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Whatever happens on open, I’m holding.
This is an update for the future and for growth.
Before the SP collapse that started in October, my long term 2024 year end target was 200p. I see no reason from this update why that still shouldn’t be my target.
Over these 3 terrible months many of us LTH’s have been able to reduce our averages (and probably our life expectancy), and come out of this with a hugely strengthened position.
I don’t care that much what happens at 8am now (unless it goes stupidly stratospheric), the future looks bright for 2024.
Well done to everyone who kept the faith!
Neil, honestly fella I’m so sad you get satisfaction from this kind of sad gloating from the sidelines. Looking at your profile I can see that you’ve been doing the same on the ENET board today as well.
I know it’s tough at Christmas sitting there on your own with just the keyboard for company.
Watch “A Christmas Carol”. I’m guessing you’ve left it late in the day old fella, but there’s still time to turn your life around. Find your Tiny Tim and do something to make him happy. God bless us every one etc
If the update doesn’t provide all the answers tomorrow (and let’s be honest, it probably won’t), a massive indicator of sentiment will be whether we see any Director buys as we enter the post update period..
I don’t believe I’ve seen any of the newer Directors make any notable purchases this year (outside of their contractual equity awards).
It would be a massive sign of support and a clear sign that dilution is unlikely if we saw some personal investment from the Board before the end of the year.
Thoughts?
Putting aside the “moths” who have been drawn to this board by the flame of PFC drama over the last few weeks, most LTH’s are battle scarred and used to the twists and turns of this share over the years.
We know that the company is in a better position than the SFO years. We’ve been through the ADNOC freeze, the 115p dilution and the COVID share price further collapse.
We know the journey that this company has been on over the years and we know painfully how much we’ve all had to invest to average down through that period.
None of our key II’s have bailed out, including Asfari. They’ve been on the same painful journey.
I don’t know any LTH’s who’ve sold during this last terrible two months. I’ve seen no TR1’s from II’s during this period.
We’re all in too deep and we’re not selling.
So given that the above accounts for over 60% of the business, I think we should be more confident going into Wednesday.
The shorts have exploited a gap between a £600k contract announcement and a trading update, presumably aided by a leak that was finally covered by the company in the 4th of December RNS.
Unless we have all been massively deceived by the BOD, I don’t think Wednesday will eb that bad. We’ll see a dip, but then 9 out of 10 of the last updates have resulted in a dip. Let’s be honest, there’s not much left to dip……and none of us are selling.
Hold firm and f**k the spectators who are just here for a show.
It looks like the share price will continue to be managed within a tight band around the 20p mark, right into Wednesday.
It suggests no significant exit of shorts, who presumably are now happy to hold position at c9% through until the company update.
My current thoughts are that it’s unlikely that there will be a sliver bullet either way in the update. The key messages around liquidity, debt reduction, legacy contracts and pre contract funding will obviously drive sentiment. Clarity around the likelihood of a RI or other dilution will be vital for LTH’s confidence.
Unfortunately over the years PFC have become notorious for woolly, ambiguous trading updates that rarely reflect PI concerns or overriding sentiment. Hopefully we’ll see less of that arrogance this time round with a clear statement of intent and evidence of real leadership and vision from the CEO.
With no further official update due until April, a commitment for monthly updates would be something I’d like to see, although it’s unlikely.
If this was a TV drama, you’d say it was dragging on about 3 episodes too long and that the plot was starting to repeat itself lol.
Tired of being in a constant state of cat like readiness and tension.
Roll on Wednesday and put us all out of our misery!
The limited short reduction seems to be a controlled partial withdrawal rather than any sort of panic, so unless there’s news over the weekend I suspect the SP will continue much as it has this week moving into Monday and Tuesday.
Good luck to my fellow LTH’s.
Nearly there one way or another!
I’m still here Apothecary. Just keeping my powder dry and watching the week unfold.
It does feel like the shorts are having one more stab to push us lower before the update.
