

You then disappear for a bit, and after a while (usually a dip in SP) you come back and ask the same questions again.

You’ll excuse me if I step off that particular Groundhog Day roundabout.

You have your opinion, I have mine. At some point we’ll see who is right……..

Onwards……you’re bang on with your comments about Investor Relations at PFC. Arrogant, unhelpful, and terrible communication.

Definitely change needed, and the AGM would be a good opportunity to voice the concerns of PI’s who make up the majority of the company shareholder base.

I respect the BoD saying that they are not going to maintain a running commentary, but this weeks flaccid & poorly positioned RNS shows once again the disregard for market sentiment and poor timing shown by the company IR team.

The BNN article is actually quite balanced and the substance only really reflects what we already know (albeit with some specifics around the financing proposal that, if accurate, haven’t previously been released, but again aren’t really anything we didn’t already imagine was happening).

I actually take comfort from the positioning that this situation isn’t unique to Petrofac within the sector. It means that a revised funding approach / solution will need to be found if the sector as a whole is to move forward in a changing landscape.

The only point that raised my eyebrows was the mention of job cuts. I’ve seen nothing on this anywhere. Indeed my impression is that the company has been recruiting and expanding for months now.

Does anyone have a source or reference for the job cuts mentioned?

Overall I feel a bit more twitchy than I did last week, and the RNS hasn’t really helped boost my confidence. However, objectively there’s no new news, no bad news and we’re exactly where we were at the turn of the year.

Zero point in contemplating selling if you’re a LTH imo so the game continues!

No short increase either……

Alright. So it wasn’t the game changing RNS that we’ve all been waiting for, but equally there’s no bad news in todays announcement and some clues that things are moving in the direction that shareholders have been hoping for.

More than anything it once again shows how bad PFC are at investor relations though lol. It reads like it was written by the work experience person and was issued in a rush after yesterday’s big drop. If they’d issued this a week ago when we were steady at 30p I think we’d have seen a marked jump upwards. By issuing it today it just looks weak and I suspect it will have little impact on the price.

At least we now know that a raise is very unlikely and that the results will be out in April rather than March along with a proper update.

Holding of course, and we trundle on for another month.

Unfortunately Apothecary the last of my funds went in at 30.4p and 28.8p literally two days before we saw the start of this latest decline. If I’d done more research about the share falling out of the index I would have held fire just in case. Live and learn!

I’m still expecting the positive RNS but would much rather have it come out with the SP in the 28-30p range rather than the current low 20’s as I’m expecting it to at least double on positive news.

Unless shorts increased today (which I guess we’ll know tomorrow), it does look like someone is offloading in the background. Maybe Schroeders getting rid of the rump of their remaining holding?

I think they are below the threshold for a TR1 now so we wouldn’t get a notification.

It’s annoying to see a dip like this but as always, I’m still holding!

It’ll be interesting to see the shorts data trot the end of last week today.

If the shorts are still decreasing slowly and not increasing their position (which seems to be the case), I wonder if that means another II is reducing their holding in the background.

It’s unlikely that many LTH’s will be reducing now after 3 months of waiting when an update is likely to be made soon.

It feels orchestrated whatever is happening……above our pay grade as private investors 😊

Uncomfortable to see it back at this level again but nothing has changed and I’ll continue to hold!!

Everything is relative Amers but I totally understand your concerns. From my perspective you’re in a fantastic position with that average.

Mine is still just under 60p after years of averaging down and I know there are plenty on here who are North of that.

I’m kicking myself that I hadn’t anticipated a drop from falling out of the index, there could have been some good day trading wins there…. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!

As Yorkshire says, nothing has changed in terms of news and it still all depends on the next RNS.

It’ll be interesting to see if this dip was short driven (I suspect not).

Soon do you think Mary? It’d be nice to get a bump upwards ahead of the end of the tax year

I suspect the lack of date will be down to an internal discussion about whether to delay the EOY reporting until April (as they did last year, albeit for different reasons).

It will be tempting I’m sure for them to hold off until the short term funding solutions are finalised so that they can be announced at the same time. We can all guess that last years results are going to be pretty bad even with the mid year write down contingency.

Another reason for a delay would be to allow more time for the legacy contract payments to be finalised.

Personally I’m happy to wait until April. Imaging the boost of seeing last years results coupled with a funding solution and the drawing of a line under legacy projects…..huge positive momentum would follow.

Let’s see though. As others have said, there has to be a 28 day notification window for any results (or im assuming notification of a delay), so we should hear at least something in the next few days…..

I note from your posting history on the Helium One board today that you also have a family member with access to inside info re HE1?

Inside info from Petrofac as well? You’re a well connected person …….

I suspect Helikon may just have been freeing up a small amount of funding to cover the ongoing associated costs of keeping their shorts open for an extended period.

If so, it’s somewhat ironic that they are also experiencing a short term cash flow/ funding issue…..

My view here is that if we had seen a TR1 on the 1st of December, it would have been catastrophic for the share price.

Before the RNS on the 4th, it was absolute panic for LT PI’s (including me) as administration seemed to be real possibility. The sp was sub 20p and shorts were increasing daily.

I think if the schroders news had broken on the 1st of December combined with the funding RNS on the 4th, we would have seen complete capitulation and a sub 10p sp.

I know how I was feeling at the time and I think even I might have bailed at that point taking a massive loss.

So in my book the delayed notification was actually a godsend for PI’s.

I agree with the wider point that there have definitely been nefarious shenanigans going on over the last 6 months and PI’s have been in the dark, but in this case I think it actually worked in our favour.

Thoughts?

Thanks for the advice Mary.

This is probably my last big gamble in life.

If I’m wrong my home is still secure, my pension is secure and I have some other non equity investments.

It will absolutely mean that I will need to work a few years more than I wanted to, but my eyes are open to that.

My experience of life to date is that it’s the missed opportunities that hurt the most. Where you could have gone for it but held back and missed the chance to really change your stars.

PFC is an educated coin toss, but if that RNS comes out with no dilution and a short term funding fix……

*****I don’t advise anyone else to copy my approach. It’s definitely stupid 😊😬 *****

I unblocked Tony temporarily as I guessed he’d been posting sh*t about me.

Wasn’t really worth it. He’s not exactly blessed with an engaging turn of phase is he?

Why would I lie about my average or holding Tony? It only shows my mostly terrible investment decisions so it’s not exactly a boast is it?

Charming comments about my marital status. I assume that yours is mostly memorialised with restraining orders and CCJ’s? We all have our crosses to carry.

I wish I was as good a human being as other posters like Mary who give you chance after chance to mend your ways.

I’m just going to put you back in your green filter coffin.

Cheerio!

Probably a smart move on your part 66. Not convinced we’ll see 25p again in this window, as it seems to be playing between the 27.5p to 33p range over the last few weeks.

Hopefully I can boost my holding a little bit more by day trading in that range.

Bolland - looks like we clicked the top up button at about the same time!

Good luck guys 👍

Bought my final top up today ahead of the year end report at the end of March (probably).

Went in at 28.8p which wasn’t clever. As usual there was a dip about 5 minutes later!

I’m going to try and dabble in day trading with a percentage of my additional holding to try and take advantage of the daily swings / spread, but will always aim to be back in before close of trade to protect against being caught out by an unexpected RNS.

I suspect it’s going to be a slow 6 weeks waiting for my future to be decided! Melodramatic but accurate !!