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Another awful day for long term holders.
The saddest thing for me though has been watching the number of new people coming to the board just to gloat over recent days and especially today.
These folks clearly aren’t invested in PFC and if you look at their posting histories, post normally on other boards.
However they feel the need to come on here and goad LTH’s or quote obvious data / stats that we’ve all seen a million times before.
Lots of us on here are facing massive losses. If you’re trying to make us feel worse, well done. If you’re trying to make us sell…..no chance.
It’s a really sad trait guys. We’ve got our fair share of long term trolls who most of use have filtered. Be better.
In the absence of any actual updates or RNS, and with a month to go until the formal update. I thought I’d do a few pro’s and con’s to help settle the nerves
Pro’s
1. Biggest contract backlog ever
2. New markets with huge contracts ((wind / carbon capture)
3. ADNOC love affair rekindled
4. Fitch re-rate
5. Huge recruitment drive underway
6. Circa £40billion of contracts still to be awarded
7. Second Tennet award imminent
8. Even if the update is worse than expected, loan repayments aren’t due until Oct 24 at the earliest
Con’s
1. Short term cash flow concerns as old contracts end and we wait for new contracts to feed through
2. Silence from BOD ahead of update allowing rumour and uncertainty to thrive and shorters to rule
3. If the December update is bad, there are no further updates until April 2024 at the earliest to boost the SP. Any price recovery will be down to contract news.
Makes me feel better looking at it like this. I mean, why wouldn’t you hold?
Holding & waiting!!
Obviously we can’t continue on this trajectory of decline until the 20th of December……we’d be at zero long before that date.
Surely it can’t go into the 20’s? But then I said that about the 50’s, 40’s and 30’s.
It’s got to be shaky ground for those in a short position. Surely they can’t risk waiting for the update, and a new contract could be announced any day.
So what’s the play here? Where do the shorts draw the line?
Where does someone with deep pockets step in and start to buy up a hefty share of this business?
Curious to know what people think (don’t bother Tony, Snapper, Dogger…..you’re all filtered lol)?
Yep filtering those guys was the best thing I’ve done in the last month after years of putting up with them posting the same cut & paste doom during every dip.
I think most on here have done the same now so they are just shouting into the empty void, lonely and irrelevant!
Sorry to hear you’re in the same boat SM66, although you’ve done well to av down to 66p.
Even with all the additional averaging down and over exposure over recent weeks, I’m still at a 94p average.
A sharp upswing before Christmas would be extremely comforting.
Let’s hope the BOD accentuate the positive in the Dec update!
Sorry all.
Had a weak moment posting that.
Have sat myself down and given myself a good talking to.
Reminded myself that ……
- the order book is huge
- the ME situation doesn’t affect us directly
- even a bad position on legacy debt is manageable with the banking covenants that are in place.
- The next phase of the Tennet deal could be announced any day.
- More ADNOC contracts pending
I’ve even just added a few more at 37.8p (not many as I’m skint, but a gesture none the less).
I’m back in the boat, sorry again. Eyes to the horizon!
I can’t believe it.
Never thought it would get this low.
There’s clearly something that we’re not being told that has been leaked.
I put further nails in my own coffin on the way down by averaging down significantly at 70p, 60p and 45p thinking”this must be the bottom”.
I am now massively over exposed. Stupid.
Silence from IR and the BOD now has to be interpreted as bad news.
Some will say that a bad update is now factored into the price. That is never the case with PFC updates. Nearly always down afterwards.
Not selling. What would be the point? Ruined. Stupid.
I finally took the advice of several regular posters here and filtered the worst de-ramping offenders.
It’s actually very therapeutic not to have to read the same repeated points that they’ve been posting for the last 5+ years.
I highly recommend it.
Just go to the filter button above, type in their usernames and leave them to shout into the void, alone & forgotten …..
Thanks all. I can’t believe that a rights issue is imminent at this level. It would make no sense and be catastrophic for the medium term value of the business.
If you’d asked me a month ago about a takeover I’d have said no thank you. I’d welcome it now vs the alternative!
I keep coming back to the fundamentals though. Even if the costs position in the update is worse than forecasted, the new contracts and resulting revenue growth next year and in subsequent years has to turn the tide during 2024 and the current banking agreements run until October 2024.
The 12th of December feels like a VERY long time away.
What’s the likelihood of an interim RNS or statement from the BOD……or even from Investor Relations (I’m assuming that they only use that name ironically)?
Would it be uncommon to make a statement in this situation in response to such a huge drop ? Or should we infer bad news from the silence?
