Member Info for PFCvetran

It’s a bit grumpy on here today.

Firstly I’ll start off with saying that I still don’t think a RI is likely at these levels. But what if it were to happen?

Back a couple of years ago the issue at 115p made zero difference in reality. LTH’s like me had already been on the slide from 900p + over the preceding years and the behaviour and the trajectory of the SP didn’t change.

I took up some of the allocation but the impact on my average was minimal.

So if there is a RI at these levels, what does that mean in terms of the impact on long term share value?

What are the terms of any such issue likely to be?

My break even is still 61p and my long term exit point is still a speculative 200p.

I don’t care how we get there so if a RI helps in the long term (eg shorts exit, short term cash flow solved), is it a problem?

We’re all talking about a RI like it’s the end of the world, but it would be good to have a discussion about what this might actually mean in reality if it were to happen?

Thoughts?

This board (me included) seems to have reverted to the same posts and speculation that we saw in November and December.

It’s as if the Dec 20th update didn’t happen.

Lots of questions still to answer but fundamentally -

1. The company isn’t going under / into admin

2. The company is trading within its covenants, work is starting on secured contracts, and new business is still coming in

3. If there is a raise (I still think this unlikely), so what? When some of us have seen the SP fall from 900p to 25p and have already been through a raise at 115p, I’d accept some dilution to put all of this uncertainty to bed once and for all and to focus on the growth we all know is coming.

Hold, and wait for the next update I say.

Paul - the SFO investigation concluded in 2021 with a c£70m fine, not in 2012 as you state. Short activity was prevalent throughout the investigation period starting in 2016 / 2017.

We saw a brief spike in SP to hit 200p at that point but at the time that wasn’t attributed to any short squeeze.

Either the LTH or the shorts are wrong about an equity raise. If it’s LTH’s then we will lose value in the short term but see exponential growth with over an extended time period as the company recovers. If it’s the shorters that are wrong, they will have either hedged their positions to limit exposure, or they will slip from profit to loss as they are forced to buy back at higher levels.

There are other ways things could spin out, but fundamentally those options seem to be the coin toss?

Not sure what else you need by way of explanation, but I hope that helps?

Just a reminder that PFC has been a short target for years and shorts were previously at c10% earlier last year. No RI, no short squeeze. Just an organic reduction in the months that followed.

I personally don’t see a RI as being likely this time at these levels. Too much dilution for very little capital benefit.

The idea that shorts need a RI to exit is just a basic misunderstanding of how things work, as others have called out.

The pressure is definitely more on the shorts over the next month or so. They are one positive RNS away from a squeeze. A favourable RNS about short term financing and they are toast.

PI LTH’s are not going to sell. We held at 15p pre RNS.

As for todays TR1 news, Schroeder’s have been in and out of PFC before. If anything the exit looks poorly timed on their part in terms of value. I’m just glad the TR1 wasn’t announced on the 1st of Dec pre the RNS on the 4th. That would have been catastrophic for sentiment at the time.

Hold!

Interesting to see the board reverting to the pre Dec 20th posts today as the SP nudges down daily.

The difference for me is that I’m not in panic mode or stressing this time. The update on the 20th has given me the info I need to asses the risk and to stay long. It’s not risk free but I now clearly understand the parameters of the risks involved. It might drop back to 20p but I’m now confident that will be a speculative short move and not inside information being leaked.

A few people asking “why hold”? For LTH it’s simple, we know the jump can come at any minute. The right RNS will more than double the SP and none of us want to be out when that happens after years of painfully averaging down.

Oh and Keeppluggingaway, it looks like you don’t have the capacity to take on feedback and are just here to troll, so onto the filter list with Tony, Snapper and Dogger you go. Very sad company to be in I’m afraid.

Keeppluggingaway, you clearly have something going on in your life that’s making you unhappy. Or maybe Christmas was hard and you’re on your own?

It’s not easy out there.