I think my current thought are that the update next week won’t be all shiny and positive, but neither will it be terminal.
I think it will show some progress against the overall debt but I also suspect some questions around cash flow will be frustratingly TBC.
I think my mood will turn darker if we’re not seeing the shorts decreasing Monday & Tuesday. Unless there is a leak, why would you take such an almighty risk (some are at circa 2.5%) going into the update and the holiday closedown period?
Not selling. Holding!
It’s going to be an interesting week in the run up to the 20th.
Best case, I’m hoping for a surprise RNS about a new contract.
Tennet confirming the progressing of the second contract would also be perfect timing.
With no further news I’d be surprised to see shorts moving above 10%. If they do then it looks like there definitely is a leak.
I’d anticipate some of them closing their positions ahead of the weekend, especially those who were in earlier in the SP slide.
SP? Who knows but I was pleased to see resistance at the c20p mark for most of the week.
I think a rights issue is unlikely, but at these levels it would at least be cheaper for LTH’s to maintain the value of their holdings.
Still feeling very nervous, but more positive than the last couple of Sundays.
Not selling. Holding.
Sounds like we’ve got a similar amount on the table fella. I first invested in this bloody company in 2014 and it’s been a downward slide ever since.
I took a gamble on Friday that really helped my average. Just panic if I’m honest.
Fingers crossed it pays off for both of us. A better couple of days and hopefully good news on the 20th. Good luck.
Fair comment Oilheadgame but I’ve followed this down from being caught out at 900p before the SFO investigation hit.
On the way down I’ve been caught out several times trying to average down.
I’m pleased to be at 61p in that context but in terms of risk, it’s cost me the farm to get here and a final expensive leap of faith at 17p on Friday.
I thought my post was pretty positive compared to most of the paranoid misery I’ve been posting for the last couple of weeks!
I added late on Friday just before close.
My thought process is that I can make an incremental difference to my break even by averaging down at this level. I’m already massively over exposed so it doesn’t really make a difference in terms of the trouble I’m in if there’s a failure here.
My average is now 61p but I’m way beyond all in now.
My positive interpretation of next weeks possible events are -
1. Those in short positions, especially late joiners to the party, must be nervous.
2. There is a realistic chance that the second Tennet contract will be signed and announced before the 20th.
3. An RNS announcing a new ADNOC or other deal is still a real possibility before the 20th. We know PFC are at preferred bidder stage in a number of negotiations
4. The first loans are not due for repayment until October next year and we know that revenue will be flooding in for Q1 onwards from the new contracts
5. Nothing new in the press this weekend. Is it really likely that a leak would reach a myriad of shorters but that no one in the press would pick it up?
6. BOD silence. I said this last week, but it does now start to look like a positive, especially after Fridays hammering. Surely if there was material bad news they would have had to say something after a 50%+ drop in a week? There must also be a calculation from the shorters fearing a positive statement next week ahead of the 20th.
7. What are the BOD going to say on the 20th? The price already reflects a catastrophic rise in debt, a breach of covenants being enforced by banks and Dfor E etc.
Is it really likely to be all of these? More likely a near miss on the anticipated debt repayment for 2023.
It will be very interesting to see what happens at 8am tomorrow.
Not selling. Holding.
I was probably out of order Pokerchips. It was just seeing you join in the “amusing” Petrofac name derivations pushed my buttons on a very bad day.
I’m totally screwed if this goes under and I’m struggling a bit with it all, so apologies for snapping at you.
It’s not going to make it to the 20th.
All these years and so much money wasted waiting for it to turn and now it’s falling at the final hurdle.
I can’t find anything positive to say at all seeing what’s happening today.
Can’t sell and take such a massive loss.
Absolute despair.
BOD silence is now actually a positive. I read it to mean that there is no material change or risk that they are obligated to report.
Both Institutional and Long PI’s are holding.
New shorts are over exposed and entering at unsustainable levels.
One positive RNS (a COP28 deal or the second Tennet deal) will knock the first domino.