I’m hoping that someone wiser than me can give a view on whether this is BAU behaviour or if most companies would be reacting to such a market rout?
Still holding but I don’t think I’ve ever been so angry about the market behaviour of a share given all the positive news and contract awards.
I’m still extremely positive about my long term position here, but I’m getting very frustrated by the radio silence from Investor Relations to investors.
This is a dramatic decline in shareholder value with no obvious explanation. If we carry on with this trajectory, the SP will be in the mid 20’s by the time of the December update.
At that point even if there is a better than expected reporting of the debt position, it will take months to return to the 80p SP that we saw just a few weeks ago.
We’ll then have to wait until Q2 for any further update.
You can see why shorters love this share.
Unless we have been lied to or information is being purposely withheld, I still have absolute faith in the turnaround potential here and I’m not selling……but it’s so frustrating that no one at the company is seeking to dampen down the negative sentiment……
Have been topping up all day.
My average is down to 97p, under £1 for the first time.
I’ve been averaging down since being caught out in the 800p to 900p range years ago, followed by the killer SFO dive in SP.
That’s it now. I’m all in. I’ve freed up funding where I probably shouldn’t have over the last few weeks to invest more here.
Every piece of data tells me that this is the right move and that the turnaround must come in 2024.
If I’m wrong, I’ll be working until I die……….
Very nervously waiting for the Dec update and hoping that 45p holds in the interim.
Very relieved to see this bottom out and bounce.
HOWEVER….I can’t help but feel once again that PFC is a totally manipulated share.
I’m holding long and will continue to do so but seeing yet another massive 40% drop on no news, followed by a bounce on no news just leaves a bad taste in the mouth.
Will continue holding and waiting for a good update in December to cheer us into 2024!
It looks like the SP will hit the previous all time low today.
It’s pretty scary, but I keep looping back to asking what has fundamentally changed over the last month to be driving this slide? The answer is…….nothing.
It would be nice to hear something from the BOD or investor relations but all LT holders know how terrible they are at keeping PI’s updated / reassured.
Madness to even contemplate selling at this level in my opinion with a full order book and the promise of more contracts to come…..
I see I’m being accused of baseless ramping.
I think I’ve been pretty open and honest with my posts that I’m a long term holder since c2014. I’ve taken huge hits over the years with PFC and made significant additional investments to average down to a 111p break-even.
I stand by my assessment that the future has never looked better for PFC in all of that period. A record breaking order book, SFO long in the rear view mirror, a record breaking number of traditional and new technology contracts live in the marketplace where we are in a strong bidding position.
Cash flow and debt is the key risk factor.
If the December update is good then I think my assessment is pretty conservative. If the debt issues persist……well that’s what’s behind the current slide, so to an extent it’s baked in. The banking covenants negotiated earlier this year still have a good slice of time to run and cash will soon be coming in from the new contracts. A takeover is unlikely due to Asfaris holding and a cash raise at this level is meaningless. An extension of current debt is the most likely worst case scenario in my opinion.
Let’s see who’s right in a couple of months…….
To pass the time while we go though this annoying dip, I’ve been trying to map out what the next 24 months might look like.
A lot will be driven by the December statement. If the BOD reports that we’re broadly in line with expectations, especially regarding the debt position, then the last piece of negative sentiment/ risk starts to fall away.
I can see this giving the SP and initial boost followed by a steady climb up above 100p by mid Q1 2024.
Any additional contract wins will give the SP a disproportionate boost in the interim.
If my maths is right, the market cap at this point will see us being added back into the FTSE 250 which should see another leg up in SP
Assuming that the FY results are in line with expectations a further boost up above 200p is not an unreasonable expectation for the summer.
At this point the reintroduction of a dividend is likely to be a hot topic. If hinted at in the December report of 2024 then I can easily see 300p being realistic moving into 2025.
Speculative maybe, but still more realistic than the doom posts we’re seeing on this board at the moment.
I topped up at 70p and again at 60p even though I promised myself I wouldn’t buy any more this year.
As usual I missed the bottom by a mile, but it feels like we’re there now.
Ignore the guys who’ve been posting the same 0p posts since 2017. PFC have their strongest contract pipeline in at least a decade. A strong foot in the future with renewables and a vote of confidence from an old partner with the new ADNOC contract.
The shorters are exploiting the genuine risk around short term cash flow, but the trading update in December will settle that matter.
A positive update on debt and cash flow in line with the previous forecast and there’s no more bad news to short.
Stay strong and look to the horizon.