Try and take an objective view of how your posts look to the rest of the contributors on here though. You’re not invested in PFC, and yet you’ve posted nearly 200 times on the board, mostly with comments that are putting down or mocking other contributors.

You might be finding some small kick out of revelling in the losses of others, but it’s short lived isn’t it?

I hope you get the help you need fella, but for all our sakes including your own…..you should give it a rest from posting on here.

To add to Onwards explanation for the tax rules around the Directors share remuneration, it’s worth understanding the huge incentive these share awards give Directors to grow the share price to benefit fully from the shares issued.

Most deals like this are referred to as LTIP (Long Term Incentive Plans). They are structured to incentivise senior managers to drive shareholder value.

Usually they are issued as a percentage of annual salary eg if a Directors salary is £100k and their LTIP rates is 40% of base salary, they will be issued with £40k of shares based on the Sp value on the day of issue.The shares will be split into two types, RSU’s and SAR’s.

It’s the RSu’s that we’ve seen issued today but the value of the shares will will be dramatically less than when the LTIP was issued (probably issued at c70p & currently valued at c35p. After tax is deducted as per Onwards message, the value of their holding will be reduced by another 45%. In other words, to leverage the full value of their LTIP they need to get the share price back up above 70p

The real incentive comes with the SAR element of the LTIP award (Stock Appreciation Rights). These are “part” shares with a multiplier that can rise dramatically in value once the SP goes above the issue price. This is a massive incentive for the Directors to drive performance and SP value and to multiply the value of their SAR’s incrementally.

Sorry, a bit long winded but I thought it might be useful to show what a huge incentive these type of awards can be to the senior management of a business and how they keep them fully invested in driving the SP upwards.

I’m looking forward to seeing how the SP opens tomorrow.

There could be a push down early on to test sentiment but I suspect we’ll probably see the SP float between 37p & 41p over then next week or so.

An early new contract RNS in Jan would certainly give another welcome step up, but I think the next boost is more likely to come with clarity on the expected finance restructure / asset sale, where I hope we will get an update by Feb.

I feel extremely positive going into the New Year. I think the company is in its strongest position since 2016 / 2017 pre SFO. Once the funding / dilution questions are answered, I can’t see anything else getting in the way of incremental growth over the coming half decade.

Nice to see the Santa SP boost continuing today.

I’ll be happy if we can edge and hold in the 40’s for year end.

Sentiment seems to have turned since the update.

The de-ramping posts have lost any sting and seem increasingly detached from reality, which is nice.

With no formal update due until April, any news now will be RNS driven.

The likelihood is that any RNS will be positive…..new contracts are very likely, funding is likely to be resolved, even a takeover approach would be positive.

I see the risk of dilution becoming less likely, although it’s still possible.

What a difference a week makes!

Still a long way to break even for most of us LTH’s, but we can start to dream again about a 3 figure SP and good lord…..a profit!

😂

Thank you Pokerchips that’s lovely of you to say.

It’s been a big help to be in the company of the investors on this board over the last few weeks. We’ve all been through it.

I’m sure we’re all sharing in the relief of today’s update, although there’s a road still to travel before most of us see a break even!

Sorry for being over emotional at times, and I still feel bad for snapping at you Pokerchips!

Here’s to a brilliant Christmas and New Year……and a profitable 2024!!!

Robust and positive message from the senior execs on the call.

Tough questions around guarantees from JP Morgan but a solid answer from the Company about securing future guarantees.

No new news on specifics about improving the balance sheet. They said they aren’t going provide a running commentary but will update as plans are concluded.

Question about the first Tennet contract. Response is that they are in the engineering phase with the build starting in Malaysia. All on course.

Focus on geographic expansion and decommissioning. Expanding margins is medium term focus.

Performance guarantees “oxygen” of the industry. Typically provided by banks & insurance companies. Again, a robust answer.

Question about asset disposal. Confirmed that Asset solutions would not be part of this.

Thai Oil risk said to be around the timing of payment as to whether it will fall in to 2023 results.

All in all very positive with no deflection on answers from the Board.

Definitely feels like a company emerging from a tough few years and who are ready to grow.

Questions still ongoing on the call but kn feeling VERY positive listening to this.

Whatever happens on open, I’m holding.

This is an update for the future and for growth.

Before the SP collapse that started in October, my long term 2024 year end target was 200p. I see no reason from this update why that still shouldn’t be my target.

Over these 3 terrible months many of us LTH’s have been able to reduce our averages (and probably our life expectancy), and come out of this with a hugely strengthened position.

I don’t care that much what happens at 8am now (unless it goes stupidly stratospheric), the future looks bright for 2024.

Well done to everyone who kept the faith!

Best update I’ve seen from PFC in years!!!!

Liquidity issues under control and fantastic Tennet news.

Debt far less than we’d all been speculating.

Such a relief!!!!!!!

For some reason I seem to be struggling to get to sleep tonight. Can’t think why……

Good luck to my fellow over invested LTH’s. Let’s hope we all fare well on the morrow.

Neil, honestly fella I’m so sad you get satisfaction from this kind of sad gloating from the sidelines. Looking at your profile I can see that you’ve been doing the same on the ENET board today as well.

I know it’s tough at Christmas sitting there on your own with just the keyboard for company.

Watch “A Christmas Carol”. I’m guessing you’ve left it late in the day old fella, but there’s still time to turn your life around. Find your Tiny Tim and do something to make him happy. God bless us every one etc

Hi Poker,

I guess it will depend how much is revealed in the update tomorrow?

If the update doesn’t provide all the answers tomorrow (and let’s be honest, it probably won’t), a massive indicator of sentiment will be whether we see any Director buys as we enter the post update period..

I don’t believe I’ve seen any of the newer Directors make any notable purchases this year (outside of their contractual equity awards).

It would be a massive sign of support and a clear sign that dilution is unlikely if we saw some personal investment from the Board before the end of the year.

Thoughts?

Putting aside the “moths” who have been drawn to this board by the flame of PFC drama over the last few weeks, most LTH’s are battle scarred and used to the twists and turns of this share over the years.

We know that the company is in a better position than the SFO years. We’ve been through the ADNOC freeze, the 115p dilution and the COVID share price further collapse.

We know the journey that this company has been on over the years and we know painfully how much we’ve all had to invest to average down through that period.

None of our key II’s have bailed out, including Asfari. They’ve been on the same painful journey.

I don’t know any LTH’s who’ve sold during this last terrible two months. I’ve seen no TR1’s from II’s during this period.

We’re all in too deep and we’re not selling.

So given that the above accounts for over 60% of the business, I think we should be more confident going into Wednesday.

The shorts have exploited a gap between a £600k contract announcement and a trading update, presumably aided by a leak that was finally covered by the company in the 4th of December RNS.

Unless we have all been massively deceived by the BOD, I don’t think Wednesday will eb that bad. We’ll see a dip, but then 9 out of 10 of the last updates have resulted in a dip. Let’s be honest, there’s not much left to dip……and none of us are selling.

Hold firm and f**k the spectators who are just here for a show.

It looks like the share price will continue to be managed within a tight band around the 20p mark, right into Wednesday.

It suggests no significant exit of shorts, who presumably are now happy to hold position at c9% through until the company update.

My current thoughts are that it’s unlikely that there will be a sliver bullet either way in the update. The key messages around liquidity, debt reduction, legacy contracts and pre contract funding will obviously drive sentiment. Clarity around the likelihood of a RI or other dilution will be vital for LTH’s confidence.

Unfortunately over the years PFC have become notorious for woolly, ambiguous trading updates that rarely reflect PI concerns or overriding sentiment. Hopefully we’ll see less of that arrogance this time round with a clear statement of intent and evidence of real leadership and vision from the CEO.

With no further official update due until April, a commitment for monthly updates would be something I’d like to see, although it’s unlikely.